The 2010 Arnold Palmer Invitational Six Pack

I knew Jim Furyk was due.

I just could not pull the trigger on him last week with his rather poor history on the Copperhead Course. That history will now have a gleaming “win” in it.

We did at least knock down a decent 8-to-1 payout with a top-five finish for Nick Watney. I was disappointed to see that Vijay never teed off, as he had been playing brilliantly as of late. The good news there is, the bet is voided because he never started.

This week, we are off to Arnie’s Place—also known as Bay Hill Country Club—for his annual invitational. There were many strong candidates to whittle through this week, making this event very tough to handicap. That said, I really have some solid hitters this week.

I pretty much took a soak in Yahoo fantasy last week. Here’s why:

1. I was in Vegas.
2. I had Vijay Singh in my lineup for three days in Group A.

That town is menacing to be in for more than three nights. Believe it or not, I am happy to be back in the lovely cold rain of Boston once again.

In Yahoo fantasy golf, I currently have 1,699 points. I dropped down in my FOHM group from the 77th percentile to the 72nd. I also sunk into the 79th percentile overall from the once-lofty 83rd percentile. It’s time to grind. I am still ahead of one of the experts, Mike Arkush, by 147 points—yet now I trail the other three: Greg Vara (16), Eric Planer (29), and Matt Romig (92).

Here’s my lineup this week, which will be managed much more closely than last week!

Group A

Start Steve Stricker
Bench Phil Mickelson

Group B

Start Camillo Villegas and Robert Allenby
Bench Charles Howell III and Nick Watney

Group C

Start Charl Schwartzel
Bench Jerry Kelly

Here are my “honorable mentions” for this week, and there are many: Allenby 28:1, Ames 40:1, Howell 55:1, Choi 33:1, Goosen 28:1, Kelly 80:1, Trahan 80:1, Verplank 66:1, Villegas 25:1, and Watney 25:1.

Let’s rock this six pack!

No. 1—Sean O' Hair

O’ Hair has a great track record here at Bay Hill. He has finished 14th, third, and second last year. I really like that improvement progression a lot. He withdrew back in 2006, but he seems to be in fine shape for this week.

As of late, O’ Hair has been up and down from week to week. This week he is due for an upswing. He missed the cut at the Transitions Open last year and then came in second here. Let’s see if he can do one better this year and nail down his first win since last year’s Quail Hollow Championship.

Sean is one of the best players out there, and he tends to perform well in strong fields. Check out these numbers:

Sean ranks 20th in total driving.
He ranks sixth in eagles made with five.
He is ranked 10th in scrambling at 69.67 percent.

O’ Hair offers fantastic value this week at 28:1 odds of winning.

No. 2—Charl Schwartzel

It looks as though ‘ol Charl is playing a few rounds over the pond this year.

That’s fine with me, because the sports books are definitely not giving this guy the respect he deserves. Although he is ranked 26th in the world, he is still somehow flying under the radar.

Charl already has won two events back to back on the Euro tour in early January, and he has a ninth-place finish and a second-place finish at the two WGC events held here in the U.S.A.

It’s quite obvious he can hang with the big boys.

I am not concerned that Schwartzel has never set foot on the track at Bay Hill. Trust me, this guy is going to be there come Sunday. If he were on the PGA Tour, his numbers would impress anyone.

He is first in par breakers at 27.78 percent.
He ranks first in putts per round at 27.25.
He is also third in scoring average at 69.26 strokes per round.

I simply cannot overlook Schwartzel this week at a value-filled 40:1 odds of winning.

No. 3—Justin Rose

I think Rose is coming back into the old form he had in 2008. He is trending up nicely in his last five finishes, with his most recent being a tie for 13th at last week’s Transitions Open.

Rose finished eighth at Bay Hill back in 2006, and he has never missed the cut here in five attempts.

Look at these numbers:

He is seventh in total driving.
He ranks eighth in scoring average at 69.66 strokes per round.
He is ninth in birdies made, with 112.

I am sticking with Rose until he pisses me off again. I love his odds of 40:1 of winning.

No. 4—Graeme McDowell

Another Euro player that I really like this week is Graeme McDowell. He is also under the radar, considering that this Northern Ireland product is ranked 42nd in the world.

McDowell has been playing really well in his last five events, and he is due for a pop into the top five or better. His last five finishes have seen him finish 75th, 14th, 20th, 33rd, and sixth at the WGC CA Championship.

McDowell has played Bay Hill twice—and in 2005, he was runner-up.

His current numbers are quite good:

He is sixth in scoring average at 69.58 strokes.
He ranks 15th in putts per round at 28.13.

Graeme is certainly worth betting on this week, with odds of 40:1 of winning.

No. 5—Zach Johnson

Zach has not been paying as well as he would like as of late, yet his history on this track makes him a great pick. That being said, I can overlook his tie for 85th last week and expect something big from him this week.

In six trips to Bay Hill, he has never missed a cut and has finished sixth, eighth, and third here. The course definitely suits his eye.

Let’s look inside Zach’s numbers:

He ranks eighth in ball striking.
He is ranked 16th in total driving.
He is 21st in par breakers at 23.68 percent.

If you’re giving me 45:1 odds with Zach Johnson, I’m taking them!

No. 6—Ryuji Imada

My long shot this week is definitely worth a look. Imada has a top-20 finish here at Bay Hill, and he has been playing solid golf lately.

His last three events have seen him finish ninth, 15th, and 14th.

Check these stats out:

He is 13th in putts per round, with 28.08.
He ranks 10th in par-three performance on the year at -7 strokes.
He ranks 17th in scrambling at 67.86 percent.

Tremendous value is being placed in Imada this week at 80:1 odds.