Fantasy Football: Comparing Draft Theories

Lee Johnson by Senior Analyst Written on July 14, 2008
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Pick 2RB Theory Triplets Theory Best Available
1 1802 1727 1806
2 1689 1703 1771
3 1687 1725 1771
4 1751 1765 1762
5 1690 1758 1684
6 1641 1644 1802
7 1655 1643 1798
8 1633 1669 1701
9 1652 1656 1668
10 1649 1638 1679
11 1632 1647 1662
12 1647 1643 1664


Projected Points for Your Two Starting RBs

Pick 2RB Theory Triplets Theory Best Available
1 494 471 471
2 443 471 429
3 441 444 429
4 461 421 429
5 445 411 402
6 441 381 338
7 443 355 338
8 415 351 347
9 415 351 355
10 422 381 326
11 423 388 374
12 427 338 378

Observations:

  • As expected, you're going to field your best RB tandem using the 2 RB theory.
  • Tony Romo can mean money at the No. 5 position if you get a strong RB in the first. Triplets theory by far outscores the others in that position for starter points. Joe Addai and Chad Johnson joined him there.
  • Taking Tom Brady with Trips at position No. 6 and then waiting until Round Three for RB only put Trips three points ahead of 2RB in starter points. Going Brady and then Wayne, Chad Johnson in the best available theory made a huge jump in starters. Moral of the story? HAVING to take a RB in there can hurt your team overall on Sunday. Looks like they can wait until the fourth.
  • If you feel like you have to go RB in the first two rounds and don’t have the No. 1 pick, the No. 9 hole seemed to work for overall roster. Came in third for starters though.

 

Conclusion

We have had the 2 RB theory jammed in our heads for years. It causes many owners to panic on draft day and reach for a player that simply isn’t going to score as many points.

In some cases above, it was shown that waiting all the way to the fourth round to take a RB can be effective if you get the right players in the first three rounds.

I know, this would still be very hard to do without panic. It appears that if your not in the very top of the first round, 2 RB is not always the way to go.

The outright favorite here for putting up points on Sunday was taking the best fantasy player on the board five-sixths of the time.

Another goal in this was to see what strategies appeared to favor each draft position.

I hope this has helped, if not in your drafting this year, in killing some time crunching some fantasy numbers waiting for the season.

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written on July 14, 2008 Sports


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