2010 MLB Predictions: NL West Rotation Rankings
The NL West is the home of the National League's defending two-time Cy Young Award winner.
The division lost one of its marquee aces with the departure of Jake Peavy, but the NL West is still loaded with young pitchers.
The NL West possesses aces which are the top of the game despite being in a division that captures little media attention in comparison to the rest of the league.
That being said, the National League West in recent years has been decided by strong pitching down the stretch and that will unlikely change in 2010.
How the pitching rotations rank could ultimately determine the division's final standings. We'll find out if that prediction holds water come the fall, but for now, here is how the NL West rotations stack up.
5. San Diego Padres
Out goes Jake Peavy, up rises right-hander Chris Young to the status of staff ace.
Young comes off two injury-shortened seasons that have limited him to a combined 32 starts after tossing an impressive 3.12 ERA in 30 starts in 2007.
That kind of production will be demanded of Young if the Padres hope to have any shot at competing in the division.
The Padres added Jon Garland to hold down the No. 2 spot in the rotation.
Garland had a strong finish with the Dodgers after the Diamondbacks traded him away midseason. The 30-year-old right-hander is now on his third NL West team in less than one year.
Young right-hander Mat Latos, 21, made 10 starts in his debut season of 2009. Latos showed glimpses of promise last season. Now the Padres hope he can take bigger strides in 2010.
Kevin Correia and Clayton Richard will fill out the back two spots of the rotation, but concerns about consistency and the ability to chew innings could expose the Padres rotation.
4. Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa are two live arms who combined for 31 wins in 2009 after posting career seasons. The Rockies will trust that the two seasons were no flukes and lean on the two hurlers to repeat their performances.
The unspectacular yet steady Aaron Cook fills out the top three spots. Cook regressed a bit in 2009 after a career season in 2008. If he can recapture his 2008 form, the Rockies could find themselves back in the postseason.
Left-hander Jeff Francis went from 17-9 in 2008 to 4-10 in 2009...quite a swing to say the least. The Rockies better hope Francis can regain production even the average of those two seasons, or the Rockies depth takes a significant hit.
Jason Hammel went 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 2009. Those numbers are as solid as one is going find for a fifth starter. The Rockies hope he will duplicate them.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
This was a tough choice between the Dodgers and Rockies, but I slide the Dodgers in the third spot simply out of belief that there is a slightly more consistency and depth in the rotation.
They retain Vincente Padilla, who was very sharp coming over to the Dodgers midway through the 2009 season, but the right-hander teeters on the line of above-average and dumpster fire. Losing Randy Wolf decreases depth in the rotation, but Padilla can offer comparable numbers in the National League.
Chad Billingsley, the staff's ace, was very strong in the first half of 2009 before backsliding to a 5.00-plus ERA in the second half. If the Dodgers expect to get back to the postseason, they need Billingsley at his first half strength all season long.
Clayton Kershaw posted a very sharp 2.79 ERA in 2009, but he must do a better job of pitching well deeper into games. The ERA was good but 16 decisions in 30 starts and only 171 innings is not a sustainable trend for a No. 2 of the staff.
Hiroki Kuroda is a sturdy pitcher who can comfortably fill the fourth spot in the rotation. He doesn't "wow" on stuff, but his ability to mix it up with hitters and keep his ERA in the mid-3.00 range, good enough for the NL West.
The Dodgers mixed and matched the fifth spot last year, but this year's inside track for the last spot in the rotation appears headed for James McDonald.
McDonald, 24, made four starts in 45 appearances last year but should ascend to the back of the rotation full-time in 2010.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
The success of the Diamondbacks rotation and the club's season as a whole will rest on the rehabilitation of Brandon Webb.
Dan Haren is now the ace of the staff and excellent production can only be anticipated from him.
However, Webb's return from last August's shoulder surgery is a tenuous process to say the least right now. The D'backs spot on this list is wholly contingent on Webb returning early in they ear and pitching to success.
The D'backs brought over Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in the three-team offseason trade with the Tigers and Yankees. Jackson was an All-Star in the first half of the 2009 season and his hard fastball and live breaking ball should translate well to the National League.
Billy Buckner and Kennedy will compete for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Regardless of how they fall, the duo will hold the back two spots for the Diamondbacks.
Kennedy, a former hot prospect for the Yankees, has battled injuries over the last two seasons, but a change of scenery and decreased spotlight could serve him well.
1. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are as good of a 1-2 punch as anywhere in the National League or MLB.
Lincecum and Cain will take the Giants to a certain amount of wins, but it will be on the shoulders of Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez and top prospect, 20-year-old southpaw Madison Bumgarner, to take the staff the rest of the way.
Giants fans know what they are getting out of their top two guys, but it will be on Barry Zito to serve as the staff's barometer. If he can continue to move forward after an embarrassing 2008 season, the Giants may avoid a late swoon like the club endured last season.
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