I like Sidney's Candy to win Saturday even though the field is so open. First of all I do not feel it is a very talented field at all, So if you have some horse there is a chance for you. For sure the horse I picked is no sure thing. In fact I give him a one in four chance of winning. However I feel his odds will be closer to 7 or 8 to one. So there is going to be value to choosing him.
Even though many do not like the outside post I love it for this horse. He has the speed to be leading but I think he will lay 3rd or 4 Th. He can rate some if you watch all of his races. His strength is his ability to run a great far turn and even though in most derby's what you do on the far turn does not mean much(because young horses quit badly in the derby) I do not feel this horse will. I think the muddy track will help him because he has never ran on hard dirt before. So it might feel like the synthetic tracks he has been running on.
What I really like is I do not see a lot of mud getting on him or his jockey because of his outside post and speed. Also there are no really great horses or closers.
That is my take.
Thanks for reading