With the season quickly approaching and fantasy baseball drafts in full force, it's time we take a look at some average draft positions that I think are too high or too low for my liking.
* I already wrote about why I think Geovany Soto (181.7) will bounce back in 2010, so you can imagine why I believe Soto is a great value in drafts. Just one year removed from a Rookie of the Year campaign, Soto can provide great offensive numbers in the 19th round of 10-team mixed leagues.
* Another great value at catcher, Kurt Suzuki (224.1) provides the same numbers as Yadier Molina (182.1), but 40 picks later. He also throws some sneaky steals into the mix.
* It's not like Adrian Gonzalez (27.8) has punched his ticket out of San Diego just yet, and until I see him in another uniform, he isn't worth a third rounder. He's going 14 picks ahead of Joey Votto, 20 picks ahead of Justin Morneau, and 33 picks ahead of Kendry Morales, all of whom could match Gonzalez's production in 2010.
* It seems like every year Paul Konerko (218) slips to the later rounds, but with three-year averages of .260/27/80, you would think he was getting drafted earlier than the 22nd round in 10-team mixed leagues.
* So far, Brian Roberts (42.9) is the fifth second baseman off the board and trending up despite some recent struggles with his back. Still, I would rather have Brandon Phillips (44.5), Ben Zobrist (64.6), and Aaron Hill (73.2) unless all signs point to Roberts being 100 percent healthy going into the season.
* Third base is very weak this year, but Troy Glaus (217.2) could provide some good production late in the draft. He will be starting at first base for the Atlanta Braves this year, which means he will have dual eligibility as well.
* Yeah, he hit just .223 last season, but Jay Bruce (105.8) has been a home run machine in his first two seasons. In 2008, he hit 21 home runs in just 418 at-bats (19.9 AB/HR) and followed it up with an even better season in 2009, as he hit 22 home runs in just 345 at-bats (15.7 AB/HR). Outside of Jason Heyward, you won't find better power potential in the 11th round.
* There is a lot of speed in the outfield this year, and it's proven by the likes of Juan Pierre (136.5), Nyjer Morgan (137.4), Julio Borbon (138.7), and Rajai Davis (161.5). All four players are legit 50-steal candidates and can be had after the 13th round in 10-team mixed leagues. You might want to reconsider players like Jacoby Ellsbury (20.8) and even Michael Bourn (120.7).
* It seems like everyone is forgetting about the utility players, as Vladimir Guerrero (156.1), David Ortiz (168.3), and Hideki Matsui (173.7) are all going after the 15th round in 10-team mixed leagues. Guerrero is looking good in spring training, and Ortiz will give you near-30 home run and 100 RBI production. Matsui, if healthy, can provide very good power numbers considering he is being drafted in the 18th round and should maintain OF eligibility.
* Much like Konerko, Ted Lilly (197.2) always goes under-appreciated in drafts, and this year is no different. Of course, there are some concerns with his health coming into the season, but he is recovering well from shoulder surgery and could be back by mid- to late-April. Lilly can provide you with a very good K/9, low WHIP, and decent win totals, which is good value in the 20th round if you are willing to hold on to him while he rehabs in the minors.
* Some undrafted pitchers to look out for: Justin Duchscherer (good when healthy), Kevin Correia (great home park and second half), Bud Norris (good strikeout potential), and Ryan Rowland-Smith (great defense and home park and should be No. 3 starter on Mariners).
* Obviously, Chris Perez (221.5) should be getting drafted earlier with news that Kerry Wood (195.5) could be out for two months. Also, Perez owners should feel confident that he will keep his job as long as he pitches well in Wood's absence, so he would be worth an 18th to 20th round pick. Wood should be going undrafted in every draft out there and at best is a reserve pick in deeper leagues.
With the season fast approaching, make sure you check us out daily at Baseball Professor for updated fantasy baseball news and analysis.