Clear As Mud: A Look at the NHL's Western Conference Playoff Picture

Well, the playoffs are just around the corner. Those who are looking like locks to make it are prepping to look like the long lost brother to Sasquatch for the next two months, while the others are dusting off their golf clubs for a trip around their local links.

For this look at the playoff race, I’ve pulled information from both Hockey-Reference.com and a new site that I’ve found called NHL Standings and Magic Numbers.

While these numbers may not be entirely accurate, they are the best available at the moment, so just go with it, will ya?

The Magic (or tragic, depending on the situation) number is the number of combined points that the team needs in order to make the playoffs. This means both points gained by them and points lost by other teams.

So let’s start with the West. I tossed around the idea of including Los Angeles, Colorado, and Nashville on this list, but drew the conclusion that it would take a monumental collapse for any of those teams not to make it.

That’s not to say that it couldn’t happen, but their playoff probabilities are all higher than 95 percent which, in my book, makes it a pretty good bet.

14) Columbus Blue Jackets

The Jackets aren’t out of it yet (meaning mathematically eliminated), but they’re certainly close.

After a fast start, their lack of solidity in net caught up to them and Steve Mason will certainly look back at this season as the one that got away. Just about everything that could have gone wrong for the Jackets went wrong this season and extended losing streaks torpedoed their chances almost immediately.

If ever there was a definition of spoiler, though, Columbus would be it. Three games remain against Detroit and two against Chicago. If this team embraces their role and doesn’t mail it in, they could be dangerous down the stretch.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 0.0 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 78
NHL SMN Final Points: 79
“Tragic” Number: 4
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 14
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 14

Verdict: The probability says it all. This team has no chance, but they can hang their hat on the fact that their goaltending is better than it has shown this season and that they’ve shown marked improvement under Claude Noel’s guidance. Just wait ‘til next year…

13) Minnesota Wild

A lot of people are thinking what could have been were it not for an absolutely horrific start to the season.

Minnesota has played quite a bit better of late, but the hole that they dug early on is proving too much to overcome. Consistency has been an issue and the team has struggled to latch on to their new head coach’s system.

The likelihood of Minnesota making the playoffs is extremely slim, but the Wild have the opportunity and ability to play the role of spoiler quite well. Seven of their last nine games are against teams with playoff aspirations and of those, four are against teams whose playoff destiny might not be most certain.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 0.1 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 85
NHL SMN Final Points: 85
“Tragic” Number: 10
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 13
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 13

Verdict: Virtually no chance for a young Minnesota team. Wild fans do have a lot to look forward to, however, as this team is still growing and still learning their new system. With a good offseason, the playoffs might not be out of the question for a healthy team next season.

12) Anaheim Ducks

A rough first couple months of the season really shot the Ducks in the foot, as they have certainly been playing like a team that could make some noise in the playoffs of late.

For all intents and purposes, Anaheim should be a playoff team. Strong goaltending, a solid, young scoring lineup, good leadership. They have all of the hallmarks of a strong playoff team, with the exception of their defense.

While they likely won’t make the playoffs, they do have ample opportunities to move up in the standings with multiple games against teams above them. They simply don’t have enough time to make up nine points, unless the teams in front of them all go into an absolute free fall.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 0.4 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 87
NHL SMN Final Points: 87
“Tragic” Number: 12
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 11
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 12

Verdict: Don’t expect it. The Ducks struggled to find their footing early on this season and their defense hasn’t been what Anaheim fans have become accustomed to over the last few seasons. The organization has serious issues to address on their blue line before they will be a serious contender again.

11) St. Louis Blues

You might think that the Blues still have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, and you might be right—at least to an extent.

They’re currently eight points back with ten games to go. Not insurmountable by any means, and stranger things have happened, but, they certainly don’t control their own destiny.

True, they do have games against Detroit, Nashville and Dallas left (all above them in the standings), but with ten games left and Detroit having two games in hand over them, it’s going to take a minor miracle for these youngsters in St. Louis to make a run at the playoffs like they did last season.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 3.2 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 88
NHL SMN Final Points: 88
“Tragic” Number: 13
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 10
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 10

Verdict: Better than most, but still not good. The Blues will be a playoff team in the near future, but last season saw them playing well above their ability and this year is not that year.

10) Dallas Stars

Dallas has a looooooooooong road into the playoffs if they are to make it.

Currently, they sit five points back from Calgary with as many games remaining and with two teams behind them with more games remaining. It’s going to take a great deal of luck for them to be playing for the Cup in April.

The good news for them is that Kari Lehtonen is beginning to turn it on and that they have the explosive Mike Ribiero and Brad Richards helming their offense. This is a good team that’s run into some tough luck with goaltending this season.

Making their run even harder, of their nine games remaining exactly zero are against teams directly in front of them in the standings. What that equals is the need for a heck of a lot of luck.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 0.4 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 87
NHL SMN Final Points: 88
“Tragic” Number: 12
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 12
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 11

Verdict: Unless every single player on the Stars has a horseshoe tucked inside their breezers and a rabbit’s foot attached to the butt-end of their stick, these Stars aren’t making it this year.

9) Calgary Flames

Just two points behind Detroit, Calgary made its bed with a very poor stretch of games leading into the Olympics.

With Miikka Kipprusof in net, you certainly can’t count the Flames out, but they’re going to be hard-pressed to make up ground on the Wings, especially considering that they have no games remaining against Detroit.

It is certainly a possibility that the Flames make the playoffs, but it’s going to take a great deal of luck for them to do so. Seven of their remaining nine games are against teams that are currently in the playoffs in their respective conference, making their road that much tougher.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 21.4 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 92
NHL SMN Final Points: 93
“Tragic” Number: 17
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 9
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 9

Verdict: The only thing that Calgary can do is win hockey games. With nine games remaining (three less than Detroit), they need some very, very big help from Detroit’s opponents. Calgary misses the playoffs.

8) Detroit Red Wings

Detroit ultimately controls its own destiny. They have three games in hand over the Calgary Flames, who are just two points behind them, and are absolutely on fire right now, having won seven of their last ten and gained points in eight of their last ten.

This will be a bit different from the norm for Wings fans, as they will likely have to be fretting right up until their final game of the season, but they shouldn’t be too concerned. All they have to do is something that they’re well accustomed to from the Red Wings: win.

Hockey Reference Playoff Probability: 84.2 percent
Hockey Reference Final Points: approx. 97
NHL SMN Final Points: 97
“Magic” Number: 17
Hockey Reference Predicted Finish: 8
NHL SMN Predicted Finish: 8

Verdict: Controlling your own destiny is everything in the NHL this time of year. The Wings will be in.

Coming Up...

There you have it, a look at the Western Conference playoff picture.

It’s certainly much more clear and much less muddled than the Eastern Conference, which you can expect later today or tomorrow.

Until then, fans of the teams on the outside looking in can take solace in the fact that they still have the NHL Draft and Free Agency to look forward to. The two days on the offseason calendar where hope springs eternal, no matter how your team finished the year prior.