IconFor the 52nd year, the Florida State Seminoles and Florida Gators will square off for state bragging rights.
 
UF leads the series, 30-19-2.
 
Starting in the early 90s—and climaxing during the Spurrier era—the game took on national implications.
 
It was not uncommon for the winner of that game to vault themselves into the national title game.

Now, UF is resurgent after a brief, Ron Zook-led hiatus, and the 'Noles seem to have stemmed the free fall of the last seven years.
 
What lies in store for this year’s game? I think three things will play key roles in determining the outcome:
 
 
First, the play of the Seminole defensive unit. It is not the best in the nation, but it is far above average. To this point in the season, FSU has held their opponents to just under 100 yards rushing per game.
 
However, they have given up nearly 250 yards in the air.

The 'Noles front seven are as strong as they have ever been. There are plenty of run-stoppers, and—typical for Mickey Andrews—there are plenty of subs to fill in. Often the second team is as capable as the starting team.

The FSU defense will not be the best defense the 8-3 Gators have seen this year. That distinction would go to LSU, Georgia, or Auburn. Not coincidentally, UF lost those three games.
 
While they averaged over 500 ypg in their eight victories, the Gators' total offense was 312 yards against Auburn, 314 against LSU, and 343 against UGA.
 
The Seminole defense is giving up an average of 336 yards per game.

However, the Noles secondary has become highly suspect over the last three games. For some reason, FSU safeties have failed to cover deep passes. It does not matter if the opposing offense is running a sideline go-route, or a post over the middle of the field—Seminole safeties will run up to the line of scrimmage against play action, or else cover the short area behind the linebackers.

There were times in the BC and VT games when FSU's cornerbacks would release opposing wide receivers into the middle expecting help over the top from the cover two. Guess what? That help was not there.

Granted, Matt Ryan made some incredibly accurate deep throws, for which he should receive credit. However, not having a safety nearby dramatically increases the likelihood of completion.
 
At the time, I thought this blown coverage was a fluke, or the result of some confusion. I realize now it was the start of an epidemic.
 
On top of that, our cornerbacks—who are fast and have played well this year—have been taught not to look for the football. Since there is no face-guarding rule in college football, they are taught to stay with their wide-receiver, play the body, then turn their heads. If they cannot get their way, they can simply face guard.
 
That sounds good in theory, but in practice it allows FSU to get beat terribly on the deep ball. Multiple times this year, Patrick Robinson, Tony Carter, and Michael Ray Garvin have had passes drop in over their heads or to their side because they simply did not know where the ball was. (This link will confirm what we have already suspected http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/photos?photoId=1732877&gameId=273140259 )

FSU should start teaching this technique to outfielders in baseball: Watch the ball as it comes off the bat—then take your eyes from it, run to your spot, then try and find it before it hits you in the head or lands on the ground.
 
Vision is the most-utilized sense on the football field—why take it away? I have seen some deaf football players, but I have never seen any blind ones.
 
(What about ones who could not taste? Or smell? That probably would help. "Man, this guy really stinks. I hate lining up next to him. Does he ever shower?"
 
"I have no idea; I can't smell a thing. Does not bother me a bit.")
 
 
Second, Florida has Superman.
 
IconI use Superman, because I once called him Tebow and my brother said, "Watch it, Shawn. Do not take the Lord’s name in vain."
 
However, Clint from Dothan—a guy we tailgated with in Jacksonville for the Alabama game—was adamant that Tebow was not God. At one point while watching the UF-Auburn game, he yelled out “Tebow ain’t God! He ain’t Jesus! He ain’t Moses! And I’ll bet you a million dollars he ain’t gonna convert this G-D--- third down!”
 
(For the record, he would have had the million dollars, and for what it's worth he did not have to change his G-D---- to a T----D---.)

That being said, Tebow can change a game. He has the ability to run and pick up yardage. He is such a threat that opposing linemen rush up field, linebackers fill gaps, and safeties rush the line. That's when he jab-steps forward like a baby deer with a broken leg, steps back, play-actions to himself, and throws a ball 45 yards downfield to a naked receiver.
 
This is a problem for Florida State. I have already noted that their secondary is weak. The front seven is not, but it will take eleven guys out there to stop Tebow.
 
While Tebow will get his yardage, FSU cannot let people like Percy Harvin score all over us. Harvin is a legit player. If Meyer were the Father and Tebow were the Son, then Harvin would be the Holy Ghost, because no one can see him. He is lightning. Harvin is underrated due to all the attention showered on Tebow, but he will be a better NFL player because of his speed.

The Seminole defense should rush four, try to stop the run, blitz sparingly and make Tebow beat them with his arm while he is still in the pocket. When Florida played Ole Miss game, the Rebels played a four-man front and dropped their defensive ends into spies to prevent Tebow from escaping the pocket. It Ole Miss back in the game, and gave them a chance to win.

FSU has the speed and depth in their front seven to stop Tebow from going crazy. They should play Florida like the Pistons played the Lakers: Let Shaq get his 35 a game. Let Kobe get his 30. But contain, contain, contain—and make the other players get the rest.
 
If Tebow wants to break off a run every third down, let him. Hits will rack up. He will get tired. But as long as he does not beat us deep, FSU will be able to stay in the game.

http://snap.tbo.com/images/photos/100038/2006/12/28/gallery/1548085.jpg
Third, the game is at Florida.
 
The Swamp is probably the toughest venue in college football. The loudest game I have ever heard took place there. In 1993, against Florida State, the Gators made a fourth-quarter comeback. Jack Jackson made a circus catch for a touchdown, and Charlie Ward was then sacked on the next play from scrimmage.
 
My ears were ringing so I actually put my fingers in them. The noise leveled off two plays later when Warrick Dunn went 70 yards for a TD. But that place is loud.

On top the crowd noise, the Florida band's music is piped in through the sound speakers. Genius, or compensation for a 100-person marching band? Either way, the Pride of the Sunshine State—who might be better termed the Pride of Bose Speakers—helps to make the game inordinately loud.

Two years ago, I went up to Gainesville for the FSU game. The Seminoles had kept it close until the end of the first half, so their fans were a little vocal. I was sitting in the 'Noles section at the top of the stands near the peak of Mt. Everest. Several members of the FSU baseball team were seated with us.
 
We picked out a Gator fan about 18 rows down and sent someone to get his attention. Why, you might ask? Well he had an incredible mullet. I mean, it was flowing. It was wavy and dirty blonde—plus, he was wearing a nasty white tank top with a Gator coming out of the back of it, jean shorts, and work boots (even UF players wear jean shorts. check this link http://misterirrelevant.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/tebow-jorts.jpg ). He was not sure why, but he received a standing ovation from the enemy. As a visiting team, you cannot compete with that.

Due to a lack of solid defense on both sides, I predict a rather high scoring affair. Jimbo will not let Weatherford lose this game, but due to a lack of playmakers and their affinity for kicking field goals, FSU will be outscored 31-20.
 
As a result, I predict the Gators will win their fourth in a row. But as Spurrier would always say, "This game isn’t the important one to us. It’s the SEC title game that matters."
 
I guess that is true. Good luck in Atlanta, Gators.