Whom Should the Patriots Draft?

The Patriots enter this draft with needs at strong-side linebacker, left inside linebacker, right defensive end, running back, wide receiver and tight end. Not all of those are urgent--they could get by on their present runners, and the acquisition of Alge Crumpler means they don't absolutely have to get a tight end immediately. Still, all those positions could use upgrades, and there are players at all those positions who might fit the bill. The Pats, then, have an opportunity to fix most of what has weakened since they were the dominant team of the league in 2001-07.

This article will go round by round, looking at possibilities.

FIRST ROUND

No decline from earlier years of the decade was as glaring as the disappearance of the Pats' pass rush. Tully Banta-Cain was fine at weak-side linebacker, but no one else put much heat on the passer at all. Derrick Burgess seemed to start playing a little better right at the end of the season, but it's not at all clear that he's the answer.

The most obvious course is to pick the best pass-rushing strong-side linebacker still on the board when they get to their first round pick. Patriots like their linebackers big, the bigger the better. Willie McGinest and Adalius Thomas were both 270 pounds or bigger, and Mike Vrabel was over 260. Banta-Cain, Derrick Burgess, Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi are or were over 250.

As of the time the Pats make that pick, the players likely to be available who fit that profile best are mostly 4-3 defensive ends who will be expected to stand up and become linebackers. Most of those who played linebacker in college are smaller than the Pats like, some barely over 220.

Probably the best prospect of that kind likely to be on the board when the Pats draft will be Brandon Graham, a 263-lb defensive end from Michigan. He had 10 1/2 sacks last year and 10 the year before. He appears to be durable, and has good speed. He might also, as a strong-side linebacker, restore the kind of ability to team up with Ty Warren to shut down strong-side running, a strength in the days of Willie McGinest but less so lately.

Another possibility would be to use the pick to fix the right defensive end position. This was a strength for years, with Richard Seymour an All-Pro, backed up by Jarvis Green, who played well enough that he might have started at a good many teams.

The Pats traded Seymour, whose contract was coming toward its end and who was likely to ask for more money than they wanted to pay a defensive lineman over 30 who'd had a long injury history. They were counting on Green to step up, as he so often had done in the past, and fill in seamlessly for Seymour. Green, however, had clearly lost a step and played poorly last year. After the season, they let him go.

The weakness at right defensive end meant that it was harder for Banta-Cain, or any other right-side linebacker, to get upfield and take away the corner from backs on running plays. It also meant a harder time for Banta-Cain in blitzing the quarterback. Green's failure to close the cut-back lane on the first play of the Ravens from scrimmage in last year's playoff game was the decisive play of the game. Ray Rice started left, cut back, and found no one in his way as he turned a routine running play into a long breakaway. From then on, the Pats had to play catch-up.

In the Pats' 3-4, defensive ends are big, near or over 300 pounds. Typically, they are men who would in 4-3 sets be defensive tackles. That was true of both Seymour and Green, and it remains true of Ty Warren, who mans the left end position for the Pats. So the Pats need a big defensive lineman who is strong enough to set the corner, tying up the tackle sufficiently to let the linebacker take the corner away from runners, while also being big enough to fill the cut-back lane and mobile enough to be a credible pass rush threat. Yes, they need another Seymour.

The player most closely fitting that image who might be a first-round pick and who is likely to be on the board (Ndumukong Suh fits perfectly but he'll be long gone by the time the Pats pick, as will be Gerald McCoy) is Jared Odrick of Penn State. Some mock drafts have Odrick as the Pats' first choice.

Most, however, have Graham. That makes sense. There are some other players likely to be available in the second round who might well be as good players as Odrick, but it is hard to see who comes behind Graham who would fit all the Pats' requirements as well as he does and might make it to the second round. If Graham is off the board and the Pats want to use that pick for an outside linebacker, probably the best after him is Jerry Hughes of TCU, who has many of Graham's good qualities but is not quite as big and may not be as good against the run. The Pats have had Hughes in to talk to him, so they might be interested.

Prediction: Graham

SECOND ROUND

The dominating Patriots attack in 2004 was centered on a big, powerful running back who could take over a game and make defensive fronts pay less attention to rushing Tom Brady. That was Corey Dillon, who ran for bucketloads of yards, with Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass contributing from time to time.

Dillon, however, never repeated that performance for the Patriots. After a disappointing performance by Dillon in 2005, the Pats went out and got Laurence Maroney with their first-round pick. Dillon and Maroney shared the starting job in 2006, both playing respectably but neither making a firm claim to the starting job. After the season, Dillon was gone.

Maroney has had his moments, but has never become the kind of back around whom one can build a whole running game. He has too many off days, and has a tendency, from time to time, to dance in the hole, looking for the breakaway, rather than go through the hole decisively before it closes.

The Pats have actually gotten better work from Sammy Morris, who is more of a fullback than a true halfback, because Morris, though not nearly as fast or as nimble as Maroney, is bigger and runs with authority. Morris, however, is well into his 30's now, and has had ongoing injury problems that have cost him half or more of each of the last three seasons.

The draft has a runner with the kind of size and decisive running that works well in New England. That is Toby Gerhart, the big back from Stanford who ran for an incredible 1871 yards and an even more incredible 28 touchdowns last year. This is a guy who can stand up to heavy use and get the hard yards. At worst, Gerhart can take over the fullback position and give the Pats the kind of dependable hard-yardage running Heath Evans gave them in 2007. He may not be the blocker Morris is; on the other hand, that could give rise to using Gerhart the way the Buccaneers used Mike Alstott for years--on the tail of a two-fullback I, with Morris leading the way for him. Also, as a Stanford man, Gerhart has the kind of smarts Bill Belichick likes in his players.

Gerhart would be the ideal use for the first of the three second-round picks the Pats have.

If the Pats have used the first round pick for an outside linebacker, the issue of right defensive end will still be open. By that time, Odrick will probably be gone. However, Lamarr Houston of Texas is a 302-lb defensive tackle with the quickness to move to the outside.

On the other hand, if the Pats have drafted a defensive end in the first round, it would be time to get a linebacker. Hughes might still be on the board then. An interesting possibility is Greg Hardy of Ole Miss, a 279-pounder who runs a 4.49 40. If Hardy hadn't had two wrist injuries in a one-year period, he's probably be a first-round candidate.

The third second-round pick might be the time to pick up a wide receiver. The Pats have a #1 receiver, Randy Moss. They have two possession guys who can scamper around underneath making life tough for secondaries, Wes Welker and Julian Edelman.

What they do not have this year that they had with Donte Stallworth in 2007 and with David Patten in the championship years, is the burner who forces free safeties to pay attention to someone other than the #1 receiver. If a burner has gotten past the corner covering him and the safety is busy doubling the #1, that's a touchdown.

They have re-acquired Patten, but at 35, he is unlikely to be the kind of deep threat that he was in 2001-2005. In those days, if he caught a pass while moving forward in a seam, he was gone. No one would catch him. He was the best thing to happen to Troy Brown and Deion Branch in those days.

This draft has a lot of possession guys, guys whose 40 time is 4.5 or slower. They may have great hands. They may be elusive enough to make the first defender miss a hit, turning a 5-yard pass into a 15-yard game. What the Pats need, though, is the guy who, if the defender misses, can turn it into an 80-yard TD. There aren't too many of those.

I would suggest that, with Moss still around this year, this is the time to get the receiver who plays the X--what used to be called the split end. You don't need a blue-ribbon guy for that; you just need someone who, if the coverage fails, will punish the defense with a big play. Patten and Stallworth did that for the Pats; nobody did it for them last year.

Next year, the Pats can use that first-rounder from Oakland to get the man who will be the next Moss. If Oakland plays the way it has played for the last several years, that will be a top-ten, maybe even a top-five, pick, with which the Pats can take the best WR in the draft, while still having their own first-rounder to get another blue-chip player.

There are a few burners who might rate a second-round pick. Damian Williams of USC is a burner who may have the ability to turn into a legitimate #1 himself. Another in the same category would be Arrelious Benn of Illinois.

Jacoby Ford of Clemson, though most predictions have him going later, might not be a bad use of the pick, with his 4.34 speed. His top end is probably that he remains a burner in the X position; his bottom end is that he could be the next Bethel Johnson, the burner the Pats took with Anquan Boldin still on the board. The chief knock on him is his size: 5'8 1/2". Still, other receivers that size or not much bigger have done well in this league. The Pats' history includes Randy Vataha, Terry Glenn, and David Patten, all of whom were burners.

Still, this is a pick near the end of the second round, and if Williams and Benn are gone, Ford might be a decent gamble. The Pats have no third-round pick, and Ford would certainly have been worth trying a third-rounder for. The same would go for Carlton Mitchell, a big, fast receiver out of South Florida.

Prediction: Gerhart, Houston and Williams.

FOURTH ROUND

After a busy second round, but a silent third round, the Pats will be ready to draft again, and it might be time to find some competition for Gary Guyton, who has not been awful at left inside linebacker, but has not been a big run-stuffer. It will be time to get a thumper. They don't need a quickness guy inside--that's Jerod Mayo's job. They need the one who stays there in the middle and fills the hole on trap plays and cutbacks.

Mike McLaughlin of Boston College isn't shown as high as the fourth round on most boards, but he is a player who could work very well with the Pats. He has the size (247) and smarts they like, is a big hitter, and is--something they need--a leader. The pickings are fairly thin at ILB, and the Pats shouldn't pass on someone who is such a good fit for them at a time when he will still be available.

Prediction: McLaughlin

FIFTH ROUND

Stephen Neal, the Pats' solid right guard, has decided to play another year, and Dan Connolly filled in well at guard last year. Still, the departure of Neal has only been slightly postponed; by next year they will have to replace him, and Connolly's great value is as someone who can fill in anywhere on the offensive line. (Connolly is the new Russ Hochstein.)

Probably the most talented guard who might still be on the board is Ciron Black, the behemoth guard from LSU. Other interesting candidates are Mike Johnson of Alabama, a smart and tough lineman whose play and character resemble Dan Koppen's, and Mitch Petrus of Arkansas, whose play has already been compared to Neal's. It's an iffy proposition whether Black or Johnson will still be on the board when the Pats use their 5th round pick; my guess is that Petrus will still be there and that the Pats would have a good pick with him.

Prediction: Petrus

LAST TWO ROUNDS

In the last two rounds, the Pats have a bucketload of choices because of the compensatory picks they have coming; two picks in the sixth round and four in the seventh. This is the place to take a look at some guys who either might have a big upside but might be busts and some who look like useful spare parts: special teams players and long-term backups.

One player who might fall to the sixth round is Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour. LeFevour is coming from a smaller program, but has played, and played well, against such big-time opponents as Michigan State. He has been identified as a QB with the "it" factor--that intangible something that makes Tom Brady a future Hall of Famer while others who seemed to have more talent (Tim Rattay was drafted ahead of him) never make it to that level. LeFevour is a guy you bring in and see whether he's got the makings of an NFL quarterback, and he might turn out very well--another Brady or at least another Matt Cassel.

The late rounds are also a good time to look for third-down backs--backs whose size means that they are unlikely to become starters but who are skilled enough that they can do some good things. Kevin Faulk has served the Pats for years in that capacity, but he's getting into his mid-thirties now, and it isn't clear how long he can continue to do it.

Darius Marshall, of Marshall (no, that's not a typo, he really is Marshall of Marshall), is a good receiving back and returns kicks, the things that late-round running backs do. Another prospect, with similar qualities, would be Deji Karim of Southern Illinois, who is 5'8 3/4, 197 and runs a 4.47 40.

One of those 7th round compensatory picks might be the place to look at one of a handful of tiny but almost obscenely fast wide receivers in this year's draft. The most extreme example is Brandon Banks, of Kansas State, who is only 5'7 1/4, 149, but runs a 4.25 40. If that guy gets into an open field, there is no one in the NFL who's going to catch him.

Another possibility in the late rounds is a big thumper of an inside linebacker, Micah Johnson of Kentucky. Johnson won't get you any sacks, and he won't be worth much in coverage, but this is the guy to fill a hole, at 6'2, 256. Last year, Minnesota took a fifth-round flyer on Jasper Brinkley, a bet that seems to have paid off admirably. I'm pegging Johnson as this year's Brinkley. The Pats' history includes Sam Hunt and Ted Johnson, guys who did what Johnson might do for them. No, he's not a Vincent Brown or a Tedy Bruschi, but he won't have to be.

CONCLUSION

In the end, of course, this is all something of a fool's game. Belichick will always do something you're not expecting him to do. I could see him trading two second choices this year for a first next year, or using a couple of choices to pick up a veteran. The shuffle of choices involved in getting Randy Moss remains amazing.

At the same time, there will be picks you're sure he'd make that he doesn't make. I thought for certain that Belichick would draft Connor Barwin--a pass rusher when he needed a pass-rusher, a virtual clone of Mike Vrabel, who had fit so well into the Pats' system. No such luck. The Pats passed on Barwin. I thought they might go for Clay Matthews, whose father had been an All-Pro linebacker for Belichick in Cleveland and who had shown excellent ability at USC. In the event, Matthews appears to be a worthy successor to his father. But Belichick was apparently not interested.

There have been first-round picks that were picks I was calling before he made them--Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson come to mind. There have also been players I thought he might take, but in a different round from when he took them. I thought he'd go for Logan Mankins but thought Mankins would be a second-rounder. I thought Darius Butler might be the Pats' first-round pick last year; the Pats got him in the second.

This is a draft in which the Patriots can score big if they draft right. Their drafts have been a mixed bag; 2006 and 2007 were both disastrously bad, but other drafts, like 2001, have been very good. A month from now, we'll know whom Belichick took; a year from now, we'll know how he did.