Stephen Strasburg and the Recent History of Early Call-Ups

By all accounts, Stephen Strasburg looks to be one of the greatest pitching prospects in baseball history. Curt Schilling has even gone so far as to say he'll be the best pitcher in baseball when he inevitably makes his major league debut next month. Strasburg has obvious skills, but what does recent history tell us about bringing pitching prospects to the majors with only minimal minor league seasoning? Let's have a look.

Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum was drafted 10th overall in 2006, and played eight minor league games at the end of 2006. He then played five more minor league games at the start of 2007 before being called up to the Giants. As a rookie in 2007, he went 7-5 with 150 K’s in 146 innings, giving up less than a hit per inning and a 4.00 ERA. In 2008, he led the NL in winning percentage and strikeouts, finished with a 2.62 ERA, and won the Cy Young Award. In 2009 he led the NL in complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts again, and won the Cy Young Award. In 2010, he is 5-0 with a league leading 69 strikeouts and a 4.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 1.76 ERA.

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander was drafted in 2004 and spent most of 2005 in the minors, then made his major league debut at the end of the season and won the rookie of the year in 2006. Verlander has had his ups and downs, leading the league in winning percentage in 2007, losses in 2008 but then in wins in 2009. He also led the league in innings, batters faced, and strikeouts last season, and finished third in the Cy Young Award voting.

David Price

David Price was drafted in 2007, didn’t play in the minors until 2008, and was up with the Rays in September. Price had a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings in 2008 and played an important role in the Rays' 2008 World Series run before a merely solid in 2009, going 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 128.1 innings last season. This season, of course, he is 5-1 with a 2.03 ERA through seven starts.

Jim Abbott

In the last 30 years, the king of early debut pitching prospects has to be Jim Abbott. Born with only one hand, Abbott nevertheless went straight from the University of Michigan to the California Angels and, in his first year, went 12-12 with a 3.92 ERA. He actually enjoyed several solid years, but was never dominant, before going 2-18 in 1996 at the age of 28. He was out of baseball by the time he was 30.

Joba Chamberlain

Joba Chamberlain was drafted in 2006, and after 88.1 dominant minor league innings, he was brought up to the Yankees, where he famously posted the best ERA+ of any pitcher with a minimum of 10 games pitched in baseball history (1221). Not to say that Chamberlain has been dead in the water ever since, but it has been a bumpy ride for the guy. He was really great in limited action in 2008, rather mediocre in his first full season in 2009, and now he’s working out of the bullpen exclusively and doing fine.

Chad Cordero

Another 2003 draftee, Chad Cordero, went to the Expos that same year after 19 minor league relief appearances. He was dominant in 11 innings – 12 K’s, 1.64 ERA – and the following year he had a 2.94 ERA. Then, in 2005, he broke out in Washington, leading the NL with 47 saves and posting a 1.82 ERA. He was solid for two years after that, pitched only six games in 2008, and hasn’t been back to the majors since then. He is current pitching for Tacoma, Seattle’s AAA team, and has a 5.27 ERA in 13 innings. At the age of 28.

Mike Leake

Mike Leake was drafted eighth overall by the Reds in 2009 and came straight to the majors this season without any minor league experience. So far he is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA in 46.2 innings. While those numbers may look merely good, keep in mind he leads the Reds pitching staff in wins, ERA, fewest hits allowed, fewest homeruns allowed, and WHIP.

Rick Procello

Rick Porcello spent all of 2008 in the minors after being drafted in 2007, then spent the entire 2009 season with the Tigers at the age of 20. Porcello enjoyed a solid rookie year - 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 170.2 innings - but he also had some real warning signs. He managed a starling 89/52 K:BB ratio, gave up over hit per inning, and allowed 23 homeruns. This season, those red flags have resulted in a much less impressive 3-3 start with a 6.08 ERA so far.

Ryan Wagner

Ryan Wagner was drafted by the Reds in 2003, and he was brought to the majors that same year after nine innings of minor league ball. All he did upon of arrival was go 2-0 with 25 strikeouts in 21 innings and a 1.66 ERA. This is a performance he’s never replicated, and he's been out of the majors since 2007.

Andrew Miller

The best example of Why Not to Bring Up a Pitching Prospect Early might be Andrew Miller. Miller was drafted by the Tigers in 2006 and was with the big club by August after striking out nine and walking one in five Single-A innings. He was bad in 2006, better but still bad in 2007, traded to Florida and terrible in 2008, and better but not even solid in 2009. Right now, after four seasons in the majors, he is pitching in Single-A ball again on a rehab assignment.

Mark Prior

Drafted in 2001, Mark Prior had six starts in Double-A and three starts in Triple-A before joining the Cubs in 2002. In the rest of 2002, he went 6-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 116 innings. In 2003, he went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 245 strikeouts in 211 innings. So, basically Mark Prior was a smash success and proof that players should always be brought straight to the majors with minimal minor league seasoning. No cautionary tale here.

David Clyde

The biggest cautionary tale of all time would have to be David Clyde. Clyde was drafted number one overall by the Rangers in June of 1973 out of a high school in Houston, Texas, where he’d allowed three earned runs in 148 inning. For reasons having less to do with baseball and more to do with the Rangers financial struggles and the excitement this kid had generated in Texas, Clyde made his first major league start on June 27, 1973, the same month he had been drafted; it was the first sellout in Arlington Stadium history. He allowed one hit and two earned runs in five innings while striking out eight (and walking seven). In his second start, on July 2nd, he struck out six in six innings and allowed only four hits and one earned run. He remained with the Rangers for the remainder of the season, got tired around his eighth start (remember he’d already pitched 148 innings in high school that season), and finished the season with a 5.01 ERA. Struggles with control and injuries ensued, and the guy was out of baseball at 24.