Fantasy Football: AFC South Preview

Matt Pfleger's next stop on his fantasy-football tour is in the very tough AFC South.

by Matt Pfleger (Scribe)

5

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Preview/Prediction

July 22, 2008

NFL, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Fantasy Football, Preview/Prediction

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For the past few years, the only quarterback to speak of in the AFC South had been in Indy, with Peyton Manning being at the top of both the division and the league.

Times are changing, as three teams represented the AFC South in the playoffs, and all four teams feature quarterbacks that are solid fantasy options. Good QB play goes a long way, but each team has some question marks entering the fantasy-football season.

 

Houston Texans

Andre Johnson, WR—It was an up-and-down season for Johnson last year. I drafted him fairly high, as my No. 1 receiver, and he responded with 262 yards and three touchdowns in two games out of the gate.

He finished the season with 60 catches, 851 yards, and eight TDs in only nine games, missing seven games with a knee injury. He finished the season showing no ill effects from the injury, registering at least 74 yards in every game but one, and catching a TD in all but two.

The frustrating part about Johnson was that he caught a lot of balls, but couldn't get downfield or in the end zone. With Matt Schaub at the helm, those days seem behind him. Barring injury, I expect a huge year from Andre Johnson, especially in PPR leagues.

Defense/ST—The front seven of this defense is loaded with youth, talent, and former high-draft picks. They will put up sacks in bunches from the edge (Mario Williams and Roosevelt Colvin) and up the middle (Amobie Okoye and DeMeco Ryans), making life difficult for offensive lines.

If they can find someone in the back end, opposite Dunta Robinson, this team could be valuable at least as a spot start or matchup play.

SleeperSteve Slaton, RB—A quick look at the depth chart makes it seem like the Texans are loaded at running back, but Slaton could have a big opportunity as the season progresses.

Last year's top rusher Ron Dayne is gone, and while the team has invested heavily in Ahman Green, he is hardly the picture of health. Chris Brown is also a threat to miss time, so Slaton could be the guy. A shifty back in Alex Gibb's zone-blocking system could be dangerous.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Reggie Wayne, WR—This could be the season that Wayne takes over as the No. 1 option in the Colts' offense. Harrison's health is a big question mark entering the season, but Wayne thrived last year, despite extra attention from defenses.

He caught 103 passes for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns, playing every game for the sixth consecutive season (he's only missed three in his career—his rookie season). Some drafters have downgraded Harrison the past few seasons, expecting a decline, and it could finally be here.

Dominic Rhodes, RB—After a lost season in Oakland, Rhodes returns to the Colts, again backing up a great fantasy option, as he did with Edgerrin James. He is the obvious handcuff for Joseph Addai, and would be a nice option if any injury were to occur. He rushed for 237 yards and a touchdown in the final two games of last season, filling in for an injured Justin Fargas.

SleeperDefense/ST—It seems like every season the Colts let go of a few key defensive starters, but that didn't happen this season. This team will be playing with a lot of leads, meaning that opposing offenses will have to pass almost exclusively to catch up.

This will give D-ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney plenty of sack opportunities, and the young secondary of CBs Jackson, Jennings, Hayden, and Hughes, and safeties Sanders and Bethea will have plenty of turnovers.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

David Garrard, QB—After beating out former top-10 pick Byron Leftwich, Garrard continued to surprise last season by having one of the best QB ratings in the league, going without an interception until Week 13 and throwing 18 touchdowns.

I have Garrard as my fifth-rated quarterback entering the season, as the Jags made a concerted effort to get him some wide-receiver help. This is still a run-first team, but David Garrard should have an even bigger season with his new weapons and a full year as a starter under his belt.

Defense/ST—Jacksonville's defense has always been solid, fantasy-wise, but I look for them to take the next step this season. New coordinator Gregg Williams is an aggressor, and has considerably more talent in the front seven than he did in Washington.

The addition of Drayton Florence should take pressure off of Rashean Mathis and ball-hawking safety Reggie Nelson. Rookie defensive ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves should help in the rotation, keeping Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward fresh. Expect more sacks and more turnovers.

SleeperMarcedes Lewis, TE—The enormous, former first-round pick (6'6") is a great end-zone threat, and could put up big TD numbers at a thin position that fantasy players are always looking to upgrade. He also has good speed for his size, and is a threat after the catch in the flat. He should have an increased role in a more balanced offense this season.

 

Tennessee Titans

Vince Young, QB—After a very productive rookie season, the Madden Cover Curse may have had a hand in Young's season last year. While his completions, percentage, and QB rating were up, the stats that matter for fantasy were very disappointing.

His interceptions almost doubled his touchdowns, throwing 17 picks as opposed to only nine TDs, and he rushed for only 400 yards and three touchdowns. For whatever reason, the team insisted on drafting running backs and failed to surround their franchise QB with weapons.

He will be drafted highly based on name value, but he is a better real life quarterback than a fantasy one. I'm staying away.

Alge Crumpler, TE—Crumpler had a down year last season, but has still finished with at least five touchdowns for the fourth consecutive season. He certainly will become a favorite target of Young's and should return to the productivity of a few seasons ago, when he was consistently getting to over 750 yards.

Other Notes—I thought long and hard about this team, and I don't see a lot of fantasy upside. LenDale White had a sold season, but his productivity should be hampered by the presence of Chris Henry and Chris Johnson.

The WR corps leaves a lot to be desired, and while Roydell Williams seemed to get a lot of looks from Young, he had several drops and is, well, Roydell Williams. I don't think any of the receivers will be very productive, and other than Albert Haynesworth, Keith Bulluck, and a good tandem of safeties in Hope and Griffin, the defense doesn't have much.

If this team has issues putting the ball in the end zone, K Rob Bironas could have excellent field-goal opportunities.

 

The AFC South should be extremely competitive again this season, especially in interdivisional games. The Texans, Jags, and Titans all took steps toward closing in on the Colts last year, and the division should have at least two playoff teams again this season, much to the delight of fantasy players.

Preview/Prediction

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comments (5) write a comment »

  1. I am starting a Bleacher Report Fantasy League at RotoHog. If you are interested please email me at wrongarm300@yahoo.com

    RotoHog's leagues have no maximum team limit, so the more the better. Let's find out who the best Fantasy Football player is here at the Bleacher Report!!

  2. I disagree with what you said about the Titans. David Thronton is a talented outside linebacker as well. Cortland Finnegan had several tackles last year. Tony Brown was a good DT behind Haynesworth. Kyle Vanden Bosch made the Pro-Bowl, and I don't think I need to say much about Jevon Kearse, "The Freak". The Titans defense was top 5 last year, and will probably be top 10 at least this year.

    1. In real life I absolutely agree, but fantasy wise I don't think they will put up a high sack total or get a lot of turn-overs relative to other options. They certainly wouldnt burn you because they are solid but I think the inabilties of the offense are going to put a lot of pressure on them too.

  3. I wouldn't want to play in this division, tough teams.

  4. Jevon Kearse is not a "Freak" anymore. Don't expect a big impact from him.

    This is a tough division, probably the second toughest behind, the NFC East.

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