Depending on which side of the fence you sit on this may or may not be a wild prediction. I am a huge Kelly Pavlik fan. Just before we move on here, I believe Kelly will outclass and beat Sergio Martinez with ease.
I believe he will win this fight, but there are some things I do not like. I don’t like the style matchup. I don’t like that he hasn’t faced a top opponent since Bernard Hopkins. He was drubbed in that fight.
With that being said, reading an article on ringtv.com made me remember how good Pavlik can be when healthy. He was a pound-for-pound fighter, and was on a very hot run.
Pavlik beat Jose Luis Zertuche, Edison Miranda, and Jermain Taylor (twice). Those are very good middleweights and he won all but one of those fights (second Taylor fight) by knockout.
On the other hand, Martinez has just burst onto the scene in his last three fights. He beat Alex Bunema, who is okay; drew with Kermit Cintron (actually a win); and lost to Paul Williams (could have been a win).
He was 1-1-1 last year, but possibly could have been 3-0. Bunema is a B-fighter, Cintron is an A-fighter, and Paul Williams is an A-fighter. He beat the worst of those fighters.
I know people will blast me and say he won the Cintron fight...and he did. I have to go with the official verdict and it was a draw. Also he could have won the Williams fight.
When you compare the two runs, I would say Pavlik beat the slightly better opposition.
Pavlik is mislabeled as a power puncher and nothing more. He does have great power but he has a great jab. He also won a national amateur title and you don’t win those by power punching.
His hand speed isn’t the best, but it gets the job done. I really believe his boxing skills are overlooked a lot. The other factor that will make this a mismatch is the weight difference.
Pavlik is a natural middleweight whereas Martinez has fought at light middleweight or below. Williams has average power and put Martinez down.
If he trades with Pavlik he will go to sleep. Pavlik has an average chin but he should be able to take a flush Martinez shot.
When I look at it more Pavlik just looks like the clear-cut winner. He has fought the better and bigger opponents. He has more power and is the bigger guy.
He loves to fight and he wants to prove people wrong with this fight. Not only does he want to win, he wants the knockout.
He is still the middleweight champion, and is going to remind people of that on Saturday. Not only is Kelly Pavlik going to win, he is going to make a statement.