2010 Chicago Cubs Lineup Set

On the pregame radio show before the Chicago Cubs' Cactus League match-up with the Texas Rangers Tuesday, manager Lou Piniella set forth his projected lineup for Opening Day 2010.

It included few surprises, but certainly answered some questions about how Piniella intends to build his offense this season, and about who has managed to impress him most during Spring Training.

Here is the lineup as Piniella recited it, along with a brief take on the player's spot in the order (does it make sense, how does it affect their projected stats, etc.) and the logic of the move for the team.

1. Ryan Theriot, Shortstop #2

Perhaps on the strength of his fourth consecutive stellar Cactus League showing, Theriot earned the right to the top spot in the Cubs' order over right fielder Kosuke Fukudome.

Fukudome, who will now bat second, will likely sit against most left-handed pitchers in 2010, a point Piniella affirmed by sliding him down in the order. In light of Piniella's comment over the off-season that he preferred an every-day player in the lead-off spot, the selection of Theriot looks like a commitment to consistent lineup construction.

To really merit this position, however, Theriot will have to regain his 2008 form at the plate. That season, he batted .307, drew 73 walks against just 58 strikeouts, and reached base at a .387 clip.

In 2009, however, his spectacular plate discipline evaporated. He whiffed 93 times and drew only 51 walks, and batted 30 percent of the balls with which he did make contact into the air. These figures didn't allow Theriot to exploit his skill set, and resulted in a much less impressive .343 OBP.

Theriot is committed to getting back to his small-ball ways, however, and could well steal 30 bases in what Piniella promises will be a more aggressive running offense in 2010.

2. Kosuke Fukudome, Right Fielder #1

Fukudome has batted just .258 in two seasons in Chicago, but his .367 OBP in those years makes him valuable anyway. He also discovered a good deal more power last year, hitting only one more home run than his 10 in 2008 but belting 38 doubles and five triples.

Although he has tremendous plate discipline (he swung at just 17.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone in 2009, against a Major League average of over 25 percent), Fukudome has racked up strikeouts by making very little contact on pitches outside the zone (he connected on only 55.3 percent of his chase swings last year, much lower than the league average of nearly 62 percent).

As a good second hitter should, Fukudome hits mostly line drives and ground balls. He is actually a very effective hitter, in that respect. If he were ever able to ratchet up the percentage of balls that leave the park when he does hit them in the air, he may suddenly have 20-homer power.

If he does, or even if he doesn't, he probably profiles better as a fifth hitter in the long run, but the Cubs need him to bat nearer the top of the order because of his sparkling on-base ability.

Fukudome settles into a very comfortable spot in the order, batting directly in front of Derrek Lee, and looks poised for a career-best campaign in 2010.

3. Derrek Lee, First Baseman #25

Lee led the Cubs in OBP last year, so sabermetrically, it makes little sense to slot him into the lineup position that least values OBP relative to other skills.

It's hard to fault Piniella for what is such a widespread standard, though, and Lee will not hurt Chicago regardless of where he hits in the order.

Lee, who had seen his home run output drop off to just 42 bombs in the two previous seasons, rediscovered his power stroke in 2009 and smacked 35 homers.

His commitment to doing so was evident in his batted-ball tendencies, which included a fly ball percentage of 45.7. That is a career high, and in fact, Lee had never before hit even 41 percent of his batted balls in the air.

The shift in approach worked to perfection, as Lee hit home runs on 17.9 percent of his flies in 2009, up from about 12 in each of the previous years, and his highest mark since hitting homers on 23 percent of fly balls in his stellar 2005 campaign.

Despite a Cubs offense that scored 148 fewer runs than it had in 2008, Lee managed a career high with 111 RBI in just 141 games. If his neck spasms are a thing of the past, he could well set a new high-water mark for himself in 2010.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Third Baseman #16

Ramirez is the key to the Cubs' offense in 2010. After a shoulder injury stole half of his season in 2009, it will be up to the 31-year-old Ramirez to prove that he can produce full-season offensive power numbers. He consistently misses about two weeks each year due to injuries, but will need to stay relatively healthy for the Cubs to contend.

If he does stay healthy, however, there is no reason to expect less than excellence from Ramirez. In six and a half seasons as a Cubs, he has knocked in at least 100 runs in all but two seasons. In those two years, one being 2009, he missed a combined 119 games due to injury.

His career slugging average is .503, but since joining the Cubs, he has never posted a number lower than .516, and that came during his injury-plagued season last year.

If the strength has fully returned to Ramirez's shoulder, he should belt 25 home runs to go along with a very solid on-base percentage and a batting average in the neighborhood of .300.

If the Cubs hope to improve upon the National League's tenth-best offense, they will need those numbers from their star third baseman.

5. Marlon Byrd, Center Fielder #24

It is interesting that Chicago has chosen to slate Byrd to bat fifth, because if things go the way the Cubs hope they will, he would be better-suited for the second spot in the order.

Perhaps, if both men show their potential for the first month or so, Piniella will be astute enough to flip-flop Byrd and Fukudome.

In the meantime, Byrd must work on regaining the excellent plate discipline he showed in 2008, when he walked on 10 percent of is plate appearances and posted a .380 OBP. Last year, his walk rate fell by nearly half, and his OBP suddenly dropped to .329.

After three straight years of hitting at least 30 percent more ground balls than flies, Byrd suddenly hit them with equal frequency last season. Add to this his increase in home run percentage on fly balls, which leapt to the highest full-season rate (10.7%) of his career, and it is easy to see how he broke out with a career-high 20 homers in 2009.

A repeat of that performance seems unlikely, though, so the Cubs and their fans will be hoping that Fukudome, left fielder Alfonso Soriano or catcher Geovany Soto can displace Byrd from the crucial power slot in which he is going to start the season.

6. Alfonso Soriano, Left Fielder #12

Already the highest-paid sixth hitter in the history of the game, Soriano may become the highest-paid eighth hitter ever, if Soto succeeds the way many suspect he will in his newly trim condition.

Soriano's batting average, slugging average, stolen base attempts and home run totals have each sagged in every year of his Cubs tenure, and he has not played more than 135 games during those three seasons.

In 2009, he played in just 117 games, and had an awful year. His batting line ended up at .241/.303/.423, and his defense in left field became almost untenable.

Still, the obvious potential is there. He still hits the ball in the air consistently, although his 11.5 percent home runs rate on flies in 2009 was a career-worst. He managed 20 home runs even in such a down year, which demonstrates his power.

He has also gotten more patient at the plate, believe it or not. Although he walked just 7.7 percent of the time last season, that is a step forward from his 2007 campaign, in which he walked in only five percent of his plate appearances, and is a nearly two percentage points higher than his career rate.

With Piniella saying he would like to run more, Soriano could be asked to steal 15-20 bases again, especially if he stays in the sixth spot. He has actually been a very efficient base-runner during his time in Chicago, with 47 steals in 58 attempts, so he has value in that regard.

7. Mike Fontenot, Second Baseman #17

This is the real news-maker, although it comes as little or no surprise to those who have watched the Cactus League unfold. Piniella said Fontenot and Jeff Baker would battle it out for the second base job, and Fontenot has out-hit Baker in every possible way this spring.

As a seventh hitter, Fontenot brings a modicum of both speed and power, and although his plate discipline suffered when he started last season as the full-time second baseman, he has acquitted himself well in that respect in the past.

The prototypical "gap power" guy, Fontenot has notched 22 doubles and nine home runs in each of the last two seasons. He promises some power if given full-time starting duty, and because he will be well-protected by right-handed power hitters on either side of him in the order, he should find relatively few teams able to go to their bullpen just to get him out with a southpaw reliever.

Fontenot got a bit unlucky in 2009, too, with a .276 batting average on balls in play that failed to reflect his true skills. If he recovers in that area, his other numbers will bounce back, as well, and the Cubs will have a very solid second left-handed threat in their order.

8. Geovany Soto, Catcher #18

Don't let the picture fool you: Soto is now in top physical shape, and ready to rebound from a miserable sophomore campaign in 2009.

He batted just .218, but showed signs of actual improvement. His walk rate increased; his strikeout rate decreased. About the only problem was that he batted a miserable .246 on balls in play, in part because of his conditioning.

All that has turned around now, of course, and if the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year really feels as good as he says he feels, the rest of the league had better watch out.

Soto has upward mobility from this spot, but serves as a good anchor at the bottom of the order. Furthermore, putting Soriano or Fontenot in that slot would negate the value of their speed, so Soto will likely stay there for much of the season.