Quick Reversal on the Wheel of Fortune

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Quick Reversal on the Wheel of Fortune
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The draft is over and free agency has slowed to a major crawl. Most sites are focusing on the “losers” of the draft from a fantasy and dynasty perspective. However, some players dodged a serious bullet when their teams decided NOT to address their position so far in the offseason.  Each of them is going to have some worth in yearly leagues, but what about their dynasty value?  Are they a sell candidate or a buy candidate?  We take a look at several players and give advice on what to do.

Brian Brohm QB BUF
Brian Brohm and Trent Edwards will likely battle in training camp for the starting QB job in Buffalo.  Unfortunately, the Bills didn’t address MUCH this offseason. Their offensive line is still a weakness, at best.  However, Brohm is worth a waiver pickup, trade for a WR4/5 type, or late free agency/rookie draft pick. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that he was in the discussion to be a 1st round NFL Draft pick.  At least he may have a chance to play a little and give the Bills a reason not to look at Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett next year.

James Hardy / Marcus Easley / Steve Johnson WR Bills
Right now, it’s anyone’s guess, but keep an eye on this situation. Terrell Owens isn’t coming back and the battle between James Hardy, Steve Johnson, and Marcus Easley is about to rage on. While the battle for the spot opposite Lee Evans looks less than prosperous, you always like to stash a young guy with potential…especially one with a starting gig.

Laurence Maroney RB NE
The Patriots seemed primed to find a replacement for their major crop of committee backs, yet failed to address it in the offseason. Maroney has been nothing short of an epic disappointment the last few years and seemed primed to be replaced as the lead back of the crew.  If you could find a coach who believes Maroney has yet another chance now to re-emerge as a viable option, I’d jump on it.  I’ve seen enough to believe that’s simply not going to happen.

LeSean McCoy RB PHI
The Eagles were heavily rumored to be looking for a solid power back to pair with McCoy.  I find it hard to believe that Mike Bell or Charles Scott are going to eat into too many of McCoy’s chances. I believe he’s a great buy right now as he’ll have a chance this season to prove he can handle a big load.

Brandon Jacobs RB NYG
The Giants were rumored to be eyeing CJ Spiller, but he didn’t come close to making it to them.  Jacobs’ best days are behind him, regardless of them not adding another back to the stable. Like Maroney, I’d be looking to find a new home for Jacobs while he still holds some short-term value.

Matt Leinart QB ARI
So far, Leinart has come out of the offseason unscathed.  Though it wouldn’t surprise me to see Marc Bulger come to town, the job seems to be Leinart’s to lose.  At this point, I’d hold tight based on his low market value.  There’s really no way that Skelton is anywhere close to competing, and Derek Anderson shouldn’t beat him out, either.

Alex Smith QB SF
The 49ers had not one, but two chances to take Jimmy Clausen in the first round of the draft.  Their reluctance shows some faith in Alex Smith, even though he’ll be on a short leash yet again.  I’d look to buy on Smith right now, as he has just about everything in place to be successful.

Charlie Whitehurst QB SEA
Much like the 49ers, the Seahawks had some chances to take Jimmy Clausen as well.  They, too, passed on him and others in the draft.  However, rumor has it that they would have taken Clausen in the draft had Earl Thomas not dropped in their laps.  I’m not sure I believe that, but I’m also not sending any #1 rookie picks to anyone for Whitehurst, either.  Proceed with caution on this one.

Ronnie Brown RB MIA
This next year is huge for Brown.  If he shows he can recover from his injuries and be a big play back, he’ll get a nice new contract in Miami or elsewhere.  If he can’t, he’ll be just another aging back looking for work.  I’d look to move Brown if I could.

Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
Rumors were flying on draft day that the Steelers were looking to move out Big Ben and find his heir apparent.  Ben was lucky enough to avoid being moved out, but the patience with him is over.  As we wrote before, it might be too late to get a lot of value for him, but I’d be putting him up for sale IMMEDIATELY after a couple of good games this year. History just isn’t on his side.

Knowshon Moreno RB DEN
A lot of mock drafts had the Broncos looking at Gerhart, Dwyer or other big backs to help Moreno.  While he did wear down last year, Moreno is being undervalued in a lot of leagues right now.  I’d take advantage if I could.

Matt Cassel QB KC
If you follow this site regularly, you know we labeled Cassel as the biggest “bust” candidate last season.  While the book isn’t closed, Cassel hasn’t been overly impressive in his stint in KC. While the QB spot wasn’t addressed (much to the dismay of Charlie Weis, I’m sure), Cassel’s dynasty outlook doesn’t look great. If you can convince another owner that the Chiefs have proven their long-term commitment to Cassel by not drafting a QB, I’d be moving him, too.

The wheel of fortune as been kind to many in the NFL the past few months. Evaluate each of them carefully.  If you believe this is the last window you have to move these players (or a good window to buy one), strike now.  You don’t want to be left with a roster full of players who you can’t get anything in return for.  In a dynasty league, you simply can’t afford to spin the wheel and go bankrupt.

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