Five Reasons the Phoenix Suns Will Finally Beat the San Antonio Spurs

Here we go again.

If you thought there was bad blood between Dallas and San Antonio, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

The Suns have been the victim of both bad defense and worse circumstance during their previous postseason meetings this decade with the Spurs. The result was four playoff exits, three of which came during the Nash era.

Split noses, kneed groins, suspensions that followed the letter and not the spirit of the law, and overall better play from the Spurs, have left Phoenix with a bitter taste in their mouths going home in playoffs past. But this committee of one is willing to go out on a limb.

This time will be different.

There are enough factors, some large and others small, that can give more hope than despair to the average Suns fan when the awful black-and-silver visage of the Spurs comes to mind. Phoenix should win.

Here's why.

Stoudemire vs. Duncan

Don't misunderstand. Tim Duncan is still a force to be reckoned with. It's just that he's no longer the force the Suns had to reckon with in the past.

He's still an anchor on the defensive end with 20-10 potential. But no longer will he be able to impose dominance at the expense of the Suns' interior, especially if Robin Lopez returns from a sore back.

Duncan was able to frustrate Amar'e Stoudemire into mistakes in the past, but a different Amar'e is manning the paint now—one who doesn't leave his feet on defense or barrel unheeding on offense.

Stoudemire is smarter. Not as smart as Duncan, but smart enough to avoid falling for Duncan's veteran moves as often as before. Plus he simply outclasses Duncan athletically.

In fact, you can probably say that about the Suns as a whole.

Home Court—Phoenix

Before Robert Horry's series-altering hip check, the Suns were on their way to tying the series at two games apiece with two of the remaining three games in Phoenix.

Without those suspensions, the Suns would have won. You can't convince me otherwise.

Home court will be equally huge this time, as teams like Phoenix, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, and the Lakers have already shown. For Phoenix, that's especially true for guys like Channing Frye, who simply plays better at home than he does on the road.

Expect the crowd to be particularly merciless given the history between the two teams.

In fact, Arizona may be about as welcoming to the Spurs as they are to illegal immigrants right now. Of course, if the Spurs take a lead at any point in Phoenix, fans may start contemplating their suicidal options.

Also expect the Suns to come out particularly hot in Game One to make a statement. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire will be out to prove the jinx is over, and the Spurs won't have the length Portland did to disrupt them.

Just don't expect David Stern to show up.

Reserve Corp.

This has already been touched on by numerous analysts and writers, but it bears mentioning when breaking down this series.

In the past, San Antonio usually broke a game open or at least seized an advantage whenever Nash sat out his ritual three to five minutes per half. Then he would be forced to return and continue slogging away at the Spurs' defense on tired legs.

This time around, Phoenix features an aggressively productive bench unit that allows Nash six to nine minutes minimum rest per half. Not only that, but the Suns' reserves play better defense than the starters, which the Spurs will be completely unfamiliar with.

Goran Dragic specifically will bear watching. In the season's first game between the two teams, Tony Parker pressured Dragic into making mistakes.

Their last game of the season, Dragic toasted both Parker and the rest of the Spurs with drives on offense while picking them apart defensively.

Not only will the bench ensure no drop off when the starters sit, but Nash and Co. will be well-rested when they do return. Speaking of Nash wearing down...

Spurs Sans Bowen

It will only take Nash a couple minutes of playing time to realize he's never had this much breathing room against the Spurs.

Bruce Bowen was a huge reason the Spurs were able to somewhat contain the Phoenix offense and at least frustrate it into rash decisions. Without Bowen, Tony Parker will draw the more traditional matchup of point guard against point guard.

Parker is quick, but he's no Bowen. Nash will be able to see his passing lanes better around the shorter Frenchman. The one caveat is that Nash will have to guard Parker on defense, and will actually miss being able to guard Bowen (Richard Jefferson makes that kind of switch impossible for Phoenix).

While the Spurs have always been solid defensively, Bowen was the guy who gave San Antonio the teeth and nails that really got under opponents' skin. without that, the Suns will feel extremely liberated compared to times past.

Oh, and Jefferson isn't nearly as adept at hitting timely threes from the corner.

Peace of Mind Over Past Times

The biggest reason the Suns will win this year is because they're so much different than years past, when they tried to use the same formula against the same opponent.

This year, defense, maturity, and chemistry are more apparent than at any other point during the Nash/Stoudemire era. Grant Hill is a less high-maintenance version of Shawn Marion. Jason Richardson is the best third wheel the Suns have had since Joe Johnson, who was out half the '05 series against the Spurs before getting traded.

The coaching staff and starters believe in their bench and in each other.

Again, the Suns' maturity as a team can't be underestimated. In Game Six against Portland, Phoenix held a 16-point lead before Portland tied the game. Instead of folding and letting the Blazers complete the comeback, Phoenix buckled down with two things you don't normally associate with it—defense and half-court execution.

If you weren't ready for that, imagine how the Spurs will feel. Suns in six.