Welcome to Ann Arbor, Michigan, Mr. Rodriguez. Now, despite the fact that you are implementing a radically different offensive scheme, you will be expected to win at least eight games this fall. Good luck, coach!
Now back to reality.
There is a reason that the Michigan brass hired former West Virginia head football coach Rich Rodriguez: He is a darn good football coach.
With that said, coach Rodriguez's task for this fall, and really through the 2009 season, will be daunting. Michigan's pro-style offense hit the junk pile as soon as coach Rodriguez accepted the opportunity to be the head coach at Michigan.
With that responsibility, however, came the inevitable: a complete makeover in offensive personnel, beginning with finding a way to make traditional drop-back quarterbacks productive within the spread offense.
Coach Rodriguez's offensive system depends on a mobile and heady quarterback to run the show. Michigan currently does not possess that player on its roster, sans incoming freshman Justin Feagin, who went under the recruiting radar for much of last year. Feagin's skills do fit the spread offense, but a true freshman running the spread will lead to miscues more often than not.
No offense to redshirt freshman Steven Threet, but he is not a spread offense quarterback. Today's Must Reads
Without a spread offense quarterback who has experience playing in the spread returning to the Michigan roster, coach Rodriguez's spread offense loses the threat of a true option and a quarterback that can improvise when a play breaks down, thus enabling teams to blitz more, place more defenders in the box, and key on other skill position players.
The long and short of this year's Michigan offense—it will be terrible.
A few good bets about Michigan's offense this season are as follows: likely to lead the league in turnovers committed (note the quarterback issues above, coupled with coach Rodriguez's prior public comments that he will not alter his scheme this year despite the fact there is no true spread quarterback returning to the roster), bottom five in the Big Ten in yards per game, points per game, yards per carry, and third down conversion rate.
All of the aforementioned predictions are attributed to the quarterback situation. That's just how important the quarterback position is to coach Rodriguez's system. And then there is the issue with the offensive line…
The former Michigan staff preferred the huge, bulky, powerful offensive lineman. The current coaching staff prefers quickness over size and the ability to make blocks in space, i.e. screen passes and swing passes, and hold the edge for sweeps and option plays.
Michigan's offensive line will be in flux during this season and next. In time, the situation will correct itself. This season Michigan will be solid up front, but expect the offensive line to dramatically improve between this season and next. A year in the spread, and a year within the new strength and training system, will enhance Michigan's offensive linemen considerably.
Yes, Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington bolted to the NFL. That will be a tough pill to swallow for coach Rodriguez and his staff. Having that type of wide receiver talent would have made the transition at quarterback much easier. Oh well—Threet will have to grow up quickly.
Michigan will certainly have ample talent at wide receiver, but it will be largely inexperienced beyond junior Greg Mathews.
The good news begins and ends for the Michigan offense at the running back position. With juniors Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown returning, coach Rodriguez will be able to utilize two talents that know what it is like to play in the Big Ten. Both players will be relied on heavily from the outset of the season.
The Wolverines also boast some talented incoming freshman tailbacks/slot receivers that could see early playing time. The question will be, how much time do they need to learn the system so that they help more than they hurt the offense?
For now, Michigan will have to make do with many parts that do not fit the car. That's just the way it is. Coach Rodriguez will have Michigan back on track by the end of the 2009 season, but it will be a long 2008 season.
Prediction: Michigan will be 5-7, largely due to its offense imploding this fall.
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about 1 month ago
Interesting post.
"The long and short of this year's Michigan offense—it will be terrible."
I'm glad there are a lot of people writing off Michigan this year to be 5-7-0.
Michigan is not forfeiting the 2008 season and starting all over again in 2010.
"Terrible"?
Man, I agree that Michigan football is going struggle this fall, but there is little that leads me to believe that Michigan's 2008 offense is going to be under .500 as you suggest. Struggle and fail? Definitely. Lose seven games? No. Here's why:
First of all, I really do agree that Michigan will have problems - perhaps major problems - offensively at the beginning of the year at quarterback and offensive line. But your article suggests that entire Michigan offense will implode into useless quark particles by the 1st quarter of the Utah game. To suggest that unless Michigan has a Terrelle Pryor, Woodrow Dantzler, Rasheed Wallace or Pat White at QB, RR's offense will fail miserably is disingenuos. RR can adjust the spread option offense to suit the strengths of the QB and entire team. Examples are Shaun King at Tulane, who was NOT a good runner (had average speed and quickness, and consider by some to be overweight) but King destroyed passing efficiency records under RR. In other words, it's not Pat White or bust.
Secondly, Steven Threet is about as wrong for Rodriguez' spread option offense as Zak Kustok or Brett Basanez were wrong for Northwestern's spread offense under former Wildcat HC Randy Walker. Threet has the same size, speed and probably better arm strength than either Kustok or Basanez had. Both Kustok and Basanez were quick enough to get into space and do damage rushing the ball.
That's what will be asked of Threet, but not on every play. Has Threet run spread option offense in his sleep since he was 8 years old like Missouri QB Chase Daniels? No. But he's not a disaster waiting to happen either.
Third, Threet was a 4-star recruit, offered by many top college programs (Wisconsin, Illinois, Stanford, GaTech, Miami OH, NC State, Indiana) and ranked 13th nationally as a QB. Because Threet is experienced, do we just hand him 100 demerits for his team contribution? Come on! For what it's worth Northwestern lead the Big Ten in rushing, total offense and third down conversions during Walker's reign with the spread option offense with no Pat White at QB. If coaches like Zook, Hoeppner and Bielema wanted Threet to run their offenses, then he's not a "waste of space".
On the offensive line, yes Michigan lacks "seasoned" experience. But 4 of the 5 projected started did see game experience last fall. All are upperclassmen. So to suggest that Michigan OL is already worse than St. Mary's junior varsity football squad is putting 100% weight on 12-game experience and throwing out potential, talent and practice/system experience.
LT Cory Zirbel, Sr (four star, 20th-ranked)
LG Tim McAvoy, Sr (four star, 14th-ranked)
C David Moosman, Sr (four star, 17th-ranked)
RG Steve Schilling, Jr (five star, 3rd-ranked)
RT Mark Ortmann, Sr (three star, 45th-ranked)
Now call up Charlie Weis right now and ask him whether he'd trade the above UM offensive line for his current offensive line? Then ask Jimmy Clausen, who was sacked 56 times last fall, the same question. I think you'd be surprised by the answer.
Trust me, Michigan's OL is as talented as it has ever been. Combine that with the new S&C of Mike Barwish, a no huddle offense, and the OL will improve more quickly than expected, and probably will negate some of the inexperience factor considerably by the time Michigan faces Big Ten play.
It won't be perfect, but it's hardly the end of days for Michigan football.
If you wanted to dig a little deeper, you could have found the REALLY scary and bad news facing Michigan football this fall: The depth chart at QB and OL. Now that's where Michigan is REALLY INEXPERIENCED. I would agree with your prediction of 5-7-0 if Michigan experiences an injury to Threet at QB and/or more than 2 injuries on the starting OL.
about 1 month ago
Sounds to me like everyone is a little nervous of the Wolverines. Everyone wants to talk down about them. The Wolverines are the true wild card this season. Nobody can call it as not a snap has yet been taken. Be afraid OSU, be very afraid
about 1 month ago
Well, you made the Detroit Free Press with this one. Congrats.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080711/SPORTS06/80711095/1054
about 1 month ago
cfb360, you write as if you possess some expertise. In my profession, before one could qualify as an expert, he or she had to show education, experience or training sufficient to be recognized as such. Would you share yours, please.
from about 1 month ago
John, What is your Profession ?(really don't care) Marks is saying it like it is, everything I read was correct other than the Barwis spelling. Your colors are showing cfb! Great Reply Marksr2007....GO BLUE!!!
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