2010 N. L. East Preview: Mets Could Finish in NL East Basement

The general consensus is the Mets will be improved in 2010. As the new season approaches, it is impossible to imagine that the ballclub could run into as much bad luck as they did last season-a year which can best be described as a complete debacle.

Wanna bet?

It’s just three weeks before Opening Day, and it appears the baseball gods have already started toying with the franchise for their own amusement. Last year, three key players — SS Jose Reyes (34 games played, hamstring), CF Carlos Beltran (81 games played, knee), and LHP Johan Santana (26 starts, elbow)—missed substantial time due to injuries. While Santana appears to have recovered from his elbow soreness, both Reyes and Beltran are already a source of concern for the team.

Reyes has been diagnosed with elevated thyroid hormone levels and will be sidelined for anywhere from two to eight weeks-during which time he can’t do anything strenuous that would raise his heart rate. And then as spring training approached, Beltran underwent surgery on his right knee. It was a decision that was made without the blessing of the Mets' organization and caused quite a bit of a stir in The Big Apple. He will miss the first month of the season.

So there is already high drama in Flushing.

And as if that isn’t bad enough, all of this occurred after a winter in which all of the other teams in the division improved and the Mets treaded water. Hey, Mets fans, Jason Bay is NOT going to be much of an improvement-you won’t see good power numbers from him in CitiField and you’ll abhor his defense in ANY ballpark. The team obviously hoped a return to health by Reyes and Beltran would be the elixer for an offense that ranked 25th in runs scored (4.14 rpg) in all of baseball.

Meanwhile, the front office did nothing to address the club’s poor pitching (a 4.45 ERA, where league average was 4.32), a staff which was worse than all others in the division except Washington (THAT is damning with faint praise). Other than Santana, only John Maine (4.43) had a sub-5.00 ERA among the starters… and he made only 15 starts.

Hey, Omar, the Bay signing was EXACTLY what the doctor ordered!

So while I expect the Metropolitans will likely finish ahead of the Nationals in the NL East, I am not prepared to bet the mortgage payment on it.

Key Additions: C Rod Barajas, OF Jason Bay, C Henry Blanco, P Kiko Calero, C Chris Coste, P Kelvim Escobar, 1B Mike Jacobs, OF Gary Matthews, Jr

Key Subtractions: 1B Carlos Delgado, P JJ Putz, P Tim Redding, C Brian Schneider, OF Gary Sheffield

Key Performer, 2010: Oliver Perez

Starting Rotation

The rotation went from being one of the best in the league in 2008 to one of the worst in 2009. Aside from Santana (13-9, 3.13 ERA), nothing went right-and even with Santana, there are lingering doubts about his elbow. Mike Pelfrey (10-12, 5.03) took a major step backward in his second full year in the rotation… moving forward, the organization has to be wondering whether he will be the pitcher it saw in 2008 or the one it endured in 2009. Righty John Maine (7-6) slots into the rotation behind Santana and Pefrey… his overall performance has declined each of the last three years and he needs to show the team that he’s the same guy who won 15 games in 2007.

Southpaw Oliver Perez (3-4, 6.82) could be the key to the rotation… and, therefore, the key to the club’s fortunes in 2010. He was the worst starter in baseball last year and was eventually shut down after just 14 starts. Southpaw Jonathon Niese (1-1, 4.21 in five games) is my pick to earn the fifth spot in the rotation.

Bullpen

The bullpen could prove to be a major concern this year. Closer Francisco Rodriguez is in danger of suffering a miserable collapse. In 2009, he had his worst save percentage since 2004, and his worst ERA and WHIP ever. He recorded fewer strikeouts and walked more hitters than in any previous year during which he was a regular contributor at the major league level. His slider lost much of its bite—to the point where FanGraphs categorized them more as a curve than a slider.

Kelvim Escobar, who didn’t pitch in 2008, and was limited to five IP in 2009, has replaced Putz as K-Rod’s primary setup man. Yikes! If Escobar proves to be unhealthy, or if his skills have diminished, the setup role may be assumed by newly-signed Kiko Calero.

After that, GM Omar Minaya has assembled a collection of relievers that includes RHPs Bobby Parnell, Sean Green, Nelson Figueroa, and lefty Pedro Feliciano (the only real strikeout guy in the bunch). It’s an okay bullpen, but not one that inspires dreams of the post-season.

Lineup

After Beltran and Reyes-both of whom will start the year on the DL-this is a lineup that is not built for the expansive confines of CitiField. The ballpark sucked the power out of 3B David Wright’s bat (10 HR) and will do the same for Jason Bay, whose game was perfectly suited to play in Fenway Park.

1B Daniel Murphy (.266, 12 HR, 63 RBI) led the team in home runs and finished second in RBIs last year. He should see the majority of playing time at first base, though he could be pressed by FL/KC castoff Mike Jacobs if he struggles. 2B Luis Castillo (.302, 1 HR, 40 RBI, 20 SB) gets on base consistently and steals bases, so he can be penciled in near the top of the lineup.

Whether the team improves on last year’s dismal performance will depend on the health of Beltran and Reyes, and whether RF Jeff Francoeur (.311/10/41) can take the next step towards the stardom once expected of him.

Omir Santas (.260, 7 HR, 40 RBI) and Rod Barajas (.226/19/71) will split starts behind the plate.

Outlook

This is not a team that inspires much in the way of confidence heading into 2010. Even if Beltran and Reyes were healthy, the pitching staff has all the makings of a catastrophe after Santana.

SOX1Forecast: 74-88, 4th place.

NY Mets — Top Five Prospects

1. 1B Ike Davis
2. P Jonothan Niese
3. P Jenrry Mejia
4. OF Fernando Martinez
5. SS Wilmer Flores