Minnesota Twins: Previewing the Playoff Run, Part II, Pitching

Taking a peak at the Twins pitching staff reveals a lot of talent and a number of reasons to expect big things from the Twins down the stretch and into the future.

Scott Baker, RHSP

So far he's been the ace of the Twins starting staff. An ERA of 3.47 leads among Twins starters and he has a 6-2 record. He's enjoying career lows in WHIP, walks per game and xFIP (expected Fielding Independent ERA, a measure of pitching ability which mimics ERA and removes sources of confounds found in other, more traditional stats). If injury free, look for Baker to continue to dominate down the stretch.

Brian Bass, RHRP

Bass made the team out of spring training, which was quite a surprise and for the career minor leaguer it has to rank among the top events of his baseball life. He has, however, been struggling in the bullpen, with a 5.31 ERA in 57 2/3rds inning. His big problem is allowing home runs. Despite his struggles, his xFIP is 4.51 so he should be doing better than he is. However, he's still the low man on the ladder and his major league career hangs by a thread.

Nick Blackburn, RHSP

He's been one of the big surprises for the Twins. Three years ago, no one would have said Blackburn was on the fast track to the Majors. Now, he's 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA. Anything but a power pitcher, he relies on forcing hitters to put the ball in play weakly and by not giving up a lot of walks. His xFIP is 4.22 so there might be some regression in the second half but he still looks to have a great year.

Boof Bonser, RH

The hard luck story of the year for the Twins, Bonser has the worst ERA (6.50) of anyone on the team and a 3-6 record. What makes Bonser such a hard luck case is the fact he has very goo residual numbers. His slugging percentage allowed (SLGA) is at a career low, HR per Game (HR/G) ditto, xFIP ditto. Bonser should be having the best season of his career. Instead, he's wasting away in the bullpen as a the second mop-up guy. It will be interesting to see what happens to Bonser. I'd prefer he take Hernandez's spot in the rotation, if it weren't for Liriano.

Craig Breslow, LHRP

Breslow, picked off of waivers earlier this year, is the Twins other lefty specialist. So far, in limited appearances Brewslow has been very good. He has a 1.46 ERA, a .89 WHIP and a ridiculously low .146 SLGA. Because of the small sample size its hard to make solid predictions, but Breslow looks to be a decent LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY).

Jesse Crain, RHRP

Since the injury to Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain has been among the committee of relief pitchers who have had their roles scaled up in importance. Coming off an injury from last year, Crain isn't back to his great numbers from 2006. However, his velocity and control appear to be about where they were at before Crain got injured last year, which is a good sign. He's a power pitcher who relies on a mid-90's fastball. As the year goes on, he should continue to be a very important bullpen option for Ron Gardenhire.

Matt Guerrier, RHRP

With Pat Neshek out, Guerrier has become Gardnehire's most reliable fireman. Guerrier is doing very well this year, with a 3.35 ERA and 12 holds; and his numbers are completely lacking in flukiness. Barring injury, look to see Guerrier become the primary set-up guy for Joe Nathan.

Livan Hernandez, RHSP

He leads the team in Innings Pitched and wins despite having the worst ERA among the Twins starters. Hernandez is among the worst starting pitchers in the American League. His 28 PRC (pitcher's runs created) ranks him somewhere outside the top 50 qualified AL pitchers (The Hardball Times stat pages only have 50 players listed in any category); similarly Livan ranks 38th in xFIP, 47th in ERA and 48th in WHIP. Despite the fact he's been woeful, look for him to continue eating inning and inning for the Twins all year.

Joe Nathan, RHRP

Nathan has been quietly building a resume as a closer to rival anyone else in the majors over the last few years. This year he has been superb; a 1.13 ERA, a 27/29 save conversion rate and five year lows in WHIP and xFIP. He made the All Star team this year and deservedly so.

Glen Perkins, LHSP

After losing most of last year to injury, Perkins has been excellent since making the Twins. In 14 games he has 3.84 ERA and a 7-2 record. Unfortunately, his 4.78 xFIP and 1.42 WHIP suggest he's enjoying some luck. While I still expect him to be a stable back of the rotation starter and maybe even something special later on, don't expect too much down the stretch this year.

Dennys Reyes, LHRP

Reyes was for a long time the only left handed pitcher in the Twins bullpen. Used mostly as a high leverage LOOGY his 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are quite respectable. If Gardenhire were to expand his role I think would be a mistake, right handed batters pound Reyes to the tune of a .913 OPS.

Kevin Slowey, RHSP

Another one of the Twins young starters, Slowey has been very consistent this year. He's 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA and a very good looking 1.13 WHIP. Almost all of his numbers have improved since last year and there's no reason to doubt Slowey should be able to continue to be a consistent and able starter. My only concern, which is the same for all four of the Twins' young starters, is durability. It takes time to build up the strength to successfully complete 200 innings in the big league and I don't think any of the Twins' starters, outside of Hernandez, are ready for that kind of work load.