2010 NBA Playoffs: An In-Depth Cleveland Cavs/Boston Celtics Breakdown

In a playoff preview a few weeks ago, it was noted that if the Cavs were to win their first ever NBA title and exorcise a 46-year championship drought on the city of the Cleveland, they'd have a chance to vanquish the past demons that have haunted the organization and its intensely loyal fans.

The first step is done. The Cavs beat the Bulls 4-1 in their best-of-seven series, the first time that Cleveland has ever beaten Chicago in the playoffs. The Bulls knocked the Cavs out five times in seven years in the late '80s/early '90s.

Now comes the second obstacle: the Boston Celtics.

Personally, as a subjective and biased fan, I hate the Celtics. It's more jealousy than anything else—their 17 championships (the most of any Basketball franchise) represent everything I've ever wanted. They might as well be the Yankees of basketball.

But there's no love lost between the players either.

Maybe it all started back in 2004, when Paul Pierce spit at the Cavaliers bench during a preseason game in Columbus, Ohio. Granted, only two players remain from each side (Pierce and Kendrick Perkins for Boston, LeBron and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for Cleveland). But the seeds of contempt...and rivalry...were planted.

They met in the 2008 playoffs, a hard-fought, competitive series that came down to the final minute of Game Seven before Boston eked out a 97-92 victory to advance. Pierce and James put on a show, with the former going for 41 points, five assists, and four rebounds, and the latter putting up 45 points, six assists, and five rebounds.

The core of Boston remains the same. Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen are all two years older (and have almost 200 more games under their belt), while Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and Glen Davis have all developed immensely since.

The Cavs, on the other hand, have a brand new nucleus to trot out. In fact, LeBron is the only starter remaining. The Cavs have added All-Stars Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison, future Hall-of-Famer Shaquille O'Neal, and versatile defenders Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon.

Nonetheless, the chippiness between the two squads remains in tact. There was Ray Allen's cheap shot in the, um...masculine region, of Anderson Varejao last year.

There was Kevin Garnett talking a little smack to LeBron when James was at the foul line at the end of the game during their April 4 meeting.

And then there was James's quote after the game: "This game has lost a bit over the years. All the talking and teams not liking one another...that is what the game has lost."

Or, as Cleveland Plain-Dealer beat writer Brian Windhorst so appropriately "translated" it as: "I look forward to seeing these gentleman again."

If Boston gets their way, this will be (pardon the cliche) a knockdown, drag 'em out series.

The Cavs, on the other hand, should look to up the tempo, spread the floor, and run whenever possible against the aging (and slower) Celtics.

So which style will play out?

Which team will prevail?

Let's break this thing down (player-by-player, strategy vs. strategy, intangible vs. intangible, the whole works) to see who will be a representative in the Eastern Conference Finals...

PG: Mo Williams vs. Rajon Rondo

Back in 2008, you never would have convinced me that Rajon Rondo would be a top-five point guard in the NBA. Not after Game Three in Cleveland, when the little goblin put up just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting, with one rebound and one assist. It seemed inevitable that NBA defenses would exploit Rondo's weaknesses as he got older.

Instead, it was the other way around. Now Rondo breaks down defenses as well as any other point guard in the league. And I'd say that, along with Deron Williams and Chris Paul, he is as instrumental to his team's success as any other point guard in the league.

The miraculous part? He's done it by barely improving his outside game at all. He's still a weak jump shooter and not strong from the free throw line either.

Still, he's deadly with the ball in his hands. He finds ways to get to the rim and can finish with either hand. He's one of the best finishers under the hoop in the league; the way he uses the angles off the backboard is remarkably impressive.

Against Miami, he averaged 14.8 points, 10.2 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game.

Three times this year, he put up double-digit assists against Cleveland. He's a difficult matchup because, with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce on the floor, the Cavs have no choice but to put Mo Williams on him, and Mo isn't the strongest defender in the world.

Speaking of Mo...

Mo is a streak shooter who has had success against the Celtics this year. In the final three games against Boston, he averaged 17 points and four three-pointers per game on 56.3 percent shooting.

He didn't have a great series against the Bulls, but only had one poor game (the series finale).

The key for Williams is to find a way to contribute when his shot isn't falling, whether it's by attacking off the dribble, distributing the ball on offense, or even stepping up on defense.

This is an interesting battle because both players can expose each others' weakness on the defense end.

Rondo can attack Williams off the dribble and force help, creating scoring opportunities for others, and Rondo is great at finding open men.

Williams, on the other hand, can set up behind the three-point line and make Rondo pay for roaming around on defense, trying to help or going for a steal.

Just like last series, a big key for Cleveland is trying to get Mo to match Rondo's production. If he does, it bodes extremely well for the Cavs.

Advantage: Celtics

SG: Anthony Parker vs. Ray Allen

Allen poses a difficult cover for the Cavs. Often times, the Cavs will attempt to slow down the other team's point guard by putting either Anthony Parker or LeBron James on them, and moving Mo Williams to defend the shooting guard.

In this series, that can't be done. Allen is too good off screens and moves so well without the ball that it's difficult for an undersized point guard to keep up.

When Boston and Cleveland met in 2008, Allen had a dismal series. In part, that was a huge reason that the undermanned Cavs were able to keep up with Boston and push them to the brink. During that time, I thought that Allen was done; he was aging and, if he couldn't make an outside shot, I didn't see his value.

But Allen has bounced back big-time since then, and has had strong playoff runs the last two years.

He's also had success against the Cavs this year, particularly because he runs the secondary-break so well. The Cavs struggle in transition, and Allen loves to find open spots behind the three-point line while the defense scrambles.

He started out the game on Feb. 25 4-for-4 from three, and he added six more on April 4.

Similar to Allen, Anthony Parker is a strong outside shooter, but isn't much of a threat off the dribble. Parker loves to spot up in the corners and wait for cross-court passes from LeBron or Mo.

However, he's not skilled in creating his own shot, or creating shots for others. He's definitely the weakest offensive link in the Cavs' starting lineup.

He is a premier defender, using his size and strength to body up the opposition. But in this series, he will have to chase Allen all over the floor, running off a series of baseline screens.

This isn't his specialty. He's a much stronger one-on-one defender than he is at using his quickness (or lack of) to shut down scorers.

Parker's known as a defensive stopper, and he will have his hands full trying to slow down Ray Allen and throw him off his game.

Advantage: Celtics

SF: LeBron James vs. Paul Pierce

You might remember the epic Game Seven performance these two put on in 2008.

It's difficult to ignore that Pierce is now 32, has nearly 200 more games on his tachometer, and (like it or not) has only one or two more years as one the NBA's premier players. James, on the other hand, is only 25, has improved his overall game in the last two years, and only has more experience on his resume.

Still, Pierce is going to break his A-game against James and the Cavs. He always saves his best game for the biggest stage, and he undoubtedly will do the same here.

James has made no secret that he wanted the Celtics in the postseason. There's no doubt he remembers the sinking feeling in his stomach when the Cavs lost that heartbreaker in '08. He'll want payback.

Advantage: Cavaliers

PF: Antawn Jamison vs. Kevin Garnett

This might be the most interesting player matchup in the series. Two aging veterans whose best days are probably behind them that have one final shot (more or less) at a title run.

Kevin Garnett is a shell of the player he was in 2008. That KG was still athletic, a lock-down defender, a beast on the boards, and a true emotional leader.

This KG is slow, can't get up and down the court, can't beat people off the dribble, only has one go-to offensive move (a turn-around fadeaway), and doesn't seem like he's the leader of this team anymore (Celtics fans, please weigh in on this issue, but it seems to me that Pierce is the alpha dog...of course, I don't see them everyday, so it's tough to judge).

Antawn Jamison just came off his two best games of the first round. He finally realized that Taj Gibson and Luol Deng couldn't come close to covering him, and the Cavs finally realized that maybe they should run a play or two through him.

Antawn's a crafty veteran. He has unusual moves under the rim, but they're effective nonetheless. He loves to go under a defender's outstretched arms in the post, using flip and scoop shots to get points. He is a decent outside shooter, though I prefer to see him set up in the 15-18 foot range instead of trying to stretch the defense to the three-point line.

He's becoming more and more adept at moving without the ball, and finding the open areas in the paint that are unoccupied when LeBron has the ball.

Jamison's not the best defender in the world, but against KG, he shouldn't be exposed too much. At this point (like stated earlier), Garnett's only real go-to move is his fadeaway jumper. At 6'11", it's nearly impossible to defend, so all Antawn really has to do is get into the body of KG and make the shot as difficult as possible.

On the other end, Antawn needs to be active and efficient. The Celtics don't have anyone who is athletic enough to keep up with him on the perimeter without giving away a substantial size advantage underneath.

I think it's important for the Cavs to go through Antawn as much as possible. He only played in two games for Cleveland against Boston, but averaged 15.5 points and 11 rebounds.

It's his type of movement and athleticism that give the Celtics trouble, and the Cavs have to exploit it early and often.

Advantage: Cavaliers

C: Shaquille O'Neal vs. Kendrick Perkins

Finally, after going through four positions where the players are virtually opposites of one another, we get two players of the same mold.

Both O'Neal and Perkins are big, physical presences in the paint.

They're not really effective from outside of four feet on offense, nor are they strong from the foul line.

They clean up the boards nicely and use their size to gain leverage on both ends.

The big difference? Shaq is 38 and Perkins is 25.

Perkins wasn't stellar against Miami, but he didn't need to be. With Jermaine O'Neal decomposing in front of a national audience, the Heat's best chance was to go with a Haslem-Beasley combination, which was a bad matchup for Perk. It was easier for the Celts to go with Glen Davis or Rasheed Wallace.

Shaq put up strong performances in Games One and Five, but struggled in the middle. In fact, he didn't play a fourth quarter during the second, third, and fourth games.

But when he was active, Shaq was a load to handle for Chicago. He was great at being patient in the post, and even had some good baseline spin moves for a few easy buckets. He did commit a few turnovers, but he was trying to make the extra pass to set up his teammates—those are mistakes you can live with.

This is a series where Boston, in my opinion, would like to see O'Neal on the court a majority of the time. It means the game will be slowed down and played in the half court, which definitely favors the Celtics.

The Cavs don't really need Shaq in this particular series to play well. Perkins hasn't been too much of a problem in the regular season, averaging just 8.3 points and 6.3 rebounds.

For Cleveland's sake, let's hope neither of these two is on the floor for more than 20-25 minutes a game.

Advantage: Push

Bench: West/Moon/Varejao vs. Allen/Davis/Wallace

No doubt, the Cavs have better talent and better depth off the bench than Boston.

The Celtics trot out Tony Allen, a good energy player and strong defender, but someone who will only get points off wide-open lay-ups in transition.

They also have Glen Davis, another active big body underneath who works extremely hard but is undersized.

Finally, they'll go with Rasheed Wallace, who, well...was once a great player.

The Cavs, meanwhile, have a plethora of options to choose from on the pine.

Anderson Varejao, usually the first guy off the bench (and third place finisher for Sixth Man of the Year), provides energy and activity that drives Boston crazy. In the Mar. 14 game, Varejao had 17 points (on 6-of-8 shooting), 10 rebounds, and was lauded by Boston coach Doc Rivers for his constant effort on the floor.

Varejao will be an important key in Cleveland's success. Against Chicago, he didn't seem to have his usual energy. Maybe it was the fact that he went against Joakim Noah, another high-activity player. But when his constant movement drives the Celtics crazy—they don't have anyone to keep up.

Delonte West is a strong defender that will probably see time against Rajon Rondo. In three games against the Celtics, his plus/minus was +27, +22, and +8. It's a flawed stat, but the bottom line is that he provides a spark that Boston's bench can't match.

There are two more players to keep your eye on in terms of production per minute: Nate Robinson and J.J. Hickson.

Robinson played in just three games in the first round, averaging an astounding four minutes per game. It seemed clear that he wasn't in Doc Rivers's playoff plans.

At the same time, he's given the Cavs fits this year. Cleveland has trouble defending quick, score-first point guards, and Robinson fits that bill to a tee. We'll see if Nate gets off the bench to try and give Boston a spark.

Forgive me for beating a dead horse at this point, but Boston is an older team. They'll have trouble consistently keeping up with lengthy, athletic, younger players.

Hickson can give the Celtics fits if he finds minutes. But it might be his lack of discipline on the defensive end that keeps him sitting a majority of the time.

Advantage: Cavaliers

Boston Will Win If...

Rajon Rondo Goes Off

Rondo is going to get in the lane—there's no stopping him, he's too good. I think it's important for the Cavs to actually try to get him to score.

He's much better when he gets a few easy buckets, the defense starts to key in on him, and he can set up guys like Allen and Pierce for jumpers or Garnett and Perkins for dunks. He then will grab a few boards, push the pace in transition, and then he's dangerous.

But if he's their primary scorer, the other guys don't get going. Which means, maybe in the fourth quarter, those jump shots aren't falling as frequently.

If Rondo gets going, however, the Celts are tough to beat, especially in the playoffs.

They Get In Cleveland's Head

The Celtics are talkers. They're going to intimidate the opposition and get in their heads...you know, make the other side think about driving into the paint next time, or about that free throw you just missed.

I thought the Cavs did a poor job responding to the Bulls when Chicago started yapping, at James in particular. LeBron seemed keen on firing potshots back instead of just playing.

Against Boston, it's only going to get worse. The Cavs have to maintain composure, or it'll play right into the Celtics' hands.

Paul Pierce Matches LeBron's Production

By matching, I don't mean Pierce has to score 30 points, grab 10 rebounds, and dish out eight assists.

Pierce has to score, but he can't be a volume scorer. And in turn, he has to turn James into one.

Let's say these are Pierce's averages: 28 points, 56 percent shooting, five rebounds, four assists, two-and-a-half three-pointers, 50 percent three-point shooting.

And let's say these are 'Bron's averages: 31 points, 45 percent shooting, seven rebounds, seven assists, one three-pointer, 33 percent three-point shooting.

That's what I mean by "matching production." With those numbers, Boston will have a great chance to advance.

The Bench Steps Up

Tony Allen scores six or eight points, forces a few turnovers, and frustrates LeBron on a few possessions on defense.

Rasheed Wallace finally shows up, hits a couple threes, and even posts up a few times.

Nate Robinson gets about 10-12 minutes, changes the pace of the game, and gets Boston some easy points while Rondo rests.

The Celts have enough talent in their starting five to keep up with Cleveland. If their bench plays even, or even plays a little bit better, that's a big win.

Cleveland Will Win If...

Mo Williams Goes Off

We started with Rondo on the last slide, so let's start with Williams here.

Like Jamison against Chicago, I love the potential for a Mo Williams break-out party in this series. Rondo is a strong defender, but he often times wanders and roams, looking for steals or setting himself to grab rebounds and push the ball up-court.

Mo is a spot-up shooter, and if Rondo leaves him, he'll get open looks. The Celtics are going to crowd the paint and make it difficult for the Cavs to get easy shots underneath. That should open up the perimeter for the shooters.

Cleveland averaged 7.5 three-pointers per game against Boston this year; Mo averaged three and shot 54.5 percent from deep.

And, much like last series when the Cavs wanted to get Mo to match Derrick Rose's production, he should strive to do the same in this series.

They Play at a Fast Tempo

Get out on the break whenever possible.

Spread the floor with guys like Jamario Moon, Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Antawn Jamison.

Get into the offensive sets as quick as possible; don't wait until there are 16 seconds left on the shot clock to get the ball into the post. Throw it in at 20 seconds.

The bottom line is that the Cavs can't get locked in a half-court game with Boston. They have the personnel to wear the Celtics down.

The Bigs are Active

Anderson Varejao and Antawn Jamison in particular. These two have significant advantages against Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins, and Rasheed Wallace.

They need to be active, grab offensive rebounds, keep loose balls alive, hit open mid-range shots, and keep moving the entire time. So simply, they need to play like they drank 10 Red Bulls before the game.

And if there's any production from J.J. Hickson, consider it an added benefit.

They Keep Boston Out of the Paint

In the two games at the Garden, the Celts averaged 47 points in the paint.

In the two games at the Q, they averaged 30.

This goes hand-in-hand with keeping Rondo out of the lane. Boston doesn't have a lot of one-on-one scorers inside, so they'll get their points of penetration from Rondo and Pierce.

The Cavs should look to pack in the middle (and keep someone on Ray Allen, of course) to prevent Boston from getting easy buckets. If Boston has to work for 80 to 90 percent of their points, they're in trouble.

Prediction

A few weeks ago, I laughed at how the Cavs, who played well for about seven minutes, erased a 20-point deficit to take the lead against Boston. It was the regular season, so I wasn't flabbergasted by the lack of intensity. If anything, I was pleased that Boston would have to play well for nearly 48 minutes to beat the Cavs...without Shaq.

And when the Celtics were down 14 halfway through the third quarter of Game One against Miami, I snickered, thinking to myself, "these guys don't even want any part of Cleveland in the second round."

But something happened from the KG suspension. It wasn't the fact that they beat up the Heat and basically won the series in that game.

It was a renewed vigor, a newfound sense of urgency that had been lacking in Boston all year. They finally got a little bit of that Celtic swagger back.

I'm not impressed that they beat Miami; the Heat aren't a good team. But I was impressed by their attitude and demeanor. They looked like they gave a s**t for the first time all year.

And you can't underestimate a team that's played together for years. They know their tendencies, know their roles, and, since they won a championship, they know what it takes to get to the next level.

But this is seemingly a role reversal of 2008. The Cavs look like the championship-poised team, while the Celtics are the team that can give them everything they can handle...and more. In the long run, if the Cavs win this series, they can thank Boston—it'll only make them mentally tougher as the playoffs wear on.

The Cavs need a hard-fought series win like this. This current group of players hasn't won one. In fact, I'd argue that in the last five years, the only series the Cavs won against an evenly-matched opponent was in the '07 ECF against Detroit. They need a series like this...desperately.

And they'll get it. LeBron has grown up and has too much around him to let the Cavs falter this earlier.

The Celts just don't do enough to beat them...but they'll put up a much better fight than I thought they would three weeks ago.

Prediction: Cavs in Six