Since guessing correctly on where talented Cali QB Max Wittek would go (which was like predicting that it would rain in Seattle), I'm feeling confident in my ability to predict where some other major 2011 talents could end up.
One of them is 2011's most talented and explosive wide receiver, Kasen Williams.
The 6'2", 195-lb prospect out of Sammamish, WA, holds offers from all over the country and is the top target for every school that likes to throw the ball, and some that don't.
Let's check in on where he might decide to go before he makes his next big cut, which is rumored to be soon.
In an article behind a Scout paywall, Williams alluded to visiting Oregon before the Rose Bowl, but didn't mention how high they were in consideration.
That they got a visit is a good sign, but if I had to pick a major Pac-10 school that won't be making his next cut, it would probably be the Ducks.
Their recruiting has been solid under Chip Kelly, but the wide receiver position is not far enough along in the offense's development to warrant a serious look from 2011's best wide receiver.
However, if they do manage to make the next cut, and Oregon's QBs put on a strong showing through the air this fall, it could put them in contention for a final spot on his list.
The Cardinal have been on an absolute tear in recruiting.
They closed their 2010 class by snatching Bay Area QB Brett Nottingham away from UCLA and DE Blake Leuders from Notre Dame, then opened the 2011 class with a whopping nine verbals, including ones from Scout's No. 6 QB, Evan Crower, and top 10 running back Amir Carlisle.
With the nucleus of serious offense growing, why wouldn't Williams consider Stanford?
If they indeed are the up-and-coming player in the Pac-10, with its strongest QB, backed up by two more top 10 slingers, there's a chance that in WIlliams, Harbaugh lands his biggest recruit yet. And he's never been one to doubt himself.
The only thing holding the Cardinal back would be Harbaugh's job security. He'll be the top target of every embattled program at 2010's end. By Signing Day 2011, will he still be around to seal the deal?
I think based on their recruiting momentum, they'll make his first cut. If they do, they have as good a shot as anyone in the Pac-10.
BYU may seem an unlikely destination for Williams—the honor code, the conference and the general, if unwarranted, lack of prestige make it a less-than-desirable location for recruits that aren't Mormon.
But there's a strong possibility that Williams' old quarterback at Skyline High School, Jake Heaps, will be starting at BYU by the time Williams enrolls in college.
Heaps, also a five-star recruit, enrolled early at BYU and ended spring camp neck-and-neck with junior Riley Nelson for the starting job.
Williams was Heaps' go-to guy throughout high school, the man that got him those epic numbers. As Kirk Herbstreit reminds us countless times in the NCAA video game series, the special connection between a wide receiver and his quarterback should not be underestimated.
If BYU makes Williams' cut, it will be because he's interested in reconnecting with his high school QB down the line. It's an in the other schools can't boast, and Bronco Mendenhall would be wise to talk it up.
Williams took a visit to LA to check out both USC and UCLA before starting the process of narrowing down his decision.
That's either a sign that the Trojans are one of the teams on the chopping block, or that they're in good shape, and Williams is merely reaffirming his confidence in the program.
Williams would enter Southern Cal with the QB position well-stocked (backup QBs Jesse Scroggins and 2011 commit Max Wittek are both top 10 talents) and, with Barkley the likely No. 1 pick, well-established.
Based on how the Trojans have recruited the wide receiver position this past year, USC fans have to like their chances. Kiffin is a slick recruiter particularly for offensive talent. Even with the depth he's accrued at wide receiver, it's never wise to count the Trojans out of a race for a five-star on offense.
Whether Williams is USC's top priority is another matter. With five-star WR George Farmer an easy battle, and Mater Dei WR Victor Blackwell hoping to join his teammate, Max Wittek, you have to wonder how many scholarships Kiffin and co. want to devote to wide receiver over linebacker, defensive back, etc.
How the offense gels with its receivers, and how well the defense overcomes last year's epic collapse, should determine how adamantly the USC staff pursues Williams.
At this point, I'm guessing the Trojans will make his first cut. After that, it's still unclear.
The Bruins found their legs in recruiting this past year, though Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow could use a wide receiver of Williams' caliber to complement the quarterbacks and running backs they've landed.
That Williams made it down for an unofficial bodes well, and the need is really there for the Bruins, so one can assume Neuheisel and co. are doing all they can. If the cut is 10, I think UCLA is in fine shape to make it out the other side.
But with only a so-so record in the Pac-10 and nothing to promise in the immediate future but more promises, they Bruins will need to scrap to survive until fall if another cut is made. Their offense has come under criticism, sometimes from its own players.
Unless they can show they're more than just a conference also-ran, Williams might wonder if he, too, will be another casualty on the books. The signs are optimistic that that won't be the case, for what it's worth.
Cal was another school Williams said he would be visiting on his way to LA.
He also mentioned the Bears were one of the schools recruiting him hardest. Per the article, they will definitely be making his next cut
Last year, the Golden Bears showed new life in the recruitosphere, landing Scout's best safety, Keenan Allen (who will actually be playing receiver), top defensive end Chris Martin, and solid linebacker Cecil Whiteside. They've opened 2011 by switiching defensive tackle Mustafa Jalil's commitment from San Diego State to Cal.
I like them to survive his next cut and contend for an official visit. Their offense aligns with what he's looking for at the next level, and he'd be the best prospect Jeff Tedford's landed at the receiver position since Desean Jackson, whom Tedford got a lot out of, to say the least..
Besides thinking that Notre Dame is where Kasen should go, I think the Irish have a really good chance to land him.
Scout ran an article on how Kasen would keep an eye on Notre Dame this fall, and mentioned that he liked how much they were looking to pass the ball under Coach Kelly.
The Irish are about to land a top pass-catching tight end, Ben Koyack. This bodes well for Kelly's chances at getting top recruits, the one knock many Irish fans had against him and his resume.
I think if Kasen's recruitment is to stretch beyond the West coast/Pac-10, ND will have a really, really good shot at him.
In the Scout article I keep hotlinking, Florida was one of the schools Kasen said would definitely make his next cut.
The Gators got on him early and, unlike the rival Tide, have managed to stay high on his list of preferred candidates in spite of the distance.
I'm unsure whether Williams has actually visited Gainesville in person, but it's a good bet he will either this summer or in the fall, on an official.
Having signed one of the most epic defensive recruiting classes in the history of the sport, the Gators now turn their attention to reloading on offense.
Williams, who is just as lethal in the short passing game/option route heavy offense the Gators run as he is on the long bomb, will be target number one now that Florida is looking to get vertical.
The Huskies are the hometown favorites for Williams, boasting a disciple of Pete Carroll—no slouch at recruiting—at the helm and an "it" vibe of their own in the Pac-10.
Sarkisian closed his 2010 class on a high note, lifting safety Sean Parker away from the Wolverines on Signing Day, and landing nine commits already for 2011—one from top running back Brendan Bigelow of Fresno, CA.
Incidentally, his dad played for the Huskies as well.
I think the Huskies are a slam dunk to make his next cut, and are in even better position to make it to the finalists table. Sure, visiting UW's campus is easy, but it's not out of idle interest.
With Locker shaping up to be 2011's top draft pick and Nick Montana eying a starting QB spot, the Huskies are in good shape to challenge for a Pac-10 title well into the future, or at least as long as Sark's still around.
Williams knows he can be a big part of that renaissance if he stays home. And with the offense the Huskies are running, his pro prospects can only get better.