Davis’ Departure Ushers In an Exciting Future For The Golden State Warriors

Davis shot 6.4 threes per game (#1 among point guards) at a percentage of 33% last season (27th among point guards). Add to that a true shooting percentage of 52.3%, which ranks him 33rd among point guards. So when a player who has the ball in his hands most (22.2% of the Warriors possessions) is a less efficient scorer than Allen Iverson, a lot of possessions are wasted.

It just so happens that Chris Paul has similar possession ratios as Davis, so I’ll take a look at those for the sake of comparison. Paul has the ball in his hands a lot as well (21.8% of the team’s possessions). And they both commit turnovers in about 12% of the possessions they have the ball. But Paul also takes half as many three pointers per game as Davis (3 per game) and has a higher true shooting percentage (57.6).

So what does that mean for their comparative effectiveness as point guards?

Davis’ tendency to shoot the ball at a low percentage, means he burns a lot of his team’s possessions. John Hollinger’s assist ratio is one way to illustrate that. Assist ratio is the percentage of a player’s possessions that end in an assist. Davis has an assist ratio of 24.3%, which ranks 45th in the league among point guards). Paul has an assist ratio of 35.7%, which ranks 9th. 

Tony Parker actually ranks below Davis in assist ratio, but he had a field goal percentage of 49% and a true shooting percentage of 54.2%. But when you’re playing with Tim Duncan, there’s a larger margin for error – Parker only needs to knock down outside shots.

Inefficient point guard play and poor rebounding don’t mix

A small team that likes to run cannot afford both inefficient play from their point guard and poor rebounding. Fast breaks are initiated by defense and rebounding. If the team is not able to rebound well enough to get up and down the court and the guy with the ball in his hands most often is squandering possessions, it’s difficult to win games.

Consider the effect that has on the Warriors as a team -- it means that the person most responsible for getting the team into the offense and setting up teammates for scoring opportunities is actually disrupting the team’s rhythm. Younger players Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins were among the most efficient starters in the league at their respective positions. So while Baron is shooting the ball at a low percentage, the team loses the opportunity to get the ball to a more efficient scorer.

Decision making is as important as talent

The problem we see here with Davis is simply a matter of decision-making. There’s no doubt that he’s a very talented player.  But even if we blame Nelson’s scheme for Davis’ shooting tendencies, it does not negate the fact that he was not able to get the ball to the team’s more efficient scorers. But as big as a boost he gave the team, at times he clearly hurt them.

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