I like Sidney's Candy to win Saturday even though the field is so open. First of all I do not feel it is a very talented field at all, So if you have some horse there is a chance for you. For sure the horse I picked is no sure thing. In fact I give him a one in four chance of winning. However I feel his odds will be closer to 7 or 8 to one. So there is going to be value to choosing him.
Even though many do not like the outside post I love it for this horse. He has the speed to be leading but I think he will lay 3rd or 4 Th. He can rate some if you watch all of his races. His strength is his ability to run a great far turn and even though in most derby's what you do on the far turn does not mean much(because young horses quit badly in the derby) I do not feel this horse will. I think the muddy track will help him because he has never ran on hard dirt before. So it might feel like the synthetic tracks he has been running on.
What I really like is I do not see a lot of mud getting on him or his jockey because of his outside post and speed. Also there are no really great horses or closers.
That is my take.
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