Blue and Gold Illustrated reports that Notre Dame Head Coach Charlie Weis is "privately projecting anywhere from nine to 12 victories this year."
I could spend the whole article analyzing Notre Dame's schedule, but let's cut to the chase. Notre Dame is coming off a 3-9 season. Even if Jimmy Claussen is healthy, even if the O-Line improves, and even if what went wrong last year (everything) is improved, this is not a 9-12 win season.
It's a seven win team. At best.
I'm sure Notre Dame homers will cry foul, but they should hope for seven. Because less than that will heat up Weis' seat big time.
Notre Dame has never won more than 10 games since 1993 (11), which was under Lou Holtz (Coincidentally, it was the last season Notre Dame won a bowl game).
Even with a Senior laden team in 2006 that included Brady Quinn, Jeff Samardzija, Tom Zbikowski, and Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame won "only" 10 games.
So to predict 9-12 wins coming off the train-wreck that was last season takes a lot of guts.
It's too bad it's not realistic.
Listen, I have no problem with a coach predicting a near perfect season for his team at athletic banquets, what the heck is he supposed to say? They are going to lose nine again? The boosters need to be kept happy.
But the fact of the matter is, Irish fans shouldn't get their hopes up. They do play some cupcakes (San Diego State, North Carolina, Stanford, Washington, and Navy) but don't expect this team to reach a New Year's Day bowl game.
If the Irish win seven or even eight games, they should be very happy with their season. Just don't expect them to enter the L.A. Coliseum on November 29th with a 11-0 record.
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3 months ago
Wow, I don't think of North Carolina as a cupcake this year...in fact, they could be an ACC champion contender. I like Butch Davis a lot.
What Weis is doing is being a cheerleader...you are right, you have to keep the boosters happy. It's always good to be positive, especially coming off of one of the worst starts in school history last year.
Nine to twelve wins isn't very realistic, but it's a great goal! I think most Irish fans would be happy to have a winning season and even a nice bowl this year. What I would be interested in knowing is that if they do win 8 or 9 games, will it be a result of drastic improvement, or a soft schedule?
In either case, confidence is a major boost for a young team, so maybe it doesn't matter?
from 3 months ago
I think UNC is a year away from being a real contender.
If ND does win 8-9 games I'll be very surprised. And let's face it, ND always has a soft schedule. The wonders of being an independent.
3 months ago
I think saying Notre Dame always has a weak schedule is a gross over-statement. The truth is quite to the contrary. Check Sagarin's rankings over the last few years and you'll see this is true. This coming season is very much the exception.
I concur that North Carolina won't be a cupcake this year. They have quite a bit of talent, albeit young and without significant depth at many positions. I believe their biggest problem will be dealing with any success they have. They haven't had to play with a target on their back in the past.
There are a lot of problems for Notre Dame in 2007 that won't be around in 2008. I don't think an eight win season is out of the question for the Irish in 2008. They will have trouble stopping the run but if they can get teams in long down and distances, they are built to lock up one-on-one in the secondary and pressure the passer. On offense, they simply need to run the ball 60-65% of the time. They have the horses to do it, but it is on offensive coordinator Michael Haywood to make it happen. With his background coaching running backs and being involved in offenses dedicated to a successful running game, the odds are good he will commit to a potent rushing attack.
I think the Irish will struggle against Pittsburgh and Michigan State, dropping both. I think beating USC is out of the question. And I think they will drop one other they shouldn't because they have youth and inexperience.
Getting more than eight wins would be a remarkable turnaround for any team and just doesn't happen that often. Even getting to eight would be a significant accomplishment.
3 months ago
I wouldn't call last year's schedule soft...it was ranked #6! This year it's ranked #68. But I agree, 8-9 wins is a bit of a stretch. Baby steps.
3 months ago
Oh boy. Another doozy from Weis. This is a bad idea.
First off, let's just right away throw out 12 or 11 wins, this isn't a team that will compete for a National title or make a BCS game, no matter how doable their schedule is.
9-10 is a possibility, albeit is a small one, but here's why this is not smart. Consider you've got a team comprised of nearly all of the same players that just endured the most humliating season in all of Notre Dame history. Rather than being able to play loose and improve steadily through the year, let's CRUSH them out of the gate with the unrealistic BCS expectations. As soon as Dame drops a game to two, they've essentially "underachieved" - this is when efforts start to drop off some.
I would have said Dame could have won 7-8 this year, but with this I think 5-6 or much more likely.
3 months ago
"Listen, I have no problem with a coach predicting a near perfect season for his team at athletic banquets, what the heck is he supposed to say? They are going to lose nine again? The boosters need to be kept happy."
Yeah but by specifically calling for 9-12 wins he's talking about one of the, if the not biggest, turn-arounds in NCAA history. Let's remember, he's not a new guy stepping in, he's the one who produced 3 wins so a historic reversal immediately after his historic failure isn't cheerleading, it's talking out your a++.
3 months ago
The largest turnaround in NCAA history was Jones taking a 0-11 Hawaii team to 9 wins the following year. This is where Charlie is getting his 12 wins which is very possible. He is such a great coach and a kind person and is due for some good luck. He doesn't suck as bad as everyone thinks. God bless Charlie Weis.
3 months ago
3 wins - worst season in ND history - to 11 or 12 and a BCS game would be the largest turn-around in NCAA history, and that's not even really up for discussion.
2 months ago
I think... yea Navy beat Notre Dame last year. They lost Paul Johnson but they return some good pieces on offense, which will virtually be the same, and their defense was horrible last year so who cares if its still bad. Oh and Notre Dame does not always have an easy schedule. Thats ridiculous. USC and Michigan every year. Plus they schedule a ton of BCS schools years in advance when you don't know if Syracuse, Washington, Stanford, North Carolina will be good or not in 2008. The only non-BCS team is San Diego State and how many BCS schools have only one non-BCS team on the schedule. In fact the way Notre Dame became famous and the "Yankees" of college football is they played everyone, everywhere, who was good. They used to play Army, Navy, USC, Michigan, etc. when all those teams were basically stacked.
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