The Danger of Buying Into Your Own Hype

As of late, ask any average Joe football fan about the 49ers and they’ll likely tell you two things: We have a good running game and our defensive is pretty good. There I go again, using “we” when referring to the 49ers, but whatever.

Anyway, these two pillars of strength seem to be our last line of defense as we have to endure the onslaught of verbal abuses hurled at our once-great-but-now-an-insignificant team.

Alex Smith is a joke, the Yorks are a joke, our stadium is falling apart, we have fair-weather-wine-and-cheese-at-a-tailgate-bringing fans and we’re in the weakest division in football.

Yes, as these insults are slung in our direction we quickly fight back, claiming our defense is good, Patrick Willis is a beast and we have a good running game. Unfortunately, only one of the aforementioned statements is true.

Yes, our run defense is good and this is important. To have a good run defense is nothing to scoff at, and watching teams rip of six-yard runs at will against your team is one of the most frustrating things there is.
But this is only half of the issue.

While our run defense is really good, our pass defense is in serious trouble.

There are two main reasons for this: Our pass rush is insufficient and our secondary needs help. Defensively, this is what has been keeping us in the bad/mediocre range. I know our “three and out” offense doesn’t help, but that’s another issue; I want to focus on defense.

I’d like to talk about a few key games which our pass defense and lack of rush were really exposed. At the very least, these games should serve to raise some eyebrows and some questions as to the effectiveness of our so called tenacious “D.”

Let’s Break it down:

Atlanta (Week 5)

I think this game was our first true test.

I didn’t even think Minnesota was a true test of our defense because at Week 3, Minnesota was still a run-first conservative team.

Favre wasn’t in gunslinger mode and people had still not heard of Sydney Rice. If we played Minnesota at Week 8 instead of Week 3, the game would have been over at half time.

We were exposed against Atlanta. Atlanta has a good offensive line and we could not get within an arm’s length of Matt Ryan. Additionally, our secondary looked too SLOW.

With our lack of a pass rush, especially on key third and longs, our corner backs and safeties couldn't hang with speedy receivers. Nate Clements, Michael Lewis, Walt Harris, Dre Bly- even the young Spencer. Speed is something the 49ers seriously lack in the back field.

We gave up 329 yards in the air and Roddy White had a career day with 210 yards and two TD’s.

Vs. Colts (Week 8)

I know, I know. “But Jon, we kept the great Manning from throwing a TD pass and we held the offensive juggernaut, the Indianapolis Colts, to only 18 points! Not to mention we sacked Peyton three times and we did this on the road!”

Yes, I know–we did do a lot better than I thought we would do. But this is the hype that I’m talking about. Looking at this game, you might think that our “D” was stepping up, but I think it was just more of the same.

If you watched this game, you realized that Peyton was having an off day. A lot of the passes he was putting up were a little off target and it wasn’t due to us in his face.

Additionally, we were just incapable of getting off the field on third and longs. There were numerous times when on third & 10+ where Peyton just sat back and had all of the time in the world.

The "All Day Alert!" button was flashing red.

Look at the three sacks we did get–they were all from interior linemen. On the downs when the outside pass rushers should shine, when they're supposed to make their money; they came up empty-handed.

While Peyton was not able to pierce the end zone, he had no problem whatsoever in moving the ball up and down the field, passing for 347 yards. Three different Colts receivers had over 50 yards and Reggie Wayne racked up 147 and a TD.

Vs. Packers (Week 11)

This was a very telling game in regards to our pass rush and secondary.

Coming into this game, one would think that even a mediocre pass rush could at least get some sacks on Aaron Rodgers.

What QB was sacked more than Rodgers in 2009 coming into this game? I don’t think any. The Packers O-line had given up 41 sacks before we met them in Week 8.

He was a punching bag back there and 49ers fans, including myself, were licking their chops. We had just given Jay Cutler and the Bears a pounding, so the oft-sacked Rodgers was ours for the taking.

A couple of Packers’ snaps into the game I started to get that weird feeling in my stomach…” Oh, no.” For some reason that same “All Day Alert!” alarm was going off in the Packers game. Maybe the 49ers went into that game thinking that sacking Rodgers would be a given, but the reality was that we couldn’t touch him.

Sure, we did get two sacks in the game, but by this point the damage had been done.

That coupled with the fact that our secondary was getting burned everywhere.
In the end Rodgers threw for 344 yards and three receivers caught for over 50 yards with Greg Jennings going for 126 yards and a TD.

Shawntae Spencer really got exposed in this game.

Vs. Eagles (Week 15)

By this game I had no hopes or delusions about how the 49ers would perform defensively (or offensively for that matter).

Of course Jackson made our secondary look like a junior varsity high school squad. Not to mention that we got a whopping zero sacks on McNabb.

In the end McNabb threw for 306 yards and a TD; Jackson went for 146 yards and a TD

Other Disturbing Facts About Our Secondary

How many games we let a receiver get 100+ yards: Seven

Week 1: Tim Hightower (yeah, Hightower) (121 yards)
Week 5: Roddy White (210 yards
Week 7: Owen Daniels (123 yards)
Week 8: Reggie Wayne (147 yards)
Week 10: Matt Forte (120 yards)
Week 11: Greg Jennings (126)
Week 15: Desean Jackson (140 yards)

Games where the QB had 300+ yards passing: Seven

The only times we didn't allow over 300 yards passing is when we played the Seahawks (twice), Rams (twice), Cardinals, Lions and Titans.

In three of these games we were facing back-up QB's (Wallace, Boller and Stanton for the Lions)

The only time in NFL history where a QB threw five picks but still had over 300 yards passing was Jay Cutler against the 49ers in 2009.

What's the Point?

Our defense is good but by no means is it great.

Sure, we can stuff the run, but teams know that they can throw on us without batting a lash. I think this inflates the run defense numbers that everyone loves to tout.

Yes, I know I sound like a naysayer here, but this issue is just one of many I look at as we head into the draft and into the 2010 season.

So what is the danger of buying into your own hype? Well, I think the Atlanta game is the perfect example of this.

I see mock drafts having us taking a tackle or a corner back, but why not a pass-rusher? Sure, Ahmad Brooks came on a little bit at the end of the season, but what if that was just the result of a fresh player getting off the bench and teeing off against bad teams? I don't remember Brooks getting any sacks against the Eagles.

The bottom line is that we need a consistent pass rush and I hope Ahmad Brooks was not just a flash in the pan. I hope they develop him the off-season and he lives up to our expectations.

Until we can get a consistent-type pressure on opposing QB's, I refuse to drink the Kool-Aid and jump on the "great 49er defense" bandwagon...almost as much as I refuse to jump on the "Alex Smith will lead us to the play-offs" bandwagon.