Welcome to the first installment of "If I was a betting girl" (which I am by the way... did I mention I won $230 on Forrest's victory over Rampage?)! In this post I'll be discussing the odds on some upcoming fights that I find too hard to resist. Now mind you, when it comes to MMA I like to bet on the underdogs. First off, it makes it more fun and second I find it hard to lay down $100 to win $20 on a sport where anything can happen (see Matt Serra over GSP).
I decided after my win last weekend on Forrest vs Rampage to share my thoughts on upcoming fights for those of you looking for some help in placing your bets.
** These odds were taken from Sportsbook.com on 7/10/09.
Here we go, let's start with the July 19th UFC event feature Anderson Silva:
- Anderson Silva (-600) VS James Irvin (+400) - I have to put some money on Irvin here. This is Anderson Silva's first fight at light-heavyweight, so who knows how he'll adjust to the bigger and stronger opponent. Plus, Irvin is a guy that likes to stand up and bang so he always has a shot at landing something, and, he's got power in those punches. Although standing with Anderson Silva isn't always advised, when it's James Irvin at +400 I'll take some of that action.
- Brandon Vera (-625) VS Reese Andy (+425)- Vera is definitely the favorite in this fight, but Andy is a great wrestler and a very powerful fighter. He's the kind of fighter that could take Vera down, hold him there, and land some decent shots for 3 full rounds. Although it wouldn't make for a very exciting fight, it could produce a victory for Andy. This is Vera's first fight down at 205, but he was never that big of a heavyweight so I don't see him having a huge size advantage over Andy. I think the odds on this are so skewed because it's Andy's first fight in the UFC, but he's 7-1 with 6 fights in the IFL and was a high caliber NCAA wrestler, so he's no newcomer to competition. If Andy can get the fight to the mat consistently, I think this is a great underdog bet.
On to UFC 87 in August:
- Brock Lesnar (-275) VS Heath Herring (+215)- To be honest, I'm not quite sure why Brock Lesnar, at 1-1 in his MMA career, is favored over Heath Herring at 28-13. I would be all over this. Heath has fought the best and toughest at heavyweight, and often made it very close. He's on a new strength and conditioning program and is coming off a victory over a very big and strong Cheick Kongo, so he knows how to fight bigger and strong opponents. Herring did have some problems with a wrestler when he lost to Jake O'Brien over a year ago, but I think his experience and toughness will win this fight for him. I don't think Brock has what it takes yet to compete with a veteran like Herring.
- GSP (-265) VS John Fitch (+205)- The odds on this one aren't "great" and GSP is the man, showing he can deal with wrestlers in his victory over Josh Koshchek, but I think Fitch has the talent to make this fight really close. For that reason, I wouldn't mind dropping some money on Fitch. This isn't as good of a bet as the others, but a gut feeling.
Affliction: Banned:
- Fedor Emelianeko (-450) VS Tim Sylvia (+300)- Yes, Fedor is considered by many to be the best heavyweight ever, and even the best pound-for-pound fighter ever. But Sylvia has serious reach and a very awkward style. We saw him beat up on Nogueira's face for a few rounds before being caught in a submission, so we know he can cause a fighter fits. Sylvia definitely has the ability to use his jab and create a very slow paced fight on the feet, and thus make out a boring victory. But a boring victory at -300 when I've got money down is pretty exciting to me. Fedor hasn't fought a quality opponent in about 18 months (disclaimer - Matt Lindland is a quality fighter, but the size difference was a little silly), so look for him to have some rust when it comes to dealing with a quality fighter as awkward as Sylvia.
So there you go, installment #1 and some thoughts on good underdogs to lay some money on. You can let me know what you think by leaving a comment! I'd love to hear your thoughts.
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2 months ago
I like to bet on underdogs too, but of course it's hard to win consistently when a fighter is priced at +400. Sometimes the payoff isn't worth it, unless you only bet a small amount. I try to find a steal, when a guy is at like +140 or something and has a 50% chance of winning. I also place bets on slight favourites, when a fighter is between -110 and -150.
I look for fights where the styles match up well, because I think that is the most important part in picking a winner. For example, Herring and Fitch might look like decent bets at over +200, but I wouldn't put money on them, because they will just get outwrestled all day long. Anything can happen in a fight, but you have to play the percentages and bet smart.
I just trust my gut feeling the first time I see a line. For example, I jumped all over the Matt Wiman line when he was +300 against Thiago Tavares (won $45 there). I didn't think Wiman should have been a 3-1 dog, and others agreed, because that line moved quick. I also put some money on Caol Uno at +300 against Shinya Aoki. Even though Aoki will probably win, those odds are too good to pass up, from a stylistic point of view. And that line is around +250 now, so you have to get your money in at the right moment.
Great article Rachel. I was thinking of writing on article on the finer points of MMA betting, but didn't want people to bet on my picks and then lose money if I was wrong. Then they would get really mad at me. Every betting article needs to have a disclaimer: "Read and gamble at your own risk". I look forward to your future articles.
from 2 months ago
Kiss your money goodbye on the pick against Aoki!
2 months ago
At least if people here are influenced to vote for your picks and lose some bucks, they will probably forgive you more quickly than they would Jad (Thats not to say you are not both gorgeous people; it is because Jad has been here longer and you are new.) This is another really good article. As a former RN who worked in Labor and Delivery, I also go by my gut and it has seldom led me wrong.
2 months ago
Ryan: I knew you would respond, sooner or later. Ha ha.
I only bet $15 on Uno, so I get $45 if he wins. I wouldn't have put a huge amount on him anyways, because on an even-money pick I'd probably take Aoki. But that's why they have odds, to give you an incentive to bet on the underdog. I think Uno wins this fight at least 33% of the time, not 25%.
If you're feeling that confident, why not lay some coin on Aoki? He's between -320 and -350 on most sites. See, if you think that Aoki wins this fight 75% of the time, then that is a good bet to make. Personally, I don't like betting on any favourite who is higher than -200, unless it is an extremely favourable match-up stylistically (eg. Fedor vs anybody, but I don't have enough money to generate a decent profit by betting on him against Tim).
from 2 months ago
I have actually bet on Aoki and then but a blind on him winning the Tourney. One of these days Aoki is going to get caught and dropped I just can't see Uno being that guy.
Best bet I ever made was the first time Silva fought Franklin. I got Silva at -220 in Vegas. I was there with a Bachelor party and had some cash 2 spend so I put 300 on Silva. It got better when I scored tickets and got to see the fight live. Nothing better than watching Silva crush Franklin and knowing your making a crap ton of money. It was a good day.
I can't believe anyone would take Herring with a +215. I think Lesnar is going to take him down and pound him out.
I like Frankie Edgar -155, Franca is going to have some ring rust and is going to get taken down over and over just like the Sherk fight.
I'm also thinking about dropping a bet on Huerta at +140. He's a hometown boy and I can't bet against GSP.
from 2 months ago
I meant I got Silva at +220 not -220. -220 wouldn't have been bad, but +220 was much much better:). I think it's time for me to go to bed.
2 months ago
Clearly this is just my opinion and certainly don't promote people place their money on my bets/opinions.
If nothing else it's just a great way to get discussions going back and forth!
Thanks everyone for your responses! Good Luck to us all.
2 months ago
Edgar is a good bet, he will probably outwrestle Franca for a decision. Same thing with Lesnar over Mir.
I'm not sure about Huerta though. I don't see what advantages he has over Kenny. Florian has better striking and jits, with about equal wrestling, cardio, and heart. Huerta needed a miracle flying knee to beat Guida. If anything, Florian at -150 is a safer bet.
It's you're call though. I just don't see how Huerta can win, and that's the most important part when it comes to choosing a winner.
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