What Would Wall Street Do?: Week 12 NFL Rankings

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What Would Wall Street Do?: Week 12 NFL Rankings

The early picks are definitely preliminary, as Vegas can't seem to decide how to handicap the NE game.

Again.

In the rankings, I've highlighted the DET/GB game—where GB is currently favored by three—to give an example of how the financial rankings can make the difference in a pick.

The Sharpe and Alpha rankings are exactly flip-flopped, and these teams execute very well, but the Beta indicates that GB is far more likely to do it again.

Of course, because it's a three-point game, the Box picks DET (the game is outside the <3 point margin for financial override)...but at least it illustrates some things to consider.

Here are the rankings and picks:

  Sharpe Alpha Beta
Team Rank Rank Rank
ARI 9 13 6
ATL 31 32 30
BAL 27 19 11
BUF 28 30 9
CAR 26 11 19
CHI 21 28 32
CIN 7 5 15
CLE 3 7 25
DAL 2 1 31
DEN 22 25 2
DET 12 6 22
GB 6 12 12
HOU 11 10 1
IND 5 3 26
JAC 16 27 23
KC 29 31 29
MIA 23 15 21
MIN 20 17 7
NE 1 2 8
NO 14 24 24
NYG 8 4 28
NYJ 25 14 13
OAK 24 9 3
PHI 15 22 20
PIT 4 8 17
SD 10 18 27
SEA 13 16 5
SF 32 23 16
STL 30 29 4
TB 19 26 18
TEN 18 21 14
WAS 17 20 10

THE PICKS Over /
* considers lay in pick order Under
1. MIN +7.5 v. NYG Away 42.5
2. BUF +7.5 v. JAC Away x2! 42.5
3. STL +3 v. SEA @Home x2! - Bet Soon 38.5
4. SF +10 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon 35.5
5. DET +3 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon 42.5
6. WAS +3 v. TB Away - Bet Soon 43.0
7. CIN +1 v. TEN @Home 40.0
8. CAR +3 v. NO @Home - Bet Soon 38.5
9. DEN +2 v. CHI Away 40.5
10. BAL +9 v. SD Away - Bet Soon 40.5
11. NYJ +14 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon 44.0
12. MIA +16 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon 40.5
13. OAK +5.5 v. KC Away 38.0
14. CLE -3.5 v. HOU @Home 40.5
15. ATL +12 v. IND @Home - Bet Soon 42.0
16. PHI +22.5 v. NE Away 47.5


I expect the picks to change when the NE spread is finalized and when the spreads move a bit further off their opening lines, so stay tuned for a repeat pick post tomorrow or early on Turkey Day.

The only favorite on the roster this week is CLE—but I'm glad it's the Box's 14th-ranked pick, since HOU's returning combo of Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub makes me nervous.

The combo has the ability to be a Box-buster, even against a scrappy Derek Andersen.

Notice in the WS Ranks how NE's beta actually DROPPED from last week...because they outscored themselves, hence adding a layer of volatility.

I'm not sure how DAL is even in the same league as NE in terms of output; I think the Alpha rankings are the only rankings in the country that have DAL No. 1 and NE No. 2.

That should at least make Dallas fans happy—until of course Dallas plays the Pats again for the ring and loses by 20 or 30 or 40 points.

It's got to make you feel warm and fuzzy to see San Francisco and Miami ranked above anyone in SOMETHING, even if it's for consistently poor play.

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