At this point it looks like Vegas has Frank Mir at a -175 favorite. I think Mir is a heavier favorite, maybe -200 or -225.
I think Frank's biggest weakness is his take down defense and his ability to maintain a favorable position once on the ground. These weaknesses were only exposed by Brock Lesnar, I will spare you my comments on his size and athletic abilities. Mir has shown great stand-up in his last few fights and his submissions are the best in the heavyweight division right now. Shane Carwin has a tough fight on his hands. Other than Gabriel Gonzaga he has yet to fight a top level fighter. Gonzaga is no slouch, but right now he's not even in the hunt for a crack at the belt. Personally I think Carwin would have an easier fight against Lesnar than he does Mir. I think Mir's stand-up and submissions are much better than Lesnar's and he would be more evenly matched against Brock.
Reasons for a Frank Mir win:
The guy is more determined to win and fight Lesnar than Obama is to get healthcare reform passed.
Mir has better standup and submissions
Mir put on serious size and strength, which would have previously been his weakness
Carwin has yet to see anyone with Mir's arsenal of weapons
Reasons for a Carwin win:
The guy hits harder than Ivan Drago
He's a great wrestler which could prove tough for Mir to overcome
My money is on Mir
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