Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey win 15 games: If both of these guys can pitch like they did two years ago, the Mets will find themselves in an unfathomable situation of having multiple reliable starters not named Johan Santana. Likelihood of this happening = 4%.
David Wright competes for NL MVP: If Wright is in contention for an MVP award come September, he'll have to have numbers that look like an average around .315, 30 home runs, 110 RBIs, and 90 runs scored. If Wright puts up those numbers, the Mets will win at least 15 more games than they did last season if not more just on Wright's bat alone. Likelihood of this happening: 20%
The bullpen blows less than 12 games: The last time this happened for the Mets I think Gerald Ford was in office. This would take a miraculous turnaround with Escobar getting healthy and performing up to par, Feliciano not being overworked before June, Nieve/Figueroa/Parnell becoming decent bullpen contributors and KRod being the KRod of old. Likelihood of this happening = 1%
Jose Reyes becomes a patient hitter: Jose Reyes is an offensive threat without even swinging the bat. If he can show patience at the plate, increase his walks total by 20%, look to hit the ball in the gaps instead of over the fence, and be aggressive on the base paths the Mets will score more runs than the majority of NL teams out there. Likelihood of this happening = 15%
Stay healthy: Every season has players that go on the disabled list, but if the Mets can keep their core players healthy and consistent, they have a chance to compete. All I ask is that Wright, Bay, Reyes, Santana, Pelfrey, Beltran (when he gets back) & KRod stay off the disabled list for an entire season. Likelihood of this happening: 20%
Beltran comes back at 100%: A middle of the lineup that includes Wright, Beltran and Bay is as formidable a threesome as you'll find in the National League. Pair that with a Reyes/Pagan tandem in front and you have big inning potential every 3 innings. But what will the Beltran that comes back off of rehab look like? Likelihood of this happening: 50%.