Saint Mary's Vs. Baylor Handicapping Preview

Ray MonohanContributor IMarch 24, 2010

St. Mary’s Gaels vs Baylor Bears Predictions

Baylor: 27-7 SU, 17-7 ATS
Saint Mary’s: 28-5 SU, 21-10 ATS

Saint Mary’s vs Baylor Odds
Baylor is installed as a -4 favourite.
St. Mary’s +4.5
Over/Under: 145
Moneyline: St. Mary’s +170, Baylor -200

This Sweet Sixteen matchup from the South region will take place at Reliant Stadium in Houston at 7:27PM on Friday.

There is no recent matchup history between these two teams.

Baylor has the advantage of playing in their home state of Texas but the way the Gaels are rolling they might have traded that for a softer opponent. Epke Udoh was off against Old Dominion but they are going to need him to step up against the beast that is Omar Samhan.

If he can hold him below 20 points or match his production form the post than the backcourt combo of LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter should be able to outperform their counterparts. This will be one of the most exciting games of the tournament.

Both teams like to score often and quickly and if the shots are falling one team might break 100 points. Look for Dunn to lead the action. He is their most clutch player and has been attacking the glass as well.

The Gaels are on a run of 7 straight including an upset win in round 2 over Villanova in which they jumped on them in the first half. It was an impressive win on paper but everyone could see that something was wrong with the Wildcats and Saint Mary’s proved it.

There have been some impressive performance from the wing in the tournament but no big man is playing better than Samhan right now. In 2 tournament games he is averaging 30ppg and almost 10 boards. 

Udoh will be his stiffest challenge yet and the winner of this rumble under the hoop will likely see his team advance.

When looking at the Gaels against Villanova it looked like they were putting the screws to them defensively.

This team is all about offense and caught Villanova deep in their funk.

Don’t expect them to limit the potent Bears offense the same way.

Betting Trends:

Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite
Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games
Gaels are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games

Free Bears vs. Gaels CBB Pick

The Gaels are making WCC look good but the slipper is about to break. Dunn and Carter are a great duo and Saint Mary’s just doesn’t have enough in a game where it is likely that Samhan could be neutralized. This will be a very entertaining game but Baylor is showing they can close teams out down the stretch and that they are very good too.

Score prediction: Baylor 89 – Saint Mary’s 80

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