Adam Scott shall now be known as “The Phoenix.”
I picked him two weeks ago to win at Quail Hollow. Too bad that was the week he decided he was going to miss his second cut of the season. You won’t believe this one, but go back in the archives and check it out…
I also picked Adam Scott one other time this year. That’s right, the Northern Trust Open, and guess what? Yep, his FIRST cut of the season. No more Adam Scott for me, for his sake and for the sake of my sanity.
Let’s move on to this week's HP Byron Nelson Classic. This is normally a prestigious event, yet this year's field is somewhat lacking in talent. The odds on favorite is Hunter Mahan at or around 16:1 odds. I love Hunter Mahan, but I am not nearly as high on him as most people this week. In six attempts he has missed two cuts and his best finish is a paltry tie for 42nd place in 2008.
TPC Four Seasons at Las Colinas is not the most demanding track on the tour and really does not have any huge advantages for any particular style or type of player. There have been a variety of winners over the past 10 years ranging from superstars Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia to tour mainstays Brett Wetterich and Rory Sabbatini. It’s anyone’s guess at Las Colinas this week.
As far as Yahoo fantasy goes, my mediocrity continues on. I have now amassed 2633 points on the year. I now trail ALL of the Yahoo experts in the following order; Planer by 20, Vara by 92, Arkush by 125, and Romig by 301. I need some major movement this week to catch Romig at this point. I am still in the 62nd percentile in FOHM and in the 71st percentile overall.
Here is who I am throwing to the wolves this week:
Start Kenny Perry
Sit Scott Verplank
Start Dustin Johnson
Sit Alex Prugh
Start Ben Crane
Sit Rickie Fowler
Let’s face it, this guy is one of the prominent young gunners carrying the PGA right now. He is not the flashiest guy out there, but he is fun to watch. It’s rare to see such a bomber of the ball have such a great putting stroke as well.
Dustin, who has only missed two cuts this year, has kind of been trudging along these past five events. Finally he arrives at a course that he seems to like, having placed fourth here last year. Johnson can catapult himself up out of his ninth place spot in the FedEx Cup race with a win here this week.
Check out these numbers:
- Third in Driving Distance at 302.2 yards
- Second in Par Breakers at 24.58 percent
- Leads the tour in eagles made with 11
I think that Johnson’s long drives will play to his advantage nicely this week, so he is my favorite in the field this week at 20:1 odds.
I was a little surprised there was not more value here this week, but Fowler has seemed to get a handle on his erratic play lately only missing one cut in his last five efforts. By the way, two of those last five efforts were Top 10 finishes.
It really is only a matter of time until this kid nails his first victory. When he is on, he is ON and he can score very, very low. After all, he does have four top 10's on the year.
Check these numbers on Fowler:
- 11th in Total Driving (combo of distance AND accuracy)
- 25th in GIR at 68.94 percent
- Fourth in making putts between 15 and 20 feet at 27.4 percent
I really want to just pick this guy for every event until he wins. At 28:1 odds I am pushing in my chips with Rickie Fowler this week.
I think I may just start calling him “The Texas Kid.”
It was disappointing to watch him crumble on the last three holes last week, when he had an opportunity to birdie out to force a playoff with Adam Scott. He seemed to be a sure thing for at least a Top Five finish, but instead he ended up in a tie for 13th.
For some reason the Texas swing is where Hoffman plays his best golf. In four attempts at Las Colinas he has only missed the cut once and has two Top 10 finishes. I know he likes this place.
Hoffman has missed a number of cuts this year, but like I said, I know he loves playing these Texas tracks, so he should have a decent chance in this field this week.
Look at some of Hoffman’s numbers:
- 16th in Driving Distance at 292 yards
- 25th in All Around ranking
- 30th in Par Breakers at 21.90 percent
I have a good feeling about the bad-haired surfer dude form SoCal this week, so take a look at him with 30:1 odds.
Let’s face it, Scott Verplank’s greatest victory in his opinion was winning this event back in 2008. It is one of his favorite events to play in. So what if it’s in his back yard?
He's had terrific success on this track over the years, and he’s just one of those guys you can’t pass up this week. Accuracy is Verplank’s strong point which will give him an advantage over the rest of the field.
Look at these stats for Scotty:
- 12th in Driving Accuracy at 70.02 percent
- 20th in Putts Per Round at 28.41 percent
- Fifth on tour in Round Three Scoring Average at 69 strokes.
Take my word that Scott Verplank will contend at this event. He is sitting on most books at 33:1 odds.
John Rollins has been hanging around the Top 25 pretty efficiently over his past five tries. He has two cuts in those five tries as well, yet like Verplank, Rollins has a decent history here at Las Colinas. He has only missed two cuts here in eight consecutive attempts. In the past he has had a handful of Top 25 or better finishes.
I have a feeling Rollins comes to play this week, searching out his first victory since last year’s Reno Tahoe Open.
Here are some numbers to consider:
- Sixth in Total Driving
- 21st in GIR at 69.12 percent
- Sixth-best Ball Striker on tour
I am rolling the dice a little with a solid player at Las Colinas. Give me John “roll-it-in” Rollins at 40:1 odds.
Okay now it's time for my long shot of the week.
I love how this Nationwide player has come on tour and found some success. I just wish he could carry it into his third and fourth rounds. He always seems to be on page one of the leader board on Thursday and Friday, but fades come the weekend.
Prugh has made nine of 14 cuts this year and has four Top 25 finishes, three of which have been in the top ten. I know in this field Prugh can come out and surprise on this track.
Check out some numbers on Alex:
- 13th in Driving Distance at 293.4 yards
- 12th in the All-Around ranking
- Sixth in Birdies Made with 180
- Third in Par 5 Performance at -75 strokes on the year
I think that for such a solid player, Prugh can easily be overlooked. I urge you to take a second peek as he is a whopping 125:1 odds of winning.
Good luck this week!