Liver's NFL Thanksgiving Picks: Packers to Cover Against the Lions

Adnan TezerSenior Writer INovember 21, 2007

IconHappy Thanksgiving to all.

The only thing I like about the holidays is that they give you a free drunk pass. Otherwise, they're American consumerism at its worst.

What better way to show everyone how much we love them than by spending as much money as possible?


With the exception of the Patriots and Steelers, the NFL's best teams play on Thanksgiving—so the Thursday games might be as good as it gets this weekend.

Incidentally, the 23-point spread in the Patriots-Eagles game is the largest in an NFL game since Tampa Bay was a 24-point dog to the defending Super Bowl Champion Steelers on December 5th, 1976.

The Steelers rolled 42-0.
On a more somber note, if this is the end for former Longhorn great Priest Holmes, he goes out with the same class and dignity he always played with.

The NFL needs more players like him.

Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Mike Leach, Bill Belichick, Bill Simmons, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.


Last week's record against the spread:

2007 record against the spread: 68-82-10

Yes, I admit it...I had a lousy fucking weekend.


Thursday, November 22

Green Bay at Detroit (+3 1⁄2)

If you’re going to watch any of these games,  it should be this one.

This is the first of two critical matchups between the two divisional foes to decide the NFC North. Green Bay is 9-1 and vying with the Cowboys for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. Detroit is on the Wild Card fringe after two poor showings the last two weeks.

You’re never quite sure what the Lions are going to roll out—but they ALWAYS play well on Thanksgiving.

All told, the Packers have the better defense and overall team, and Ryan Grant looks capable of providing the running game Green Bay has needed all year. The Lions offensive line has been vulnerable to good pass rushes, and the Packers have one of the best in the league.

Pick: Green Bay


N.Y. Jets (+14) at Dallas

The Jets shocked everyone by beating the Steelers last weekend—which hopefully will get the attention of Dallas’ still-suspect secondary.

Redskins QB Jason Campbell torched Dallas last weekend, and concerns remain about the secondary—especially safety Roy “It’s not my fault” Williams.

It’s not Roy's fault he’s slow and can’t judge the ball when it’s in the air. If I were the opposing QB, I'd look to ANYONE being covered by that No. 31 guy.

Not only can’t Roy cover—he never accepts responsibility. What a great team captain. If Williams makes the Pro Bowl again this year, the game will have lost all credibility.
The Jets will have to rely on the run game, which Dallas has been effective in shutting down all season. On the opposite side, the Cowboys ground attack should get well against the New York.

Given the way Tony Romo has been playing, look for him to repeat his performance from last Thanksgiving, when he threw for over 300 yards and five TDs.

Pick: Dallas


Indianapolis at Atlanta (+11 1⁄2)

At this point in the evening, we’ll all be drunk and any memories of this game will be spotty at best.

Which is just as well.

The ailing Colts are simply looking to survive the injury bug. If they can get past the Falcons, they’ll have 10 days to get healthy for the stretch run.

The Indy offense will need to be more effective then it was against the Chiefs last weekend. For the Falcons, it’s Joey Harrington’s turn again for musical QBs.

The season can’t end soon enough in Atlanta.

Pick: Indianapolis