Behind The USC Trojan's Scoring Decline - Part I

The 2006 figure might be bumped up a small amount as I mentioned above due to the scoring clock rules for that season.


If you look at the breakdown in terms of points scored by USC as organized above the following conclusion pops out that I mentioned above.

The biggest problem the USC offense has had the past two years in terms of scoring has mainly been a decline in short field scoring opportunities which in reality are created as much or more by defense, special teams, and other events.

That message might seems somewhat perplexing at first but here are some additional points to keep in mind that tend to back it up overall.

For starters third down and fourth down conversion percentages have been improving overall the past seven years for USC on offense. The 2005 squad was of course the highest but the next two best seasons have been 2006 and 2007 by a slight margin. Fourth down conversion exhibits a somewhat similar trend.






Next here is a look at the average drive length by USC the past few seasons. This figure is calculated by taking all the yards for a given season and dividing it by the total number of drives for the year.

I did not sort the data and pick out the one play kneel downs etc. before halftime or the end of the game. So this amount probably understates the "real" number by a slight margin and may affect a couple years more than others but the effect should be small (i.e. a yard or two at most).



Average yards per play over the seven year provides another insight that I think is also very revealing in terms of the total picture. USC was indeed better on offense in the years of 2003 to 2004 by about a half yard per play and of course by a larger amount in 2005 than the past two seasons.

Those years correspond directly with the development of Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, LenDale White, the wide receiving corps and one of the best offensive lines in recent USC history. The years of 2002, 2006, and 2007 in comparison have indeed been more "ordinary" compared to those years.

In conclusion let's return to the total points situation for the USC Trojans. If fans want to see an increase in points scored per game there are of course multiple ways for the Trojans to accomplish this goal.

• For one the defense and special teams could come though again and score more some points directly. However I am not optimistic about this possibility given the past two years. 2003 in reality was probably quite unique in that regard for USC.
  
• Alternatively the defense also can contribute in a major way by producing the same level of turnovers accomplished in years 2001 to 2005. That would dramatically help field position and increase the probability of any given scoring drive for USC on offense (e.g. more short field opportunities).
  
• The more conventional angle of course is for the offense to become more explosive in terms of big play potential and increase the number of long field drives that result in scoring.
  

With skilled players such as Joe McKnight and Stafon Johnson at RB and many other talented receivers returning the third option indeed may be possible in 2008 for the Trojans.

However, the unknown variables at this point in time for USC on offense are of course 1) the QB position with new starter Mark Sanchez at the helm, two) the depth and talent of the 80% new offensive line, and of course three) the inevitable injuries and position shifts that will occur, etc.

With no up tick in turnovers and short field opportunities however I suspect USC will remain "stuck" around the level of 32 points per game on offense. That level is nothing to sneeze at but it feels slightly low compared to the past several seasons (a sign of how spoiled USC fans have already become?).

Keep in mind however that improving the offense is not the only thing required to win a national championship for USC or any other team for that matter.

The Florida Gators for example won the national title with a 13 Wins and one Loss mark in 2006 compiling 396 yards per game (19th in the country) and 29.7 points per game (23rd overall in scoring). That team finished strong however and had a suffocating defense at the end of the year.

In 2007 the Florida Gators improved both offensive marks to 457 yards per game to rank 14th in the country and averaged 42.4 points per game to rank third in scoring.

Despite these improvements however the Gators only finished the year with nine Wins and four Losses. Winning in football still consists of offense, defense, special teams, coaching, player talent, and other intangibles that can't always be quantified.

I'll check this trend again for USC to see how things differ in another 12 months at the end of 2008.

Other overall trends for USC and the Pac-10 are available here for those interested www.trojanfootballanalysis.com

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