Catching the Worm: Baseball's Most Surprising Fast-Starting Teams

In 1997, the movie Gattaca taught us that "there is no gene for the human spirit." At the start of every MLB season, we learn that there isn't a statistic for it, either.

As per usual, countless so-called experts—myself included—spent the weeks leading up to Opening Day breaking down the statistical projections and prognosticating about how the divisions would shape up in 2010. And like always, the early-season results have most of us looking like idiots.

If you had told me on April 5th that, five weeks later, the New York Mets would have a better record than the Boston Red Sox, or that the Pittsburgh Pirates would be more successful than the Seattle Mariners, I would have laughed you out of the room. But that's how the cookie has crumbled so far.

Here's a look at five teams who, to varying degrees of understanding, have laughed in the face of their predicted mediocrity over the last five weeks.

Included in each slide are a comparison between the team's preseason projected ranking and its current rank (by winning percentage), a breakdown of a breakout player whose surprising success has mirrored his team's performance, and an analysis of each team's chances of reaching the postseason.

No. 5: Oakland Athletics (17-15)

Preseason Prediction: 19th (4th in division)
Current Rank: 13th (2nd in division)

No serious fans doubted the potential of Oakland's pitching staff, but questions about the team's offense pushed the A's to the bottom of the division in most writers' preseason predictions.

Make no mistake, their lineup isn't particularly intimidating, but their bats have proven big enough to back their potent young arms.

Key Player: Daric Barton, 1B

With lackluster defense and little speed or power, Barton isn't a terribly exciting player, yet he's emerged as the Athletics' biggest offensive weapon because he possesses plate discipline well beyond his 24 years. His 16.7 percent walk rate is fifth in the AL, and his .418 OBP places him comfortably in the league's top 10.

Note: A certain Oakland pitcher who threw a perfect game yesterday would likely be listed here if I had not made the unfortunate decision to bench him in my main fantasy league for last week's scoring period.

Playoff Chances: Medium (Preseason: Low)

The A's have definitely raised their chances of contending, but the AL West is the most volatile division in baseball. The Angels (14-19) and Mariners (12-19) won't keep playing .400 ball all year; it's dangerous to read too much into the standings after only five weeks.

No. 4: Washington Nationals (17-14)

Preseason Prediction: 25th (5th in division)
Current Rank: T10th (T2nd in division)

Wondering how a team with middling offense (.329 wOBA) and mediocre pitching (4.71 FIP) can play .500+ ball? Simple: they win close games.

The Nats are 14-6 in games decided by three or fewer runs, thanks in large part to their pitching staff's .646 OPS allowed in High Leverage situations.

Key Player: Livan Hernandez, SP

There's no way a pitcher with a 2.7 K/9 rate can maintain an ERA of 1.04 for much longer; it's amazing that his 98.9 percent strand rate and .188 BABIP have lasted even this long. But, fluky as it may be, a 1.04 ERA is a 1.04 ERA, and his performance so far has been better than any other pitcher not named Ubaldo Jimenez.

Playoff Chances: Low (Preseason: Very Low)

A playoff berth would probably have to come through the Wild Card, as the Phillies (19-12) don't appear ready to release their stranglehold on the division. Anything's possible, I suppose, but can anyone really keep up these kinds of clutch performances for a whole season?

No. 3: San Francisco Giants (18-12)

Preseason Prediction: 20th (4th in division)
Current Rank: 7th (2nd in division)

Last year, the Giants posted the second-best ERA in baseball (3.55), but their stellar pitching was backed by the worst offense in the game (.305 wOBA). And this winter, it appeared that their lineup had gotten even worse.

But so far in 2010, San Francisco's pitching is even better than it was last year (3.04 ERA), and the Giants' once-anemic lineup now has the sixth-best wOBA (.333) in the league. I'll have what they're having.

Key Player: Nate Schierholtz, OF

After earning 1.2 WAR in just 19 big-league games two years ago, Schierholtz' bat lost its spark in 2009 (.301 wOBA). He's back this year and looks better than ever, flashing increased plate discipline (8.3 percent walk rate) and power (.176 ISO) en route to a scintillating .351/.422/.527 slashline.

Playoff Chances: High (Preseason: Low)

Offensive woes and tough competition kept the Giants out of the playoffs last year, and before the season started it looked like the same thing would happen in 2010. But now that their bats are booming and the Rockies (15-16) and Dodgers (14-17) are struggling out of the gate, there's reason to believe AT&T Park will be open in October.

No. 2: Toronto Blue Jays (19-14)

Preseason Prediction: 27th (5th in division)
Current Rank: 8th (3rd in division)

When I saw the Jays' .576 winning percentage, I had two questions: "Is that a typo? and "How did this happen?""

Don't look now, but the Toronto Blue Jays have surpassed the Boston Red Sox (16-16) in the AL East. Their lineup has the most home runs in the game (50) and their pitching staff leads the league in strikeouts (254).

Key Player: Vernon Wells, OF

After repeatedly hearing his name next to the phrase "worst contract in baseball" this winter, the supposedly washed-up Wells stormed out of the gate with nine homers, 25 RBI, and a .339/.406/.661 slashline. He's even improved his defense (14.2 UZR/150) and currently holds the second-best WAR (2.2) in the game.

Playoff Chances: Low (Preseason: Very Low)

Could they be this year's Rays? It's possible, but even with their hot start, the Blue Jays are only in third place—and that's before Boston's inevitable rebound.

No. 1: San Diego Padres (19-12)

Preseason Prediction: 28th (5th in division)
Current Rank: T4th (1st in division)

Raise your hand if you saw this coming. If you're raising your hand, congratulations: you're a liar.

Scott Hairston and Chase Headley have made up a solid supporting cast for Adrian Gonzalez, and San Diego's 3.78 xFIP is the best in baseball.

Key Player: Jon Garland, SP

A huge bargain for just $4.7 million, his 1.71 ERA is more than a run better than he's ever posted in his career. Who cares if his walk rate (4.5 BB/9) is the worst it's been in 10 years—so far, he's been one of the most effective pitchers in the game.

Playoff Chances: Medium (Preseason: Low)

The Padres have certainly established themselves as contenders, but their success probably isn't as sustainable as the Giants'. And it's way too early to count out the Rockies and Dodgers.