No matter which round Tim Tebow is drafted in, some team is going to take him too high and pay him far too much money.
Any round and any amount of money are inappropriate for this quarterback because, simply put, he will not produce for that franchise.
Why can't he be a positive contributor early in his career? He is a fierce competitor, hard worker, and exceptional athlete. Tebow wins football games, the bottom line for any team. And to top it all off, he has a new throwing motion which is sure to either impress or appease all who see it.
But none of this is going to matter.
Tebow will, most likely, get some game time early in his NFL career. Due to an injury, poor performances, or just the need of the organization (and the fans) to see what he can do, Tebow will play a reasonable amount during his first and second years. He will be somewhat rushed, albeit with limited expectations.
This is not to say that he will be ill-prepared. Whichever team drafts him will immediately start tweaking and improving his passing mechanics from his feet up. He will get plenty of practice reps, becoming comfortable taking snaps under center, and reading NFL defenses.
However, the reps that count will be played in games, and these games will be played at a speed that will fluster Tebow and all of his upgraded fundamentals. When situations get hairy for the young quarterback (a defensive end in his face or he misses a read), his instincts are going to kick in. Usually this would be great. The problem is "usually" for Tebow means "playing for the Florida Gators."
College football is not the NFL. Tim Tebow's undesirable traits as an NFL quarterback are fairly numerous and, at this point, unbelievably well-known. In his first two-years in the league, a lot of these shortcomings will be on display, and we have seen this countless times before.
Think back to Brett Favre's first year in the league playing with Atlanta. Think back to Brett Favre's first pass ever, which was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Tebow's situation has a slim chance of being this extreme but a great chance of being eerily similar.
As Favre's short relationship with his first team was coupled by inexperience and bad luck, Tebow's will be paired with an unpolished skill-set and more hype than Mike Tyson fighting Evander Holyfield's mother.
Tebow will play his time, muck it up, and everyone in his organization will begin pointing the finger at who wanted to draft this media-inflated flop. It will become a top priority for the team to distance itself from this player before he really goes south and becomes worthless. So Tebow is traded for a fourth or fiftth round pick, and the team moves on.
So does the player.
Like Jesus raising Lazarus, we will all witness the rejuvenation of Tim Tebow's (almost) failed professional career.
His new team will not have the burden of scrutiny brought about by the hype-machine. Without the eyes of the media constantly peering, and without the pressure of being a draft pick, this organization will be able to develop Tebow in peace.
Most importantly, the team will have the luxury of riding out any bumps in the road without everyone immediately branding him a dud and looking for their axe.
Given this fresh breath and his new understanding of the professional game, Tebow will prepare in a Peyton-esque manner. Tirelessly honing his craft and becoming as perfect in each of its facets as he can. The combination of this work ethic with his talent and a burning desire to prove so many people wrong will result in greatness.
Teams are not going to regret passing on Tim Tebow in the draft. They will regret not acquiring him in 2012. They will regret not seeing his potential after he becomes a so-called "bust."
They will regret missing out on a hastily traded emerging superstar.