MLB Trade Speculator: Rich Harden Traded to Cubs

The Good: Patterson can beat you in many ways offensively. He can hit for average, draw a decent amount of walks, steal a base at the right opportunity, and he surprises many with the amount of juice in his bat. His best tool is his speed, but he has no major weaknesses at the plate or on the basepaths.

The Bad: Patterson's defense has always been a concern, and he was moved to the outfield because of his defensive shortcomings as much as he was moved there in order to increase his versatility. He still struggles against good left-handers.

"No major weaknesses," although there really aren't many absolute strengths, either. Entering the 2007 season, Patterson just missed making Baseball Prospectus' top-100 prospects list, joining notables Dustin Pedroia and Alexi Casilla, among others.

Overall, Patterson's best-case scenario would be to become Brian Roberts, with Chris Burke being on the low end of the spectrum.  Finally, checking in with catcher Josh Donaldson, we see a 22-year-old catcher who hasn't done anything particularly special since being drafted in the second round in 2007. While his strikeout rate has dropped during his promotion to A-ball, his walk rate has also taken a hit.

Additionally, the power looks worse, although only slightly less impressive. Drawing a conclusion on a catcher of this age is nearly impossible, and surely a wasteful thing to do. That is, consider the strides Victor Martinez took between his 22nd and 23rd birthdays, while jumping from High-A ball to AA. A lot can click for a hitter in his early years.

Checking in with Kevin Goldstein—who rated Donaldson as the Cubs' fifth-best prospect, ahead of both Gallagher and Patterson, and a three-star talent—reveals the following:

Year In Review: The offense-oriented catcher had a monster debut, and would have led the Northwest League in both slugging and on-base percentage if he'd gotten enough plate appearances to qualify.

The Good: Donaldson is an on-base machine who had more walks than strikeouts in 2007 while also showcasing solid hitting skills and average to slightly-above power. He's a good athlete for a catcher, and his arm rates as above average.

The Bad: Much of Donaldson's future projection relies on his ability to stay behind the plate. While Donaldson has the potential to become an average defender, he's only been catching for two years and is a well below-average backstop beyond that throwing arm.

Nothing overly impressive, granted there isn't a lot of information from which to draw a conclusion. What should stick out for those who read Moneyball, and felt as though they had somewhat of an understanding of Billy Beane, is that both Murton and Donaldson fit into the 'patient hitter' mold.

Sickels is equally as impressed with Donaldson and his professional debut, rating him as a B-level prospect, and the sixth-best prospect in the Cubs' system. I imagine one would be hard-pressed to find many catching prospects rated higher then Donaldson, so this is quite the compliment.

Granted, I would assume there are a few (namely Maximiliano Ramirez of the Rangers) who have jumped Donaldson this season.

Overall, I have to give this one to the Cubs. They sent away only one piece that had a legitimate shot at being a part of their future (Gallagher), while sending away a major disappointment (Murton), and two unknown variables who are blocked (Patterson-DeRosa/Cedeno and Donaldson-Soto).

Furthermore, with the haul the Indians got for Sabathia, it is hard to believe this is the best trade that was out there for Harden. Interestingly, the A's also appear to be raising their white flag relatively early.

That is, sitting only six games behind and having a vastly superior Pythagorean record (for runs scored/allowed, EQR/EQRA, and aEGR/aEQRA) the A's should be actually doing better then they are, and the Angels should be doing worse.

Furthermore, I'd be surprised if Gallagher turned out to be a better pitcher than any of the Athletics' current top pitching prospects. If that is true, the A's essentially traded Harden for Patterson and some essential spare parts. Albeit, they are parts Beane may be able to flip down the road. 

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