The Ravens are rebuilding, the Bengals are trying to find themselves, the Browns are actually awesome, and the Steelers still find themselves atop the AFC North. But for how long?
Here, I discuss and predict the 2008 season for the four teams that represent the AFC North division.
Baltimore Ravens
My prediction: 2-14, miss playoffs
The Ravens are trying to establish a new culture and an offensive identity. They have enough talent remaining from the previous years to be successful, even dominant at times, on defense. The problem is that they are young on offense, and have to find offensive leaders.
Defensively, the Ravens are sound, particularly up front with tackles Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata. Opposing teams will have to attack this defense through the air, because no one can run against them.
Offensively, though, the Ravens will struggle, especially early. They have a new offensive coordinator in Cam Cameron, a young offensive line, and several young quarterbacks.
Ideally, the Ravens want their offense to match the energy and the work ethic of their defense. That doesn’t come overnight. In some cases, it takes two to three years.
The fortunate thing for new head coach John Harbaugh is that he has a one to two-year honeymoon period. The Ravens should be competitive in most games because of their defense. If they can manage the game offensively early in the season and gain a few wins, the confidence will grow.
It looks like the window of opportunity closed for the Ravens when quarterback Steve McNair retired, but they have enough talent to hang around the .500 mark. With a little luck and few injuries, the Ravens might make some noise in the AFC North.
But it won’t be loud.
Cincinnati Bengals
My prediction: 3-13, miss playoffs
There is a lot of heat and criticism lobbed at the Bengals' defense for its poor play, but the offense must accept a heavy load of the blame, too.
For all of the star power on that side of the ball, the Bengals weren’t very efficient, despite some good stats during last season’s 7-9 campaign. They had to rely too much on the passing game to move the ball, and the opposing defenses knew that. Wide receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh faced the focus of defenses each week, and it showed.
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The Bengals were No. 10 in the league in yards, and they set a franchise record by giving up only 17 sacks, including zero over the final 13 quarters of the season. But their 30 turnovers were their most since 2004. They also had trouble in the red zone, converting only 48.2 percent of their opportunities into touchdowns.
Marvin Lewis stated at the owners' meeting in March that the team will commit to re-establishing the running game, which means Rudi Johnson has to return to form.
Until the defense can figure out a way to stop the run consistently, the unit will be an overall liability, and the Bengals will not be a serious postseason threat.
They finished 27th in the league last season in total defense and are banking heavily on young players again. They have a possibility of going with as many as 10 starters with no more than four years of experience.
Cleveland Browns
My prediction: 11-5, lose in Wild-Card Round
The Browns came close to the playoffs last season. Now they believe they can make it.
After trading their starting quarterback two days after opening day and giving the job to Derek Anderson, the Browns went on to pull off one of the most amazing in-season turnarounds in recent memory. Anderson led the Browns to 10 wins and threw 29 touchdown passes.
Anderson fit in with Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, and a rebuilt offensive line to give the Browns their best offense in years.
The offseason was about shoring up the defense (specifically the defensive line), as the team acquired Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers. If the defense can make the same strides that the offense made last season, the Browns have a legitimate chance to reach the playoffs...and advance in them.
There are hurdles to overcome, though. The players acquired must prove they can fit in a 3-4 defense. Rogers especially, must overcome questions about his desire and his ability to stay in shape. The cornerbacks are inexperienced, and the secondary is young. But on paper, the Browns have many of the pieces. Finally.
For the first time since the team returned in 1999, there is legitimate optimism in Cleveland. The players are there, the coach has been signed to a contract extension, and the front office is strong. The Browns could be the team to beat this year in the AFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers
My prediction: 12-4, lose in Divisional Playoffs
The Pittsburgh Steelers seem to be losing ground to oncoming Cleveland in the AFC North, and with the NFL’s toughest schedule, winning their division looks like their only ticket to another playoff berth.
Mike Tomlin did a nice job coaching the Steelers in his first season, but they ran out of gas, losing four of their final five, including a playoff game to Jacksonville at home.
They lost seven-time Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca and starting outside-linebacker Clark Haggans in free agency, and they added little in return.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line, which has long been a strength, is a jumbled mess, and its defensive line is getting old and lacks depth.
The Steelers did bolster their backfield by picking Rashard Mendenhall in the first round to team with Willie Parker. And, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, all things are possible. If it weren’t for him having his best season, that 10-6 record might have matched the 8-8 mark from Bill Cowher’s final season.
He set records with 32 touchdown passes and a 104.1 passer rating, including two perfect games. He has a good receiving corps, but he’s also been sacked 93 times the past two seasons. He needs some relief there.
Pittsburgh still plays solid defense, but not quite as solid as in the past, particularly against the run. In a few fourth quarters last year, they abnormally gave up late leads in several losses.
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2 months ago
I'm a huge Steelers fan, but I have my doubts about the upcoming season. They have a very tough schedule, weak cornerbacks, and too many questions on the offensive line to go 12-4 this year. I think 10-6 is a more likely scenario. We'll see.
from 2 months ago
10-6 seems like a good assumption as well. they do have a tough schedule and their cornerbacks arent really the best in the world. But, Ben Roethlisberger is a very strong leader for the Steelers club, their wide receivers such as Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are both very talented, they also have a great TE in Heath Miller. Willie Parker and Rashad Mendenhall make a great 1-2 punch in the RB position. If they Steelers can avoid the injury bug this year and if players like these make plays when needed then ill stick with my 12-4 record.
2 months ago
Wow, I would say that your prediction about the Ravens is pretty inaccurate. Explain to me how this team could be any worse offensively than last year? With Cam Cameron directing them there is no reason to think that their offense will be any worse. The D is good enough by itself to win some games, as long as everyone is healthy. The terrible pass coverage problem should be fixed since cmac and rolle will be back. Rolle is aging but decent (played 6 games? last year), but C-mac is still a top corner (as he proved last year by limiting randy moss to 34 yds on one good leg). They also added some much needed depth at cb with Washinton and Walker. Finishing close to .500 is a reasonable assumption.
from 2 months ago
yeah cam cameron the guy who just went back to offensive corrdinator after being a head coach for a 1-15 team
2 months ago
Good insight, but I really don't see the Steelers winning 12 or the division over the Browns. I think with the depth of talent that the Browns have acquired during the off-season they are certainly the favorites to win the division.
2 months ago
I don't think the Ravens or Bengals are going to be as bad as you think and I don't think the Browns and Steelers are going to be as good as you think.
This is a division where all 4 teams flat out don't like each other and will beat up on each other a bit. Throw in the tough schedule versus the AFC South and NFC East and it will be difficult for anyone to win more than 10 games.
It will come down to if the Browns can beat the Steelers for the first time in 5 years. Plain and simple.
from 2 months ago
the AFC North division is basically the same as all other divisions in the NFL as far as not liking each other. The Browns and Steelers are going to be capable of winning games that the Ravens and Bengals aren't. It will indeed come down to the Browns or the Steelers to win the division, no doubt. plain and simple.
2 months ago
No chance in hadies the Stealers are going to get 12 wins with that schedule. The division will end up much closer than you think with the SOS games being huge factors in the end. Remember in the AFCN aside from the Browns the games are usually split 1-1.
I've been saying since the schedule came out I doubt anyone in the division will have 10 or more wins. AFCN will look like an NFC division this year.
2 months ago
i just dont see any team in the AFC North thats as well put together are the Steelers. However, the Browns could very well get at least on win against Pittsburgh. I wouldnt actually be surprised if they did pull one out against the Steelers. thanks for the comment! highly appreciated.
2 months ago
I must agree that 12-4 is probably out of reach for Pittsburgh, partially for the reasons you stated as to the problems on their O line and their aging D line (which they did nothing in the offseason to improve). But for them to go 12-4 and Cleveland to go 11-5? These two teams play common opponents except for the following: the Steelers drew New England and San Diego and the Browns will play Denver and Buffalo. Now, unless you think Pittsburgh can again sweep the Browns, there's just very little chance of your W-L predictions coming true as far as these two teams are concerned. I notice that you've joined the group questioning the motivation and stamina of Shaun Rogers. First hand observers have told me that he came to OTAs in great shape and is showing some of that quickness he was once noted for. And don't forget that with the D line rotation Romeo should be able to employ this year (FINALLY), Rogers won't have to take 60-65 snaps a game as he often had to in Detroit. I'd say more like 35-45 per game should be the norm. If so, he's liable to become a truly disruptive force up front where it all starts. With him at RE, Corey Williams at LE, and Shaun Smith at Nose on running downs, offenses will have to pick their poison as to which one(s) to double. Should be very, very interesting. Has all the makings of a ton of hurries and sacks against Big Ben. That sight should make Charlie Frye very happy!
2 months ago
is cam going to be the head coach?? not the last time i checked, he is one of the best OFFENSIVE coordinators in the league. Comparing how good of an offensive coordinator he is to his head coaching ability makes no sense. As we all know great coordinators are not always made to be head coaches.
about 1 month ago
I would have to say that you're predictions for the Ravens and Bengals are completely understated. At worst, either team will be 5-11 or 6-10. And neither the Browns or Steelers will win 12 games, 10 more likely with the schedule this year.
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