Behind The USC Trojan's Scoring Decline - Part I

(Note: Keep in mind that the 2006 season in college football was effectively 10% shorter due to changes in the game clock rules that year. I will not adjust for that effect but any cross year comparison should probably bump those figures up by roughly that amount.)

A big problem however with looking at the scoring data at this aggregate level is that the total combines so many different factors it is hard to sort out with respect potential sources of the variation.  For example in football:

• The defense scores points at times on safeties, interceptions or fumbles recovered and returned for scores
• Special team units can score points on punt and kick off returns for touchdowns or blocked kicks
  
• Teams typically score on offense at a higher percentage after turnovers by the defense
• Teams can score on short field (SF) scores (less that half the field) after blocked kicks, or turnovers, or excellent kick returns
• Teams can score starting from normal medium field (MF) position starting around the 30 yard line
• Teams can score on long field (LF) drives of 85 to 90 yards or more

Each of these categories is indicative of a different relative strength or weakness in a given year. The first four categories for example are reflective of how defense and special teams play directly and indirectly contribute to scoring by the offense.

The latter two cases are more reflective of the true offensive capability in my opinion since those involve sustaining drives the length of the field. It is worth looking at each of these closer in detail for greater insight into how a team actually scores. For simplicity I chose to break things into the five categories listed below.

Category 1 = Defense or Special Teams Scoring.

Category 2 = Scores on offense after a turnover (TO) caused by the defense.

Category 3 = Other scores (Non turnover related) or short field (SF) drives starting on the opponents 1 to 50 yard line.

Category 4 = Medium field (MF) drives for TD by the offense without the benefit of turnovers and starting between the USC 21 and 49 yard line.

Category 5 = Long field (LF) drives for TD by the offense without the benefit of a turnover and starting between the USC 1 to 20 yard line.

Here is the five year summary in terms of a) scoring drives and then b) points:

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