The top two running backs in the rankings need no introduction or explanation as to why they are the top two. After that, it can get a little dicey.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Steven Jackson, Rams – I believe Jackson will bounce back to the top fantasy form previous to last year. He was hampered by injuries last season, but it was really the first time it's happened in his career. When he’s healthy, there’s no doubt that he’s one of the top two or three backs in the league.
4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles – With the Eagles not adding a number one receiver this off-season (Moss, Fitzgerald) and only adding DeSean Jackson in the draft, Westbrook will return as the Eagles top option on offense. He has the ability to lead the team in rushing and receiving game after game. He will continue to carry that offense on his back and will put up numbers in both the rushing and receiving categories.
5. Marion Barber, Cowboys – I have him rated higher than most because I trust him to consistently produce over guys like Larry Johnson and Frank Gore. To me, they are wild cards and I’d rather take Barber here. He will be the main man this year (mostly), especially on the goal-line.
6. Joseph Addai, Colts – I know that Dominic Rhodes is back, but in the time he was gone, Addai established himself as the number one back. They won’t split carries like they did two years ago. I like Addai for his rushing and receiving stats, especially if Manning’s knee is more serious than previously reported.
7. Marshawn Lynch, Bills – Lynch is a beast, period. He reminds me of Barber. Even when opposing defenses consistently stack eight men in the box last year, Lynch still ran over, through, and around them. Now that they have added another threat in WR James Hardy, Lynch will have a little more breathing room.
Sleepers:
- Chris Johnson, Titans – The Titans drafted Johnson as a change of pace back to LenDale White. However, the Titans are realizing just how good and versatile Johnson is. They are lining him up in the backfield, in the slot...pretty much all over the place. If LenDale starts with his antics, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson start taking more and more reps away. This guy is lightening in a bottle, draft him late.
- Selvin Young, Broncos – Young showed signs last year of being a capable back in this league. With Travis Henry gone, Young takes over the majority of the carries. The Broncos added Michael Pittman, but his inability to stay healthy could make Young the premier back.
- Julius Jones, Seahawks – I realize I was in the minority, but I always liked him in Dallas and thought he wasn’t getting a fair shake. I think he can produce at a high level in this league. He may be a sleeper; the only thing I worry about is T.J. Duckett getting the goal-line carries. We’ll see how it plays out.
- Thomas Jones, Jets – These next two aren’t really sleepers, more so guys that could breakout. I’m still not ready to give up on Jones just yet. With a new and upgraded offensive line (Faneca, Woody) and some other weapons on offense (Keller, Franks), I think Jones could break out again. Watch out.
- Reggie Bush, Saints - Bush, really? Yes, really. Bush hasn’t brought his college game to the NFL, leaving some people to say he’s a bust. I’ll tell you what I see. I see a RB in his third year, the year most say players start to break out. I see a healthy Deuce McAllister to take the hard carries, which isn’t Bush’s forte. I see possible return stats, receiving stats and rushing stats. If this guy can find his niche, he could be explosive on the field.
Misconceptions/Stay away from:
· Matt Forte, Bears – I can’t believe I’m hearing his name around as a top fantasy sleeper. It’s not a testament to how good or bad he is, I really liked him coming out of college, my problem is the Bears offense. They have no offensive line, no wide receivers and no quarterback. You could put Tomlinson back there and I’d stay away from him. It annoys me that just because Forte is the favorite for carries, people immediately want to grab him for their team. Listen, the Bears offense might be the worst in the league this year, not to mention there’s no guarantee Peterson won’t take some carries as well. So go ahead, draft Forte. I’ll be the one laughing when he produces the same stats that Benson and Peterson did last year.
· Frank Gore, 49ers – He will be a boom or bust player this year. Mike Martz is coming over from Detroit. Will Martz ruin Gore’s production with his pass happy offense like he did to Kevin Jones in Detroit, or will he utilize Gore like he did with Marshall Faulk in St. Louis? The Niners have no QB, so I’m leaning towards Martz running the ball more than he usually does. I just can’t be certain. The chance of Gore being a bust is too close to call for me to draft Gore with my first pick.
· Larry Johnson, Chiefs – The Chiefs have almost an entire new offensive line, not to mention not having a QB that is worth a damn, at least up until this point. Will he stay healthy? And even if he does, can he produce in that horrible Chiefs offense? I’m staying away.
· Willie Parker, Steelers – He could probably lead the league in rushing again, but he still wouldn’t be as good of a fantasy option as some might think. We’ll see how it plays out, but I think Mendenhall will take the goal-line carries this year, leaving Parker with just a bunch of yards. Also, Mendenhall might even take some carries away between the 20’s. I would still draft Parker, but I don’t think he’ll have many touchdowns.
By: Alex Boylhart
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2 months ago
Good article1
2 months ago
Agreed with Julius Jones. I think he will be more explosive this year with the Seahawks.
2 months ago
You should read up a little more before you post.
Gore led THE NFC IN RUSHING TWO YEARS AGO. lol...how the hell can you run that silly "bust" comment? Last year Smith went down. Trent Dilfer not only couldn't hit water from a boat, but couldn't move if his life depended on it. Defenses concentrated on stacking the box, knowing they didn't have to worry about the pass.
And Steven Jackson? Are you serious? One of the two or three top backs IN THE LEAGUE? His only good showing was two years ago, where he was 5th, and still behind Gore, both in yards, and ypc.
from 2 months ago
I agree on Gore, but I am a little concerned about how Mike Martz will change the offense. It sounds like he is wanting to use a lot of 2 TE sets, and I haven't heard much about how he wants to run the ball other than his praise for Gore receiving out of the backfield. I feel like Gore is still a mid to late first round pick, but he's not in the top 5.
Steven Jackson could end up being the best fantasy RB this year if L.T. declines. He's in a contract year -- unless he holds out for this extension longer -- and could really show all that he is made of behind a healthy Rams O-line.
from 2 months ago
With your strict 49er bias, I shouldn't even reply or consider your opinion, but I will anyway. Are you telling me that with Alex Smith at QB, teams now have to worry about the pass? That is the silliest thing I've ever heard. Whoever the 49ers have at QB is going to be garbage, and Gore will face 8 man fronts. Combine that with Mike Martz, and Gore is a risk. Quit being a homer.
2 months ago
Your sleepers and risks are all valid concerns in my book. I'm pondering the same questions in my drafts right now.
As far as your top 7 go though, I have to disagree. I have concerns about Adrian Peterson getting injured, but I understand that his explosiveness makes him a default top 3 pick for most people. Far from your rankings though, I feel like Addai is set for a big year. I have him in my top 3 (with A.P. just outside at 4), and I don't like Marion Barber until late in the first round. He'll be productive but nothing spectacular. I'd rather take a risk on a guy like Frank Gore or Marshawn Lynch who will be the sole workhorse on offense.
Regardless, like your analysis and rankings once again.
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