The 2010 Honda Classic Six Pack

Of course, one of my favorite golfers wins last week, and I never even had him on my radar.

Congrats to Hunter Mahan.

What a crazy finish to that event.

As most of you know, I was riding Villegas and Snedeker. Even though they probably weren’t going to win, Villegas looked promising on Thursday and Friday for at least a top-five finish. Snedeker slowly advanced, and looked to definitely contend come Sunday.

Villegas finished just outside the top five and I don’t even have the words to describe what Brandt Snedeker did. Let’s just say nice words weren’t flying around my living room on Sunday evening.

2010 has been ice cold for me. I apologize to you, my loyal readers, but it can only mean that things will be turning around soon.

Let’s look inside the numbers...

Last year, through the ninth event of the year I already had amassed ten top-five finishes or better and also had picked four winners. Our net result was +114 units.

This year, I have nailed down a paltry THREE top-five finishes, and only one winner in Ian Poulter at the WGC match play championship.

This year’s net result so far is a misery-ridden -38 units. It’s really not that bad of a hole to dig out of. All we need is a winner and we are back to even, or possibly better.

Just like the New England weather, the sun has to come out at some point...doesn’t it?

This week we have The Honda Classic. Our first Florida event of the year is being held at The PGA National. This course with the famous “Bear Trap” has been host to the event since 2007.

After perusing the winners over the past ten years three things were very characteristic of the winners.

1. They were all about driving accuracy over length.

2. All were excellent scramblers.

3. A majority of the winners were first-time visitors, or coming back from an extended absence from the Honda Classic.

The last person to successfully defend their title here was none other than Jack Nicklaus in 1978.

Translation: Sorry Y.E. Yang. Although you’re playing great, odds are that you will not win this year, hence, “No six pack for you.”

At least Yahoo! fantasy seems to be doing okay. I currently have 1266 points.

I rank in the 81st percentile (up two points) overall, and in my FOHM group I am in the 76th percentile (up four points).

Currently the only Yahoo “expert” I am besting is Michael Arkush, however I am within 100 points of the leader Eric Planer.

Here’s this week’s fantasy lineup:

GROUP A
Start: Ernie Els
Bench: Charlie Wi

GROUP B
Start: Robert Allenby / Camilo Villegas
Bench: Rory McIlroy / Alex Prugh

GROUP C
Start: John Rollins
Bench: Justin Rose

It’s time for a value and long shot ridden six pack, so hold on tight.

No. 1: Camillo Villegas

Camilo may be looking at last week’s tie for eighth as a disappointment, but let’s face it, it’s still a top ten finish.

Pair that up with his third place finish at the WGC match play event and his two other top ten’s on the Euro tour, and you have to give him strong consideration.

Villegas has placed as high as second at this track. That was back in 2007, when he was the Camillo of old. Look for another strong performance this week from him at PGA National.

Check out these stats:
Villegas is second in actual scoring average with 68.25 strokes per round.

He is eleventh on tour in putts per round with 28 strokes.

He is third in “all-around ranking”

I love Villegas this week, and this year. Take a shot on him at 28:1 odds.

No. 2: Tim Clark

This is a great opportunity for Clark to get his elusive first win on the PGA tour. He is playing fantastically so far this year, going four for four on cuts made, with three of those finishes in the top ten.

Clark has not played this course before, but that is okay. Remember what I said earlier about first timers and extended absence players at The Honda Classic. Past performance here is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

However, you can take stock in Tim Clark’s numbers:

He ranks fifth in accuracy at 76.17 percent.

He is eleventh in scrambling at 70.79 percent.

Timmy is also third in actual scoring average with 68.35 strokes per round

At a whopping 33:1 odds, Tim Clark is a great pick this week.

No. 3: Chad Campbell

Now here’s a guy you don’t see in my six pack too often, but this week I have a feeling about him.

Campbell is three for five on cuts made, which at first thought is not great. What is great is his progression in his last three events. He has gone 37th, 33rd, and 24th. I like that progression and upward recent trending.

Campbell has had success at The Honda Classic in years, yet has only tackled the PGA National course once in the past three years and he placed 20th. This is not a bad thing.

Numbers that help Campbell this week:

His driving accuracy is 65.74 percent.

He ranks thirteenth in final round scoring average at 68 strokes.

Chad is looking forward to the “Bear Trap” as he currently is seventh on tour in par-three performance at -8 strokes.

Chad Campbell offers terrific value this week with odds as high as 66:1

No. 4: Jason Dufner

Here is another sneaky pick this week.

Dufner is three for four on cuts made this year and he is actually trending DOWN, which would typically make him a very unattractive pick.

I would love to give you some keys stats that align his current skills to his success this week, but let’s face it, his numbers aren’t so hot.

What I DO like is his past performance here at PGA National. Last year he finished ninth, and in 2007 he was 13th.

In each of those years, he was coming off paltry early season performances, only to shine bright at The Honda Classic.

I believe that trend will continue for him this week.

I see Dufner in a great spot to come out of the woodwork and surprise everyone this week.

He offers tremendous value (even if he only places fifth or better) with odds of winning set at 80:1.

No. 5: Matt Every

This is a week of long shots for me, yet this long shot may not be too far off the mark come Sunday.

Matt Every is four for five on cuts made this year and is showing some outstanding UPWARD trending, with his most recent finish being a tie for eighth at last week’s WM Phoenix Open.

This relatively unknown on the PGA tour also won the Nationwide Tour Championship in October last year, so he has a taste of what it means to win.

This will be Every’s first stab at The Honda Classic and these stats will lead him to success:

Matt is ranked 27th in Total Driving so far this year.

Every ranks 15th on tour in par breakers at 25.62 percent.

Matt is a great ball striker ranking 25th on tour in this category

I could not pass up on Matt Every this week at an unreal 100:1 odds of winning. This guy is totally flying under the radar right now.

No. 6: Brett Quigley

Here is another pick that may have you scratching your head, but there is a method behind my madness.

Quigley has made four out of six cuts this year, but his efforts have been pretty poor with his best finish being a tie for 37th.

Quigley is a notoriously slow starter each year and he has never won in his almost twenty years on tour. He has knocked on the door a few times, but never sealed the deal.

Luckily for him it is time for The Honda Classic, where year after year, he rises from mediocrity and performs well above his expectations.

He has tied for 12th and 13th the past two years here, and has finished as high as fourth and eighth back in the early 2000’s.

Call me crazy, but for some reason Brett Quigley shows up at this event, and at 175:1 odds, I have to give him a shot.

Good luck to you all this week, and on some of these higher odds guys, don’t forget to bet them to finish fifth or better, as well as to win.