Seven Rules for Successful NBA Drafts

5. Beware of Highly-Touted Import Prospects—Especially the Big Ones

Players from abroad are getting quite a few looks from GMs nowadays, and despite the frequent misses and reaches on draft day, many prominent basketball minds are convinced that such players can accurately be forecast.

Maybe they can, but the embarrassing success rate of GMs thus far leads me to believe that they’re not learning fast enough.

Every year, an import arrives in the lottery, and every year since 2002 (when Yao was drafted), we’ve been let down. When your name gets run alongside Andrea Bargnani and Darko Millic, you’re not looking good.

Conversely, lesser-known imports seem to have a surprisingly high success rate. I don’t know why or how, maybe it’s a coincidence.

But I do know one thing—guys like Manu Ginobili and Andrei Kirilenko didn’t even get invited to the green room.

See Also: Rafael Araújo, Nikoloz Tskitishvili

4. Youth is Not a High-Priority Skill

How many times has your club passed on an upperclassman from college because, although he was better than another player, he was a year or two older?

It’s true that younger players may very well possess more potential. But in the NBA, a career could last over 10 years—especially for a lottery pick.

It's not football, and we’re not racing against a four-year window. This isn’t baseball, and we’re not looking for pitchers with fewer than 800 innings pitched. This is basketball, and these kids can play every day if they want.

Give the older kid a chance—potential might not ever turn into anything on the court. And most importantly, people develop at different rates. Just being younger doesn’t even guarantee a guy has more potential.

With a high draft pick, don’t be in a rush to take Marvin Williams over a Chris Paul. Unless the gap in potential is immense, you’ve got to take the wire-to-wire stud, even if he wasn’t born in 1990.

Why not? Marvin Williams

3. Do Not Draft Unproductive Players, Period

DeAndre Jordan is going to be so bummed to hear this.

Unless the kid is a projected top-three pick, if he has enough potential to even garner pro-interest despite being unproductive, you should be wary of the fact that he’s coming out.

Also, the college game is not as intense, bruising, or as competitive as the NBA game. Simple logic—if he’s not good at the lower level, don’t draft him over a guy who was, and then expect him to outperform said more-successful player.

When put that way, it seems kind of silly, doesn’t it?

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