NCAA Tourney Round 2 Washington Vs. New Mexico Preview

Ray MonohanContributor IMarch 19, 2010

SAN JOSE, CA - MARCH 18:  Forward Venoy Overton #1 of the Washington Huskies goes up for a shot against the Marquette Golden Eagles during the first round of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at HP Pavilion on March 18, 2010 in San Jose, California.  (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

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Team records:

Washington: 25-9 SU, 15-18 ATS
New Mexico: 30-4 SU, 18-14-1 ATS

New Mexico vs UW Odds
Despite the seeding Washington is the favourite in this one at -1.5 (-110)
New Mexico +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 150.5

This second round matchup will take place in San Jose, CA. at 5:50PM.

The last time these two team met was in 2005. Washington won 81-71. No key players from this contest played in that game.

It was far from an impressive performance but New Mexico got the win on Thursday. What was really evident from the game against Montana is how small New Mexico is.


Lucky for the Lobos Montana has more size than Washington so that exposure may not hurt them in round two.

Darrington Hobson had a nice game with 11 points, 11 boards and six assists but he has to be more aggressive. Against the Grizzlies he was third on the team in shots taken. It should be a fantastic matchup between him and Husky wing man Quincy Pondexter (love the names too).

Washington is a better team than Montana but their style of play is exactly what the Lobos are looking for. The question is who can play it better.

When I previewed Marquette-Washington I inferred that the winner of the matchup between Pondexter and Lazar Haywood would likely decide the game.

Their final stat lines were not hugely different but Pondexter took over the last 10 minutes of the game including hitting the game winner.

Against New Mexico Pondexter will have similar duel with Hobson. Both players are athletic and strong but I would give the edge to QP who has more experience and must be brimming with confidence these days. Pondexter also has the better supporting cast and the Huskies lack of beef inside will not be a weakness against the Lobos. 

Interesting stat from yesterday’s game. Only one Husky who took more than one shot did not make at least 50% of his attempts last night.

That player was Pondexter who had a slow start.

If the rest of the team can maintain their efficiency Washington is going to be a very tough out.

Betting Trends:

Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
NEW MEXICO is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

Free Huskies vs. Lobos CBB Pick

Looks like the odds makers have caught on to the fact that for a 3 seed the Lobos might not be very good and that the Huskies might have been under seeded at 11. Unfortunately this takes away my underdog angle as I think Washington will win another close game. Pondexter will outperform Hobson and the back court of Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton will be too much for the Lobos to handle.

Score prediction: Washington 77 – New Mexico 73 

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