THREE UP/THREE DOWN
Hitters
- Howie Kendrick, 2B—LAA (UP) The contact-hitting second baseman of the Angels has finally warmed up after suffering a series of injuries in mid-April that sidelined him for a good five to six weeks of the season. Upon returning, Kendrick struggled to a .247 batting average in June, but has picked it up in July, hitting .345, with his first two home runs of the season, and 13 RBI. Kendrick does not project to have much, if any, power, but his excellent ability to stroke base hits should keep him around the .300 mark while he pitches in a handful of steals.
- Justin Morneau, 1B—MIN (UP) The Twins’ first baseman is having quite a month. Not only did he score the winning run for the American League in the All-Star Game, and very quietly win the Home Run Derby, but he has hit .400 with three home runs, nine doubles, 10 RBI, and walked 11 times to just four strikeouts to date in July. His OPS for the month is a league leading 1.227. He also enjoys a career .948 OPS in the month of July, by far his best monthly split. The main difference this season to 2007, when he hit just .271, is that he has hit more line drives. He is currently hitting 19.1 percent as compared to 15.9 percent last season. Even with the current rate, his batting average will be tough to maintain, but there is no reason that Morneau should not hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs and another 110-plus RBI.
- Jim Thome, DH—CHW (UP) The 37-year-old slugging DH has found his stroke after hitting just .207 through May. Over the past six weeks, Thome has hit .317 with eight home runs and 24 RBI and is again showing the plate discipline that we have grown accustomed to from Thome. He has 24 walks to 31 strikeouts over these 147 plate appearances. For the season, he is now hitting .253 with 18 home runs and 53 RBI. The batting average should not increase much more, likely into the .260 range, but Thome should have a good shot at another 30-home-run season.
- Mark Ellis, 2B—OAK (DOWN) Hot and cold has been Ellis’ season. He hit .261 in April, .213 in May, .274 in June, and again a cold .164 in July. And really, the good months haven’t even been that hot. A year after hitting .276 with 19 home runs, Ellis is hitting .236 with nine home runs. Even with the decline in production, there are positives, Ellis is stealing more bases and showing a career best BB/K ratio. These should be making Ellis a very valuable second baseman, but his BABIP of .249 is holding him back. This should not continue and allow Ellis to return into the .260s by seasons end.
- Carlos Gomez, OF—MIN (DOWN) You can’t get much colder than Carlos Gomez is right now. He is just five for his last 52 at-bats, dropping his season average to .250. He also has no stolen bases since June 30, and has no home runs since June 6. This really should not surprise us as he is in his first full season and young players can be streaky. But one thing that was supposed to give Gomez value was speed, which is not supposed to disappear as it has. Gomez stole 17 bases through May, but has just four since. With his poor eye at the plate, and his low 16 percent line-drive rate, Gomez will be hard pressed to keep his batting average where it’s at. It is about time to make the call with Gomez and drop him, just as the Twins should do with him in the batting order.
- Gary Matthews Jr., OF—LAA (DOWN) It’s also officially past time to drop Matthews Jr., if you haven’t already. An MRI revealed a slight tear in his left knee. Yet, the Angels are not looking to DL him. He will likely ride the bench, as he was struggling to stay in the lineup anyways, hitting just .235. I guess a 24 percent strikeout rate with a .288 BABIP do not match very well. With his decreased playing time in favor of Juan Rivera, and now the injury, it will be hard for Matthews to give much value the remainder of the season. And do not believe the hype again next year and draft him.
Pitchers
- Joba Chamberlin, SP—NYY (UP) If there were any questions about Chamberlin’s transition into the rotation, there shouldn’t be any more. While he has yet to stretch out seven innings, Chamberlin has thrown at least six innings in four of his past five outings, and he has 17 strikeouts to just one walk over his past two starts. He just keeps looking better each time out as he settles into his new role. In nine starts, Chamberlin is now 1-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 47.2 innings. The wins should start coming now that he is throwing enough innings to qualify for victories. He already has four no decisions in which he threw at least five innings.
- Joe Nathan, CL—MIN (UP) Closers don’t get much better than Joe Nathan. The ace of the Twins' bullpen is again having a fantastic season. He’s earned 27 saves to go along with a miniscule 1.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is mostly due to an unsustainable 97 percent strand rate, but even so, he is inducing a career high 49.5 percent groundballs, holding the opposition to a .194 batting average, and striking out 10.18 batters per nine innings. It will be tough to duplicate his amazing 2005 and 2006 seasons, but Nathan is well on his way.
- Tim Wakefield, SP—BOS (UP) The knuckler is having his best season in years. Through Sunday night's start in Los Angeles, Wakefield has a 6-7 record, but a very good 3.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Over his last 10 starts, he is only 3-4, but has an ERA of 2.56 and has pitched seven innings or more in nine of these 10 starts. I, however, remain skeptical of any knuckleballer when it comes to fantasy baseball. At anytime, his fortune will change. Looking into the stats, Wakefield has been rather lucky with BABIP against. It is a mere .237 as compared to his career .281 mark. But at the same time, I think to myself how odd the knuckleball is and how this maybe is how Wakefield’s season continues.
- Scott Kazmir, SP—TB (DOWN) Kazmir came off of the disabled list on fire in May and into June, going 6-1 in his first seven starts, but has just one win and has thrown six innings only twice in seven starts since June 6. Over this time frame, Kazmir’s ERA is 4.97, as his walks have returned. Kazmir has a BB/9 of 4.26 over these starts. For the season, it remains 3.36, the second best in his career. This is likely just a slump that Kazmir does tend to go through at times. Ride it out with him, and he will be just fine. You never know when he will snap out of it and strikeout 12 while throwing a shutout. He will remain one of the top-10 pitchers in the league.
Today's Must Reads
- Jesse Litsch, SP—TOR (DOWN) Litsch has allowed 25 hits over his past 13.2 innings. This likely is just one of those bad stretches that a pitcher goes through. Heck, John Lackey is in the middle of one right now, but for Litsch, it serves as a reminder that he is still a very hittable pitcher who should not be viewed as an upper-tier guy, as he was looking like a month ago. Following his May 29 performance against Oakland, when he went seven scoreless innings, lowering his ERA to 3.16, Litsch has made eight starts. In these starts, he is 1-5 with a 5.82 ERA. He should steady soon, but be realistic in expectations the rest of the way.
- Greg Smith, SP—OAK (DOWN) It has been a steady progression towards bad for Smith this season. His monthly ERA totals read 2.73, 2.97, 4.50, and now 6.14 in July. And what is worse is that over the past three starts, Smith has 12 walks to just five strikeouts. This factor was key to his successful start. Through May, Smith had 23 walks to 49 strikeouts. Until we see improvement here in at least consecutive starts, stay away. His 3.79 ERA does look nice, but remember that over his past nine starts, his ERA is 4.97, while he has walked more than he has struck out.
INJURY REPORT
The injury woes continue for the Toronto Blue Jays as both Vernon Wells and Dustin McGowan were placed on the disabled list over the past two weeks. Wells is down for the second time, this time with a hamstring strain that will sideline him four to six weeks.
McGowan did receive some good news on his shoulder injury. An MRI revealed inflammation and no tear to the rotator cuff. McGowan will be out for at least four weeks.
Just as the Jays lose a starter, another will return. Shaun Marcum is rumored to be starting on Tuesday night. In his first, and likely only, rehab start, Marcum was limited to four innings of work. He struck out six and did not allow any baserunners.
The White Sox placed struggling right-hander Jose Contreras on the disabled list with elbow tendonitis. He has quickly fallen after looking nearly unhittable three weeks ago. Look for Lance Broadway to be recalled from AAA to take his place.
David Ortiz is set to return this week from his wrist injury that has now sidelined him about six weeks. This will no doubt give his fantasy owners a much-needed boost as we enter the second half of the season. He is said to be in line for activation on Friday.
Positive news on a couple of injured Indians. Fausto Carmona threw a successful rehab start in AA, allowing one run in five innings. He will likely need just one more outing before being recalled the early next week. Victor Martinez is also healing and will start swinging a bat in the next week. He will be ready to go by mid-August.
The Mariners have continued to shutdown Erik Bedard due to a stiff shoulder and back. He was placed on the disabled list retroactive to July 5. He likely will now be out through July, with no set schedule for a return.
The Rays activated closer Troy Percival from the disabled list Sunday after two-and-a-half weeks on the shelf. Percival is being placed right back into the closers role full-time, so adjust your rosters accordingly.
The Yankees reportedly are getting close to calling it a season with Hideki Matsui and his sore knee. He was close to returning, but a setback is making surgery a more appealing option. Stay tuned. As one Yankee outfielder continues on the disabled list, another, Johnny Damon, is set to return this week. Damon has participated in batting practice and will likely be activated for this weekend’s Red Sox series.
Frank Thomas is nearing a return to the Oakland lineup from a quadriceps injury that has sidelined him since May 29. He began hitting some soft-toss and will begin live batting practice this week in hopes of returning by the end of the month.
The Jed Lowrie era may have officially begun, as Julio Lugo strained his left quad running out a grounder last Friday. This will sideline Lugo four to six weeks, giving Lowrie an extended look as the Sox shortstop.
The Twins’ Michael Cuddyer continues to have enough pain in his index finger that he has yet to begin any rehab, even though he is eligible to be activated from the disabled list. No timetable has been set for his return, which will allow Denard Span to continue getting a good look in Minnesota.
Mariners starting pitcher Carlos Silva left his start Sunday with lower back stiffness after serving up a home run. No word on if he will be forced to the disabled list. If he should, look for Ryan Rowland-Smith to make a couple starts.
WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)
- Hank Blalock, 3B—TEX After multiple tries, Blalock was finally activated from the disabled list. He is likely widely available in leagues and should be picked up as a cheap source of potential power, key word being potential. Because he had problems with carpal tunnel in his wrist, some power from his bat may be gone. Blalock is a good hitter who was having a fine season before going down in late April. As a refresher, Blalock was hitting .299 with three home runs and seven RBI. In his first action over the weekend, Blalock went one for nine. I wouldn’t view him as your starting third baseman for the rest of the year, but if he is truly healthy, he could be a sleeper for the second half.
- Adam Lind, OF—TOR With the injury to Vernon Wells, Adam Lind is now playing everyday in the Blue Jays' outfield. In fact, Lind has hit safely in 12 of his last 14 games to raise his batting average to .261. He also has hit four home runs and 19 RBI. With Lind striking out just 11.3 percent of the time, he should be able to keep his batting average up in the .270-.280 range. He is currently hitting just 12 percent line drives, but in such a small sample size, that will increase towards his career 18 percent. He will not give many, if any, stolen bases, but look for Lind to be a solid fourth fantasy outfielder in mixed leagues.
- Clay Buchholz, SP—BOS After his poor starts since being recalled from Pawtucket, this does not look like a typical player to recommend, but I am one who loves the talent of this kid, and that outweighs a few bad starts in my mind. Even with the 2-5 record and 5.88 ERA, Buchholz still shows a Fielding Independent ERA of 3.61. He has tremendous strikeout ability and is currently being burnt by a low strand rate of 60 percent. He is also walking 4.67 batters per nine innings, but that is likely not to continue, as his minor-league track record suggests that he should walk fewer than three. In fact, the last seven starts in AAA before his recall, Buchholz walked two or less batters each game. He likely was dropped over the weekend in leagues, and I’d take a flyer on him. The potential reward outweighs the risk.
- Sean Gallagher, SP—OAK A key piece to the Rich Harden trade to the Cubs, Gallagher comes to the A’s with an immediate chance to be a major contributor. For whatever reason, Gallagher fell out of favor in the Windy City, even with solid production. For the season, Gallagher is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 70.2 innings. Moving to the Coliseum will only help his cause with its spacious playing field. Gallagher will not be an ace of the staff, but should be an average to above-average pitcher that will give decent strikeout totals. He should give about six wins and a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way.
FUTURES MARKET
Francisco Liriano is as ready as he could ever be, and reportedly is looking to file a grievance against the Twins for keeping him stashed in AAA. There is even a rumor that he would be brought up as a relief pitcher, as crazy as that sounds. As bad as this situation is, it does say a lot about the Twins’ starting rotation depth. Liriano has four straight quality starts for Rochester, allowing just a single run over 28 innings, while striking out 32 to just three walks. Grab and stash Liriano if he is somehow still available, the Twins have to promote him very soon.
Since the last Futures Market report two weeks ago, the American League has welcomed in a top power prospect in Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was brought over to the Indians in the Sabathia deal, as we all know. He is currently in AA Akron, where he has a .316 batting average, a home run, and five RBI in 19 at-bats since the acquisition.
LaPorta participated in the Futures game last week and will be a part of Team USA this summer in the Olympics.
Since falling to the fourth round of the 2007 draft, Jake Arrieta has impressed in his first year as a professional. After a successful winter league, Arrieta was slotted in high-A ball this season. In 19 starts, Arrieta has just a 6-5 record, but an impressive 3.06 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 106 innings. He also participated in the Futures Game and pitched a scoreless inning in relief.
In another trade between leagues, second-base prospect Adrian Cardenas was acquired by the Athletics in the Joe Blanton deal to Philadelphia. Cardenas was listed as the Phillies No. 2 prospect and projects as “a Ray Durham-type hitter, minus the stolen bases” according to Baseball Prospectus. For the season, Cardenas is hitting .307 with four home runs and 16 stolen bases.
The brand new No. 1 overall pick of the Tampa Rays from 2008’s draft, Tim Beckham, is currently beginning his career in Rookie League Princeton. The young shortstop is hitting .203 with one extra-base hit in 59 at-bats thus far in his professional career. It’s way too early to make any judgments on him, but it is worth noting once in a while the progress of this big-time prospect.
BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK
- Buy – Alex Rios, OF—TOR While I do not expect a huge turnaround in the second half of the season for Rios, for the right price, he could be a solid buy at this time. With a career high 24 stolen bases, Rios is running more than ever before. He should also start hitting home runs at any time. Rios has hit a career low five percent of flyballs over the fence, and is hitting just 33 percent of balls in play in the air. This is down from 44 percent last season. When he does start hitting home runs, I wouldn’t expect much more than 10 the rest of the way, but mixed in with the good speed, the additional power will make Rios a much more valuable fantasy player. Just don’t expect the batting average to climb back into the .300 range. Rios has been rather lucky with his .348 BABIP and is striking out at career high rates.
- Sell – Armando Galarraga, SP—DET The wheels may be about ready to fall off. As I was writing this, Galarraga gave up three home runs to the Orioles on Friday night. For the season, he remains 7-4 with a solid 3.41 ERA in 100.1 innings. What is worrisome is that he is generally a less-than-overpowering starter who is historically very average. In fact, the lowest WHIP of his minor-league career was 1.32 in AA last season. Right now, his WHIP is at 1.20, but 1.52 over his past five starts with an ERA of 4.34. Also of note, his BABIP against of .246 is nearly 40 points lower than his expected BABIP of .282. This does not mean it will regress completely to that number, but the odds are that it will rise. This will lead to more hits and runs in the second half of the season, as his ERA should regress towards his Fielding Independent ERA of 4.59. Sell his current ERA and winning record on an improving Tigers ball club.
RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP-10 ELIGIBLE AL CATCHERS
1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Jorge Posada, NYY
3. A.J. Pierzynski, CHW
4. Victor Martinez, CLE - DL
5. Dionner Navarro, TB
6. Ivan Rodriguez, DET
7. Ramon Hernandez, BAL
8. Kelly Shoppach, CLE
9. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
10. Jeff Clement, SEA
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