Behind The USC Trojan's Scoring Decline - Part I

Of course direct scoring by the defense and special teams is one thing but contribution of good field position and positive momentum is another to be considered.

In the Rose Bowl game ABC put up the following picture in the game in the fourth quarter reflecting points production after turnovers in the 2008 Rose Bowl game.

Sudden "momentum shifts" after turnovers are forced by the defense clearly benefit the offense and subsequently affect how teams score for a couple of reasons. Of course there is the psychological advantage to the offense in these cases.

In addition, however, is the simple gain in terms of relative field position. The average spot over the past few years after the USC defense forces a turnover is roughly the opponent's 40-yard line.

After a turnover the offense starts with a "short field" advantage and only has to move about 10 yards to get into field goal range and 40 yards to score a touchdown.

USC is about 70% likely to score from such a spot the last time I checked. Combining the points in the first rows from above (direct scores by defense and special teams) along with points scored after a turnover the past five years you get the following result for categories one and two.



As you can see that is a pretty interesting insight. A very significant amount of USC scoring in any given season is a product of either direct scores by the defense or special teams, beneficial short field position, or the momentum created after turnovers by the defense.

This result becomes important when you also consider the trend the past several seasons for USC football in terms of net turnover margin (see below).



For this turnover trend data I'll go back to 2002 since the information is easily obtainable.

The blue columns indicate the turnovers forced on defense by either fumbles or interceptions. The middle bar is the number of turnovers committed by USC on offense. The third and lightest colored bar is the differential for the year (i.e. turn over margin).

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