Overall, here are the splits from the additions and losses from last year.
The Sox lose Jason Bay, leaving them with -36 HR, -120 RBI.
The Sox pick up Adrian Beltre, he'll easily get 25 HR, 90 RBI, to replace Lowell, who posted 17 HR and 75 RBI, resulting in 8 more HR, 15 more RBI.
After Beltre's addition, the Sox are at -28 HR, -105 RBI.
The Sox pick up Mike Cameron from free agency. He's a 25 HR, 70 RBI guy.
Sox have reduced the deficit and now are at -3 HR, -35 RBI.
Victor Martinez will be in Boston for a full year to replace Jason Varitek, who generously is a 15 HR/60 RBI guy. Victor is a 25 HR/95 RBI hitter, which is conservative considering he had 108 RBI last year.
This again helps the Sox offense, and overall they now have a +7 HR and are even on the RBI.
This is not taking into consideration Ortiz's numbers, mainly because he is so volatile that you don't know which Ortiz you'll get. Tag the potential trade for Adrian Gonzalez in there if he starts slow, and there is no way to make an accurate prediction.
Again-when you break down the numbers, the Red Sox will have as good or better offense with better defense. The numbers may not all be coming from one person, but as everyone was told when they were growing up, don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Theo spread the offense around six hitters rather than just one, which will help the Sox succeed when there is a drought of offense from one of their run producers. Look for the AL East to be very interesting this year.