The View from Landsdowne Street: Grading the Boston Red Sox Minor League System

Michael Lemaire by Senior Analyst Written on July 08, 2008
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For the sake of this argument, I will not be including Clay Buchholz or Brandon Moss in my grading system, and I will be including Justin Masterson since he has not played as much in the major leagues.

Since Theo Epstein became general manager of the Boston Red Sox, the team has shown a strong interest in revamping their farm system rather than renting players at the all-star break.

The increased important Epstein and his staff have placed on the MLB draft has paid dividends for Boston, which now finds itself with a lot of options and gap-fillers from within the system.

Gone are the days of top prospects with mediocre ceilings like Wilton Veras and Brian Rose. Under Epstein, they have been replaced by players like Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, and Lars Anderson.

Prospects with a lot of potential and possible difference-makers down the road.

Here is a look at each position, and how the Red Sox have stocked them individually.

Catcher:

One would have to go all the way down to No. 17 on soxprospects.com before they find the highest rated catcher in the Red Sox system. Luis Exposito has the highest ceiling of the group, but his hitting tools are still very raw, and he is at least four years away from making the club.

The Red Sox love his catching instincts and think his howitzer arm and great handling of the pitching staff will be important to how he fits with the parent club down the road.

In 49 games with Low-A Greenville, Exposito was hitting .283/.328/.836 with 11 home runs before being called up to Lancaster. He needs to improve his plate discipline as he has only walked 12 times all season.

The prospect closest to a call-up is AA-Portland catcher Mark Wagner. The UC-Irvine product tore it up in Lancaster last season and earned a trip this season to Portland.

A strong defensive catcher with middling power and a long swing, Wagner's future remains bright, but he hasn't figured out AA pitching yet. He is hitting just .243/.325/.740 with eight home runs. But the Red Sox still like his potential, but with the way Varitek is hitting the ball, Boston may need him sooner than he is ready.

Dusty Brown is the catcher for AAA-Pawtucket, and although he is having a good season in R.I. for the minor league Red Sox, he is already 26 years old, and he most likely has already peaked on potential. He can be an effective stopgap should someone get hurt, but his potential as a starter is limited.

George Kottaras is another player with Pawtucket and is a year younger than Brown. He has a lot of power and can be an effective hitter at the major league level. But he doesn't project well as a catcher and could move positions.

They drafted Tim Federowicz out of North Carolina in the past draft, and although he lacks power, he has all the other intangibles needed to have a prosperous career behind the plate. He will start with the Lowell Spinners.

Grade: C+

First Base:

A position that the Red Sox have drastically improved since the days of Brian Daubach, first base still leaves a lot to be desired for the organization.

Any conversation though has to start with Lars Anderson. Drafted in the 18th round in 2006, Anderson is now just 20 years old, but he has the highest ceiling of any other first baseman prospect in the system. He is an extremely tall and long player with prodigious power, but his best attribute may be his ability to hit the ball the other way.

After a great season with Greenville last season, Anderson has ridden that momentum to an even better season with Lancaster. In almost 300 at-bats, Anderson is hitting .317/.411/.916 with 11 home runs. He strikes out often but makes up for it with a lot of walks and a high OBP.

Although he still a few years away, the Red Sox aren't letting him go anywhere.

Behind Anderson, there is Chris Carter, the player the Red Sox received in return for Wily Mo Pena. But due to his atrocious defense at first, the Red Sox seem devoted to turning him into an outfielder now.

The next best option is either Aaron Bates or Chad Spann.

Spann is the AAA first baseman, and although he has a track record of being on a gradual learning curve, he has really struggled against AAA pitching, hitting under .200.

He is only 24, so there is a chance he can still recoup some of his hitting ability and turn into a solid first baseman, but he probably isn't much better than a utility player in the Majors.

Bates is playing for AA-Portland right now after a monster season with Lancaster last season in which he hit 24 home runs. At 6'-foot-4 and 230 lbs., Bates hits some really long baseballs, and he draws a lot of walks. But his swing has some hitches and can be long, which he will need to fix if he plans on progressing.

He is the player who most reminds me of Daubach in his ceiling and potential.

Grade: C-

Middle Infield:

Jed Lowrie is the best of a mess of players with potential that the Red Sox have at second base and shortstop.

Lowrie has already played some with Boston and performed admirably in his short stint there. People in Boston would love to see him come up and replace Julio Lugo as the starting shortstop right now, but the club seems intent on leaving him down for seasoning until the roster expands.

He reminds me a lot of David Eckstein but has a much more fluid swing.

Behind Lowrie, the Red Sox have a glut of talented players who are long on potential and short on experience.

The group of Oscar Tejeda (18), Argenis Diaz (21), Michael Almanzar (17), and Yamaico Navarro (20) were all signed as international free agents in the past two years and now are littered through out the organization.

Diaz is the most advanced of the four.  He plays for Lancaster, and although he struggles with the bat, he has everyone in the Red Sox organization convinced that defensively he could be among the best shortstops in baseball right now.

Tejeda is probably the player with the highest ceiling. Being only 18, there is obviously time the Red Sox can wait out before they call upon the youngster, but his tools are second to none among middle infielders and has impressed with his mature approach to hitting. Must improve plate discipline a lot before he progresses.

Aside from that, Pawtucket has a journeyman minor leaguer Joe Thurston, who was once the Dodgers minor league player of the year twice, and has been bouncing around AAA since 2003. Now at 28, he still continues to impress with the bat, and if Cora leaves, Thurston should be an adequate replacement.

The Sox also spent their first round pick this year on shortstop Casey Kelley, but he may end up signing with Tennessee and playing football and baseball.

Grade: B-

Third Base:

The Red Sox are very low on talent at the hot corner. The two names that appear on everyone's list of third basemen within the organization are Michael Almanzar, who is 17 and still very, let me repeat, very raw. The other is Will Middlebrooks, the player the Red Sox drafted in the fifth round last season.

Middlebrooks is the better of the two. He is only 19 years old but has just about every trait you could want out of your third baseman. He has a cannon for an arm, great athleticism, and a very high baseball IQ.

Offensively, the team seems convinced that Middlebrooks can be a 30 home run player and anchor the middle of their order down the road. So far, in his first season now with the Lowell Spinners in Low-A, obviously a line like .180/.227/.457 is very bad but remember that Middlebrooks is just 19.

He needs to improve his plate discipline and iron out his swing, but he comes from good baseball coaching and has already shown coaches he is a quick and devoted learner. He won't be expected in Fenway until at least 2012, so it will be a wait and see approach with him.

Almanzar is a player from their new Dominican baseball academy, and he really has the potential to be a superstar in the mold of Hanley Ramirez, or he could bust out like so many others have before him.

He stands 6-foot-3 and weighs close to 200 lbs., and so his size translates to plus potential in regards to power. He also has a cannon for an arm, and although he is rough around the edges defensively, he fields the ball fluidly and can make some ridiculous plays.

He will take a lot of grooming, but he has baseball pedigree (His father is Carlos Almanzar) and now he has been placed in the Red Sox system where he can begin to learn on a steeper curve. Don't expect him anytime soon, but until then, salivate over his numbers in the Gulf Coast League.

.322/.375/.782

Grade: D

Outfield:

This is where the Red Sox have really shined in their development methods and their talent evaluation. In fact, if you include Chris Carter, five of the top 20 prospects in the Red Sox system are outfielders.

Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish are neck and neck as the best prospects to roam the greener pastures.

Reddick plays for high-A Lancaster after starting the season red hot in Greenville. What's the most exciting is that Reddick has been even better since getting called up to Lancaster. He is hitting .346/.374/.979, with 15 home runs and a .605 slugging percentage.

He is probably best suited as a corner outfielder if/when he makes his first appearance in Fenway thanks to his strong  and accurate throwing arm, and his lanky frame which he will try to pack muscle onto in the off-season.

At only 20 years of age, Kalish is like the rest of the prospects his age...raw. He dedicated last season in Lowell to being taught everything he needed to know, and his athleticism helped him catch on quick.

He looks like he should be playing running back for a D-1 college team right now the way he is built, but instead he uses his plus speed and strong arm to survive in the minor league outfields. He is an above-average defensive outfielder, but where he could become a star is at the plate.

For someone as strong as him, Kalish does not have a lot of power. He can hit home runs.  He just doesn't do it often.

Instead he uses an advanced approach at the plate and a line-drive swing to put himself on the base paths. His numbers in Greenville are pedestrian (.280/.363/.727), but he is still learning, and his curve is steep.

Behind those two players they all sort of fall in a heap, with no one seperating themselves as an uber-talent: Che-Hsuan Lin, Jason Place, and Chris Carter are the other outfielders among the best.

They are followed by a motley crue of Bubba Bell, Zach Daeges, and Reid Engel.

Lin reminds many of Ichiro with his speed and grace in the outfield. He is meant to be a centerfielder, and if he develops as a hitter, he could be a dangerous weapon at the top of the lineup.

Place is a five-tool talent who has yet to put it all together yet. He has a lot of power and a rocket arm in the outfield. He looks better suited for a corner outfield position but the Red Sox say they will keep him in center. He strikes out a lot, but with added experience could become a stud.

Carter is the most advanced of the outfielders. He hits a lot of home runs and has an advanced approach at the plate. The only worry is that he is new to the outfield and seems to be a butcher defensively wherever he plays. Also, some fear he may have already hit his ceiling.

Grade: A-

Starting Pitching:

Even without Justin Masterson included in this discussion, the Red Sox have a lot of options for their future in the rotation.

With Masterson in the discussion, they have a deep talent pool to choose from.

Masterson has now shown what he can do on a major league level, and while he is being used out of the bullpen now, the long term solution will be that Masterson remains a starter down the road.

Not far behind Masterson is Michael Bowden. Bowden was drafted in the first round in 2005 straight out of high school, and the big right-hander has not disappointed since joining the ranks of the professionals.

With command of three plus major league pitches, a mid 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a circle change-up that drops off the table, Bowden could be pitching in the big leagues right now, but there is no need to rush him as he is only 21.

He is an all-star again this year and has probably been the most dominant pitcher in the Eastern League thus far. He is 8-4 with a 2.36 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.00. He also has struck out 93 batters in 99 innings, while walking only 22 and holding opponents to a .188 BAA.

This control is what will make him an effective major league pitcher because he can pound the strike zone in order to set hitters up for that devastating change up.

Expect to see him in Boston for a little while once the roster expands.

Behind Bowden the drop off is only marginal. Kris Johnson, their first round pick in 2006, and Brian Price, a supplemental pick this year, are both on their way to making impacts in the major leagues.

Johnson pitches for Portland and has settled in nicely after a rocky 2007. He is 7-4 with a 3.47 ERA, but the only problem seems to be that he is still struggling with his control and still feels lingering effects from Tommy John surgery in college.

Price has a small sample size for his pitching statistics, but his raw stuff makes him a good bet to eventually make it up I-95 to Boston. He has yet to develop an effective third pitch, but a mid 90's fastball and low 80's slider are a good start to any pitch repertoire. He was in Rice's bullpen this past year, but the Sox have plans to start him.

Behind those prospects the cupboard still is not bare. Devern Hansack and David Pauley are both capable spot starters who can give the Red Sox innings when players on injured.

The two real x-factors are Charlie Zink and Felix Doubront.

Zink is in Pawtucket and has made his name with the team as a knuckleballer. In the offseason, he works with Tim Wakefield, and after a brutal 2007 campaign in Pawtucket, he has come back this year and been the best pitcher on the team.

His numbers are 9-2, 2.42 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a .199 BAA. He has learned how to place his knuckleball so it is becoming unhittable.

Doubront is a 20-year-old international signee. A soft thrower, Doubront mixes a myriad of pitches into his arsenal to keep hitters off-balanced. After suffering through injuries and an awful season last year, he has really improved this season with Greenville and could make the rotation someday.

Grade: A-

 

Relief Pitching:

This is much tougher to evaluate because starters become relievers and vice versa all the time in the minor leagues. But the one player whose future role with the team is not in doubt is Daniel Bard.

Bard was the team's first round draft pick last year out of North Carolina where he was a starter. But with his violent arm action and style of pitching, he is better suited for the bullpen and possibly even the closer role.

His fastball routinely touches 98 on the radar gun and mixes in a still-developing curveball and change up. The only real problem in the foreseeable future is his control. He struggled with his location in 2007, and he paid the price with a rough season in Lancaster.

Once he was sent back to Greenville he was able to change his arm angle, drop it down a little, and he has picked up life on his fastball and regained confidence in his pitches.

The next man down is another enormous lefty named Hunter Jones. Jones really burst onto the scene earlier this year with ridiculous numbers with Portland where he had a 1.18 ERA.

He is still working on his pitches that he feels comfortable throwing and seems to add a new pitch everyday and drop a different pitch.

Now with Pawtucket, he has been solid but not spectacular. He is only 24 and needs a lot of refining, but he seems destined to be a part of the Red Sox or some other teams bullpen.

Grade: B

 

 

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written on July 08, 2008 Rankings/List

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