10 Questions Facing the Washington Nationals as Spring Training Begins

For two seasons, the Washington Nationals have been the worst team in baseball and have come close to matching the 1962 Mets for baseball’s all-time futility.

Things began to change last spring when then general manager Jim Bowden was forced out and replaced by current GM Mike Rizzo. In July, manager Manny Acta was fired in favor of Jim Riggleman.

Adam Dunn became the team’s first quality free agent signing two winters ago. This past off season, the Nationals added Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang and Matt Capps.

Though the foundation has been laid for a solid major league team, questions still remain.

The following are the top 10 questions facing the Washington Nationals for 2010.

Can the Washington Nationals Stay Healthy in 2010?

No team has lost more players and more time to the disabled list than the Washington Nationals over the past four seasons.

It all started when pitcher Brian Lawrence was lost for the season on the first day of spring training in 2006 and continued through last season when prized rookie Jordan Zimmermann was lost for 12-18 months with Tommy John Surgery.

In between, Nick Johnson, Junior Spivey, Ryan Zimmermann, Jose Guillen, Austin Kearns, Ryan Church, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Johnny Estrada, Paul LoDuca, Dmitri Young, Jesus Flores, Cristian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, Matt Chico, Shawn Hill, John Patterson, and Chad Cordero were just some of the team’s most prominent players to miss significant time.

And now promising rookie and first-round pick Ross Detwiler underwent hip surgery and will miss up to three months.

For the Nationals to reach the magical (and for them mythical) .500 mark, all of the team’s important players must remain healthy.

Is the Revamped Bullpen Strong Enough to Protect the Starters?

In 2005, the Washington Nationals had one of baseball’s best bullpens and it helped guide the team to 81 wins.

Last season, the bullpen blew 43 percent of their save chances and just three of the 17 relief pitchers ended the season with an ERA under 4.00.

This year, Matt Capps, Brian Bruney, and Tyler Walker will likely join holdovers Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett and Jason Bergman to form a very dependable bullpen. Not great, but dependable.

Long Relievers:
Jason Bergman (2-4, 4.50)
Tyler Clippard (4-2, 2.69)

Lefty Specialist:
Sean Burnett (2-3, 3.12)

7th Inning:
Tyler Walker (2-1, 3.06)

8th Inning:
Brian Bruney (5-0, 3.92)

9th Inning:
Matt Capps (4-8, 5.80, 27 saves)

Will Elijah Dukes Ever Reach His Potential?

Elijah Dukes has the potential to carry the Washington Nationals on his back. Dukes can become the cog that drives the offense. Dukes can lead the Nationals to the Promised Land.

Or he can become just the latest five-tool player to miss out on glory and riches.

Whatever happens, this is the year that we find out.

We all feel bad about the difficulties Dukes has faced throughout his life but the time has come for him to either get past them or succumb to them. He has to stay healthy and he has to produce.

Dukes’ 162-game average with Washington is .256-19-88 with 14 steals and a .359 on-base percentage. That’s certainly a decent start, but he could be so much better.

Every scout who has seen him play knows what he is capable of: a .300 batting average, 30 home runs, 100 runs batted in, and 30 steals.

How would this middle-of-the-lineup work for the Nationals this season?

3B—Ryan Zimmerman (.295-35-105)
1B—Adam Dunn (.265-40-100)
RF—Elijah Dukes (.285-27-85)
LF—Josh Willingham (.260-25-75)

That’s the core of a winning team.

This is Dukes’ last chance with the Nationals. He’ll be 26 this June and is too old to be considered a prospect any longer. If he succeeds in 2010, his background will be forgotten.

2010 will be the year of Elijah Dukes, not Stephen Strasburg.

Can the Nationals Remain Competitive Until the Saviors Arrive in June?

Three of the Nationals’ best pitchers—perhaps the three best—will begin the season in the minor leagues.

Chien-Ming Wang should be healthy by June.

Drew Storen should be ready to take over a setup role in the bullpen by June.

And Stephen Strasburg will become the savior of the franchise (as opposed to being its face) by June.

In his two full injury-free seasons with the Yankees, Wang averaged 19-6, 3.67, 9.3/2.4/3.9. His doctor believes there is an 80 percent chance that Wang will be fully recovered when he takes the mound this June.

In his first year of professional ball, Drew Storen went 2-1, 1.95, 5.1/1.9/11.9. And when he faced baseball’s very best prospects in last season’s Arizona Fall League, he did even better, going 2-0, 0.66, 10.1/2.3/10.1.

He will make an already good bullpen even better.

Strasburg had one rough outing in the Arizona Fall League but otherwise dominated in both the AFL and the Florida Instructional League. Subtract that one start and he allowed 13 hits in 21 innings, striking out 25 while walking just three. He had an ERA of 1.28 and a .219 batting average-against.

If Scott Olsen, J.D. Martin, Matt Chico, Craig Stammen, and the rest of the Plan-B starters can keep the Nationals respectable through April and May, the “big boys” and “new boys” should take the team to another level come June.

Can the Nationals Re-sign Adam Dunn to a Long-term Deal?

Without Adam Dunn in the middle of the lineup, the Nationals’ offense will not be strong enough to bail the team’s young pitchers out of their mistake-prone outings.

When Nick Johnson was the team’s cleanup hitter, pitchers weren’t afraid of losing the game on one pitch. But they are with Dunn batting fourth.

Countless eyes are watching the Nationals this year. After two seasons of being the league’s laughing stock, things are finally beginning to change. Dunn and Josh Willingham were added two winters ago. Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang came-a-calling this past off season.

Both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Store were drafted—and signed—last summer.

That’s all good stuff.

But bringing in talented players is only half the battle. Keeping them is just as important.

Dunn, who has averaged .252-41-101 since 2004, has publicly said he wants to remain with the Nationals and the Nationals have publicly said that signing Dunn to a long-term deal is of paramount importance to the team.

But Dunn also said he doesn’t want to negotiate during the season.

If a deal doesn’t get done before the end of spring training, pressure will build to move Dunn before the August 31st trade deadline. To have to trade him, or lose him to free agency would be a giant step backwards for the Nationals, from both a talent and a public relations perspective.

A deal needs to get done now.

Is Jesus Flores Still a Viable Catcher and Potental All-Star?

When the Nationals announced they had acquired Mets’ farmhand Jesus Flores in the 2006 Rule V draft, I didn’t give the move a second thought until I looked up his statistics.

That season, he hit .266-21-70 in the Florida State League and was considered New York’s catcher of the future.

He wasn’t protected because catchers just aren’t taken in the Rule V draft. To mature, catchers need to play everyday and Rule V players are required to spend the entire season in the major leagues.

Class-A catchers have to be hidden at the major league level, and that’s just what the Nationals did.

In 574 major league at-bats (roughly a full major league season), Flores has hit an impressive .260-16-99 and has shown he has the ability to be even better.

But over the past two seasons, he has played in just 119 games. Last season, a known injury got worse and required surgery. While rehabbing that procedure, another problem was found and another operation performed.

But the team was insistent that Flores would be ready for spring training. And yet, a couple of weeks after pitchers and catchers reported, Jesus Flores still can’t throw the ball 120 feet.

He is disturbed, disgruntled and depressed.

He knows that his path to stardom has been derailed.

So do the Nationals, and that is why the team signed “Pudge” Rodriguez to a two-year, $6 million contract when no other team would give him more than $4 million for a single year.

The Nationals can't again platoon Josh Bard and Wil Nieves and expect their bevy of young starters to learn and mature.

Injuries take their toll on catchers more than other position. In the mid 1960s, the Cubs’ Randy Hundley was a rising star, winning Gold Gloves, all star trophies and came close to winning the 1966 Rookie of the Year Award. From 1966 through 1969, he averaged 16 home runs and 66 RBI to go along with his outstanding defense.

The injuries began in 1970, however, and over the next seven seasons, he averaged just 55 games, hitting .222-3-16.

Had Hundley remained healthy, he would be mentioned today in the same breath with Gary Carter. Instead, he is known as the father of all-star catcher Todd Hundley, who remained mostly healthy throughout his career and averaged 27 homers per season.

Pudge Rodriguez will strengthen the Nationals’ defense and provide a strong bat as long as he is limited to 120 games or less. But the more he plays, the more tired he becomes, and the less he can help the team.

If Flores can come back by late June or early July, the Nationals will have one of the stronger catching platoons in the league. But if he doesn’t, Pudge will tire by mid-summer and the Nationals will again be forced to nurture their young pitchers with second-tier and second-rate catchers.

If that happens, any hope of an improved 2010 team will fall by the wayside.

Will Adam Kennedy Bring Stability to Second Base?

Since the Nationals came to Washington in 2005, there has not been even a modicum of stability at second base. Take a look at the revolving door:

2005:
Jose Vidro
Jamey Carroll
Junior Spivey

2006
Jose Vidro
Damian Jackson
Marlon Anderson

2007
Ronnie Belliard
Felipe Lopez
D’Angelo Jiminez

2008
Felipe Lopez
Ronnie Belliard
Willie Harris

2009
Anderson Hernandez
Ronnie Belliard
Alberto Gonzalez
Willie Harris

Over the past two seasons, the Nationals have tried—and failed—to sign Orlando Hudson in search of that elusive stability.

Meet “Plan B,” Adam Kennedy.

Kennedy, 33, is an 11-season veteran. His career 162-game average is .277-8-58 with 19 steals. Some are concerned however that Kennedy is just two seasons removed from his worst year when he batted .219-3-18 for the Cardinals.

That season seems to have been an anomaly. In eight seasons as a starter, Kennedy has never hit lower than .266 and batted .300 or better twice. Since 2007, he has averaged .286-9-66 with 27 steals.

While he is a similar player offensively to Hudson, he does not bring with him the Gold Glove defense. And with the bevy of ground ball pitchers in the starting rotation, the Nationals have to have infielders who can catch and throw the ball.

Is Adam Kennedy that player?

Probably.

He’s not flashy. He’s not spectacular. But he usually gets to the ball and usually makes the throw to first to get the runner out.

If he can continue to be “average” just one more season before his skills begin to decline, the Nationals should finally have that stability at second they so crave, even if it is for just one year.

Is It Time for Ian Desmond to Become the Everyday Shortstop?

There is little doubt that Cristian Guzman will at least start the season at shortstop for the Washington Nationals.

But should he?

He is a 10-year veteran and is still just 31-years-old. In six seasons with Minnesota, Guzman averaged .266-8-56 with a .303 on-base percentage.

But after that horrid 2005 season (.219/.260/.314), Guzman’s 162-game average with the Nationals has been .305-9-62, .334 OBP—far better than his years with the Twins.

But an offensive shortstop is a luxury in 2010. What the Nationals need is a shortstop that can reach ground balls, pick them up, and throw them to first while making no mistakes.

And that isn’t Cristian Guzman.

In 2001, Guzman made 21 errors, one more than he did last year. His range, however, has declined significantly. His fielding percentage last season was 14 points below the league average.

This decline could partly due to age and partly due to a variety of injuries that Guzman has had to deal with since coming to Washington in 2005.

But the reason for the decline doesn't matter. It has happened and there is no indication that he can suddenly return to form in 2010 after a half-dozen years of slow decline.

Ian Desmond, though still just 23, has been a star-in-the-making since 2005 when then general manager Jim Bowden anointed him a Derek Jeter clone.

Last season, Desmond hit well during his September call-up. Based on 550 at-bats, his numbers would look like this: .280-28-84 with 49 doubles, 14 triples, and a .561 slugging percentage.

No, he’s not going to be a slugger, but he could be a .280-15-75 type of big league hitter.

Defensively, Desmond had a lower fielding percent then Guzman did in 2010, but that doesn’t tell the story of his true defensive talents. He has tremendous range and can make spectacular plays look easy.

But while Desmond can be counted on to take hits away from major league batters, so too can he be counted on to throw balls into the stands and attempt plays he never should, turning infield singles into inside-the-park home runs with his still-erratic arm.

We know what Cristian Guzman will give the Nationals in 2010. We think we know what Ian Desmond can provide, but we’re not sure. That said, I doubt Desmond would be any worse and could be a great deal better.

But Guzman is earning $8 million this season and the combination of that contract and his declining skills makes it difficult to trade him to clear the way for Desmond.

And benching him is something the Nationals are just not willing to do at this point.

If the Nationals think the team can approach the .500 mark, Guzman will probably be the team’s shortstop. But if the team somehow finds itself in a pennant race, Ian Desmond might take over.

He could be a difference maker.

Can Josh Willingham Ever Find Consistency?

I love Josh Willingham. He’s a great person and a solid major league player. But he has one glaring flaw: he is perhaps the most inconsistent player on the team, perhaps even the division.

Over his first 37 games with Washington last season, through May 28th, Willingham batted just .235-6-9.

For the next two months (75 games), Willingham batted .324-16-48 and at times carried the Nationals on his broad shoulders. It was in the midst of that streak that he hit back-to-back grand slam home runs against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

But it didn’t last.

Over the Nationals final 31 games, Willingham looked lost, hitting just .140-3-4.

In 68 games (at the beginning and end of the year), he batted .178-9-13 but hit .324-15-48 in 75 games in the middle of the year.

He wasn’t, as his stats would suggest, a solid if unspectacular slugger last season. No, he was either Albert Pujols or he was Mario Mendoza, and the Nationals won when he was Pujols and they lost when he was Mendoza.

The team’s offense isn’t yet good enough to carry Willingham for a month or more when he’s not hitting. If he continues this all or nothing way of hitting, the Nationals will continue to struggle for long periods of time in 2010.

Will Ryan Zimmerman Be Able to Repeat His 2009 Season?

From 2005-2008, Ryan Zimmerman averaged .282-22-94 (.341 OBP, .462 SLG) for the Washington Nationals. Those were good but not great numbers.

He played like a Gold Glove third baseman who also provided some occasional pop with the bat.

But last season, Zimmerman had that breakout season we were hoping would come. He hit .292-33-106 (.364 OBP, .525 SLG) and statistically dominated baseball’s other third basemen. He won the Silver Slugger Award as well as his first Gold Glove.

But when he takes that first swing on Opening Day, will he be the slugger of 2009 or the pesky hitter from the previous years who had “just enough” power to be a corner infielder?

Zimmerman’s improvement last year was due in part to his continued improvement but mostly because he was seeing better pitches to hit thanks to Adam Dun batting cleanup.

Because Dunn will continue to bat fourth for the Nationals—probably for a long time—Zimmerman should continue to provide big offensive numbers for the Nationals.