2010 Kentucky Derby Field: Predictions and Odds For This Year's Race
The post positions for Saturday's running of the 136th edition of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
It's been a week that has seen the clear favorite Eskendereya scratched from the field with an injury.
This is the time of year where we start to give a damn about horse racing again despite the sport's depressed state.
While other Triple Crown tracks like Pimlico and Belmont are struggling, Churchill Downs will be alive as ever with the pageantry of the wild hats and the mint julep crowd.
You have the odds and the post positions. Now you just need some good advice. You came to the right spot.
Long shots are the in thing but post position matters. Is current favorite Luckin at Lucky in the best spot to win?
Let's take a look at my 10 picks to be in the money.
10. Awesome Act (10-1)
With the odds, I can't leave this horse out. He tanked at the Wood Memorial.
Can he redeem himself here?
The No. 16 has produced two winners in the last 11 years. I just don't see a third in the cards.
9. Dublin (12-1)
D. Wayne Lukas gets attached to a horse and they're automatically in the conversation.
But this horse couldn't get past Line of David, a 30-to-1 horse here.
Plus, history is the kicker. There has never been a horse win out of the No. 17 or 19 spot in 135 years.
I'm just saying.
8. Discreetly Mine (30-1)
I'm simply speaking to history here.
I'm not sure if this horse can keep up with the fast pace that good weather is going to bring Saturday.
The No. 15 spot is unique at Churchill Downs. The opening gate is only built for 14 spots, so the rest are in an auxilary gate.
There's a big gap between the No. 14 and 15 spot. So the 15th horse has the more room inside to start than any other horse.
That's why if you're looking for a long shot, this may be your smart money.
Historically, the No. 8 position has produced the second most winners since 1900 (10, including Mine That Bird last year).
Dean's Kitten is there this year and at 50-1. I just think he's been overrun leading up to Kentucky.
One more tidbit on a long shot. The No. 5 spot is tied with No. 1 with 12 wins since 1900.
A 30-1 long shot, Line of David, is there this year. He's a speedster, but most think he'll burn out down the stretch.
7. Devil May Care (10-1)
The lone philly in the field is unlikely to spur the DJ's to play "This One's For the Girls" on Saturday.
The No. 11 post position has produced three winners since 1900, and phillies are all the rage.
Still, this horse has been so spotty leading up to the Run for the Roses.
It's hard to get behind her pulling off the fourth-ever philly win at the Derby.
6. Jackson Bend (15-1)
I've loved jockey Mike Smith since the first time I saw him race at Saratoga.
He's drawn a good ride, as Jackson Bend has shown he could hang with Eskendereya, finishing second to the supposed pre-injury Derby lock at the Wood and the Fountain of Youth.
The horse is in a sardine can of a spot in the 13th post position, but it's not an unprecedented spot—the position has produced four winners since 1900.
5. Ice Box (10-1)
Yes, this horse has had a long layoff. But the team drew a primo spot.
The No. 2 position has won the Derby 29 times in 135 races, including nine times since 1900.
Jockey Jose Lezcano and his team drew the lucky spot. I still think the layoff since the Florida Derby comes into play too much for a win.
4. Paddy O'Prado (20-1)
Here's why I'm high on this horse.
The No. 10 post position is a prime spot.
You're close enough to the inside to get to the rail when you need to, yet outside enough to avoid the heavy traffic.
Seven of the last 53 winners have come from here.
Working against jockey Kent Desormeaux is the fact that the horse was whooped by Stately Victor at the Bluegrass.
Still, it's a sweet spot.
3. Lookin at Lucky (3-1)
If anyone can break the jinx of the No. 1 spot, it's trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Garrett Gomez.
This horse has five wins coming in, but the No. 1 post position hasn't won the Derby since 1986 with Ferdinand.
That's recent history, but the spot has produced the most overall winners since 1900 (12).
I don't like recent history. Hard for me to go here.
2. Sidney's Candy (5-1)
If you'd talked to me two years ago, I would have never given this horse a shot.
There's only been one winner outside of the No. 16 spot in 52 years. Then Big Brown came along in 2008 and changed our thinking about the slot.
Add in the fact that this horse lit Santa Anita on fire and you have a big maybe here.
I just don't think he has the closing power.
1. Super Saver (15-1)
This horse has a lot going for it on all front.
Historically, the No. 4 post position has yielded 10 wins since 1900.
Then there's jockey Calvin Borel, who rode the 50-1 long shot Mine That Bird to a win last year in the mud.
It's not looking muddy this year though.
Borel has a much more probable ride here. Pundits feel this horse is having a great week of training and is primed for a cannon shot out of the gates.
Borel goes back to back.