Conference Realignment Battle and Birth of Super Conferences

With the recent news of the Pac-10 expanding and the Big Ten considering it, motions to change the landscape of the NCAA have begun. And when this happens, we often see that there are "winners" and "losers."

In 2003, the ACC made a move to secure three Big East schools. The result was the Big East replacing those three football schools with schools from C-USA. The trickle down effect continued when C-USA raided the WAC, who then took aim at the Sun Belt Conference. The ACC moves were done to improve the level of football by adding Miami. Virginia Tech was a very good consolation prize after being forced in by the state of Virginia over the previously favored candidate, Syracuse.

This time around, the primary goal for expansion is NOT so the Big Ten can simply add a championship game and make a few extra million. Instead, its, and perhaps the Pac-10's, expansion drive is led by the desire to increase revenue by expanding coverage of its television network.

Any conference with a partnership with networks such as ESPN or Fox among others, can improve its long-term revenues by adding an attractive new member. But the Big Ten is in position to handle things on its own. A school from "Market X" will be considered for the conference if it provides a "Y" number of cable subscribers for its network, and generates a "Z" amount of revenue.

It's this reason alone that the Big Ten—specifically, Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez—has made it clear that while expansion plans now aim to increase it to 12 members, it may be 13-16 in the near to distant future.

Simply put: If the projections increase revenue for each of the current 11 Big Ten schools, expanding to any number is fair game.

That's not entirely the case for other conferences that solely rely on partnerships with major television networks other than their own.

So the idea of the Big Ten even considering growing to more than 12 schools is like a world power declaring it will bring new members into its alliance.

And when that happens, it means other alliances are weakened.

Currently, there are six BCS conferences that receive the vast majority of revenue from college sports.

And the pecking order , based on yearly revenue in millions of dollars:

Big Ten (242), SEC (205), Big 12 (78), ACC (67), Pac-10 (58), and the Big East (33).

The upper (Big Ten and SEC), and lower tiers (Big East) are defined, but it's those conferences in between that are of real importance. Some will survive. Others will be hurt.

The Big 12 has a football contract that will be up for renewal in 2016, but Texas contributes the largest portion of its revenue. That's why rumors of them going to the Pac-10 or Big Ten are circulating. They, along with Texas A&M, would help increase those conferences revenue.

But because of a television contract that hurts schools not getting as much exposure as schools like Texas, along with its geography, the Big 12 is in a position where it could lose members in the near future.

Colorado is rumored to be a potential Pac-10 candidate, and Missouri sits high on the potential Big Ten's list. Nothing is set in stone and it's all speculation as this point. However, these schools aren't going to be at the top and making money like Texas in the Big 12. For Colorado to justify a move, the Pac-10 would likely need to create its own television network.

So in this "arms race" where conferences look to add powerful, revenue-generating programs in attractive markets, we could be looking at an interesting future.

The Current BCS:

Below, you'll find the current maps of BCS conferences.

I've attempted to give a basic feel for the power a current conference has in a state. So if you look at Iowa, you'll see a small designated area for the Big 12 and it's member Iowa State. The reason being not because Iowa has a stronger presence in the state, but more importantly, they take in $20 million a year—a much larger number than Iowa State. I've provided similar scenarios in Pennsylvania where Penn State is king, but Pittsburgh still has it's own market share.

In the south, I've attempted to fairly depict the SEC and ACC. Florida is a state strongly influenced by the University of Florida outside of the panhandle, and south Florida near Miami. In Georgia and South Carolina, the SEC influence across the entire state is somewhat stronger than that of ACC schools, Georgia Tech and Clemson.

The First "Expansion" Shots Fired:

Three conferences will be trying to get better TV deals in the coming years: ACC, Pac-10, and Big 12.

The Pac-10 currently has the fewest mouths to feed, so expansion for them depends on a couple primary factors:

1) What type of revenue can the Pac-10 get for each of its current 10 schools?
2) If an expansion introduces them to new markets, how much more revenue would be produced for the same 10 schools?

If negotiations bring their current $5.8 million per school average to $10 million, that's a nice increase. But if ESPN, NBC/Comcast, or Fox say 12 teams would make it $12-$15 million per school, then expansion would happen.

The Pac-10 is not going to expand unless it will generate more revenue than it could on its own.

The same holds if the Pac-10 were to opt to create its own TV network. A real possibility after bringing in BTN executive, Kevin Weisberg as Pac-10 COO.

But should they expand, Utah and Colorado are likely targets because of the Salt Lake City and Denver markets, respectively, along with smaller ones in both states.

And then there's the 800-pound gorilla—the Big Ten.

We know money is its motive for expansion, and it seems that expanding east into the NY/NJ markets with Rutgers or Syracuse as the 12th school is logical, but the unique nature of owning a TV network means they don't have to stop there.

And that's where the battle begins.

While the Pac-10 could make the first move by adding Colorado and Utah, the Big Ten can secure its product by expanding further into the Big 12 footprint, in addition to moving eastward.

Schools in the east such as Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt remain top targets. If two of them left, the Big East's $33 million contract takes a hit. The Big Ten can also damage the Big 12 with the addition of Missouri and Nebraska. Even Kansas could be in play.

What we know is that Texas holds the cards for the future of the Big 12.

If they lost three schools and found replacements like BYU, Houston, and TCU, it would remain a solid conference where Texas still receives the most revenue.

But what if its TV contract negotiations take a hit from three to four departures? Texas would be in play, and the SEC could make a bold move.

The Battleground Markets/Schools

Once we get past the simple plus-one expansion in the Big Ten and plus-two for the Pac-10, things would get interesting. There's nothing that says we'll ever see the mythical 16-team, BCS "super conferences." But when looking at the intentions of each conference it seems possible.

When the expansion and realignment process begins, each conference will have a somewhat similar set of criteria based on their goals:

1) Generate revenue.
2) Secure the well-being of your conferences product.
3) Provide an affiliation of universities with similar goals (academic filter).
4) Consider expanding into new markets that help goals No. 1 and No. 2.

And when it comes to goal No. 2, that could entail making crushing moves against your competing conferences.

And that's when we look at the potential casualties: the Big East and Big 12 (if Texas left).

The pecking order is simple. The Big Ten will get its No. 12 and may look well beyond that. Could the departure of four Big 12 members make Texas consider a new home? Perhaps.

If this happens it would mean:

1) Big Ten potentially absorbs some Big East and Big 12 schools/markets.
2) Pac-10 could absorb some remaining Big 12 schools/markets.
3) ACC could be forced to protect its northeast presence by expanding further north, and perhaps be forced to consider current Big East schools that they ideally wouldn't target.
4) SEC could benefit by adding Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State if the Big 12 were to lose many members. It's a scenario much like the Atlantic Ten in 2003 when its 12-member conference had no expansion plans, but was approached by strong C-USA programs Charlotte and St. Louis, and expanded to 14.

Below you'll find an extension to the current BCS map above, showing the target markets/schools/states and potential movement.

If there were a scenario where we saw the birth of "super conferences" and the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, and ACC were to come out on top (with the remaining Big 12 and Big East schools left out), there are a few "hot areas" in the country based on the dominant schools in those states.

Schools/Markets of Interest

Texas: University of Texas is the obvious gem. While statements seem to indicate that Texas is currently content in the Big 12, they could one day be targeted by the Big Ten, Pac-10, or SEC. Texas A&M would be the likely school to accompany them if they made any move (having a governor who is an A&M alum certainly helps that). The other two Big 12 schools in Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor, may be left behind in any scenario.
Nebraska: An option for the Big Ten should they expand to 12 or more. Nebraska could also be considered by the Pac-10 if they added Colorado and Utah, given there aren't as many Pac-10 programs as strong as Nebraska.
Kansas: Another interesting school. If the Pac-10 chose to go east and expand to 14 or 16 schools, Kansas would make plenty of sense (and revenue), along with Colorado, and perhaps Nebraska. The Big Ten might look to Kansas if there were a favorable scenario in which they expanded to 14 or 16 schools. Kansas State is in a tough spot here as they would likely be left out of any movement.
New York: This is an interesting market. You've got Syracuse as the lone Big East school in the state. The Big Ten would be wise to secure Syracuse now. If they don't, the ACC could move in with an expansion to 14, and really secure the northeast with current member Boston College.
New Jersey: Identical to the Syracuse situation. If the Big Ten doesn't add them, the ACC will likely protect its product if the Big Ten made a move to 14-16 schools.
Connecticut: Less appealing to the Big Ten, but certainly on the ACC's radar. Many feel that had UConn would already be in the ACC had its football program been where it is today in 2003. If the Big Ten expands with Rutgers and Syracuse, UConn could become a quick target of the ACC.
Pittsburgh: The school makes sense in the Big Ten. But if you already have Penn State, do you need to add a school in your own backyard? Perhaps. But if Pittsburgh were left out of the Big Ten, and the Big East is reduced to only six football members, the ACC would be wise to stake its claim in the northeast with the Pennsylvania school.
West Virginia: If the Big Ten expands with two to three northeast schools, the ACC might be forced to to stake its claim. If Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt all left for the Big Ten, the ACC might be forced to look at schools like UConn, but also ones they've passed over in the past, like WVU. At that point, it's all about self-preservation for a conference, and the northern fringe of a strong and profitable program like WVU might outweigh some of the academic concerns the ACC currently has for certain candidates. Let's face it: When we're talking 16-team conferences, money's obviously the driving force, not academics. That might not be the case with 12 teams, but once you get that large, it's all about the money.
Louisville: Much like WVU, Louisville is not going to be one of the ACC's top targets. But if put in a position to keep on pace with the Big Ten and SEC as the only three eastern BCS conferences, it might require making decisions they wouldn't do now. Ten years from now, the ACC could very well be a 16-team conference with UConn, WVU, Pitt, and Louisville.
Colorado: Not a likely option for the Big Ten. Most likely an option for the Pac-10's plus-two expansion.
New Mexico: Perhaps if the Big 12 needed a replacement or two, New Mexico would be considered. But in a scenario with four "super conferences," the best hope for UNM would be a Pac-10 invite.
Utah: Already considered the most likely option for the Pac-10 since they would join immediately, if invited. BYU is still a factor after the University of Utah.

The Super Conference Scenario Aftermath

And then there were four.

There are so many scenarios that could still take place. But it all starts at the top of the pecking order. Other conferences would make their moves depending on what the Big Ten does.

So hypothetically, we could see a major change that looked like...

Big Ten :adds Rutgers, Syracuse, Missouri, Nebraska, and Pitt.

You could easily find Iowa State in that group. Why? Political pressure. We've seen it before in the ACC when Virginia refused to give a "yes" vote for expansion unless Virginia Tech were included. Iowa would have little influence if the Big Ten expanded by one school. But if they expanded to 16 and the Big 12 was to fold or face BCS demotion, the Iowa legislation might force Iowa St. to be included.
SEC : adds Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.

This would make the SEC the premiere conference. Even with the new markets in the Big Ten, an SEC with these four schools would be as strong as they come. It would be a bold move by the SEC, and by Texas, who would have to lead the way. The departure of these four schools would mark the end of the Big 12.
Pac-10 : adds Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Kansas.

It might not seem like a home run Pac-14. But there are just too few options available in the region. Adding Colorado and Kansas would be a coup compared to a San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada, or Fresno St. Utah and New Mexico would extend the footprint as well, and bring in two more larger markets to help support a new Pac-10 TV network.
ACC : after watching Rutgers, Syracuse, and perhaps even Pitt leave the Big East to strengthen the Big Ten in the northern section of the ACC backyard, the ACC will be left scrambling for quality programs and revenue producing markets. Uconn and Pitt would top the list if both were available. After that, it's pure self-preservation. And WVU and Louisville could provide some growth, and keep the ACC on par with the SEC and Big Ten—albeit, still a long shot. Ideally for the ACC, as the map shows, the Big Ten would expand with Rutgers, Pitt, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa St, allowing the ACC to add a strong foursome with Syracuse, Uconn, WVU, and Louisville. They can only hope it works out that way.

The Winners

TV Networks: they'd all get their current conferences into even more markets.
Big Ten: they'd now have further access to the profit-enticing northeastern markets like NY/NJ with Rutgers and/or Syracuse. Missouri would also add a strong market and quality program. Nebraska brings a national presence to the conference. Pitt would add even more in the northeast, and Iowa State—while not the most attractive candidate—would keep Iowa happy if there were political pressures.
SEC: what else can you say—Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be a grand slam. It's tough to imagine a better way for things to play out for this conference. All of a sudden that $205 million contract could increase, headed by the additions of premiere programs. Those four would have instant rivalries with LSU and Arkansas as well.
Pac-10: if the money works out with a new television contract or TV network, a Pac-14 with Colorado, Kansas, Utah, and New Mexico could be a big bonus. It's not nearly the impact the Big Ten and SEC would see, but still a solid improvement. The grand slam for the Pac-10 would be Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Utah.
ACC: The ACC outcome would depend on who the Big Ten takes, and that could mean the ACC is happy or simply content. By adding UConn along with either Syracuse, Rutgers, or Pitt, the ACC would have two more northeastern markets to go along with Boston College. WVU and Louisville could potentially be options for No. 15 and No. 16. The conference would then have five of the original Big East football members with Miami, Boston College, Virgina Tech, WVU, and either Pitt, Syracuse, or Rutgers. UConn and Louisville of the Big East would also be in the mix.
Texas: wherever they go, it's because they are making more money.

The Casualties of the Conference Realignment War

Big 12: one of the strongest conferences could be forced to go through so many changes that they just wouldn't be the same. The conference could outright fold at that point.

Big East: Big East, we hardly knew you. With six of it's current eight members gone, the Big East would no longer be a BCS conference.

The likely path would be the dropping of football sponsorship as the only other scenario would include inviting six football schools from C-USA, MAC or Sun Belt. Since the eight basketball members would have all but two votes, it's unlikely that they would approve lowering the quality of the basketball product with the likes of ECU, UCF, Houston, USM, FIU, etc. Only if Temple and Memphis bring strong enough basketball programs would the Big East basketball eight potentially allow it.

Mountain West: in losing Utah, you can bring in Boise St. But in losing New Mexico, it would mean bringing in a school like Nevada, Fresno State, or Houston. Furthermore, depending on what happens in the Big 12, MWC schools could be likely targets. BYU likely tops that list along with TCU. Even other schools like UNLV could be targeted. If the Big 12 lost a large number of schools—for example, four—and took a large number of replacements from the MWC, we might see the MWC forced to invite half the WAC as replacements. In the end, you could even see the WAC and MWC forced to merge.

And there are BCS schools.

At the top of the list of losing schools would be those Big 12 members left out of the Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC. None would likely attract ACC interest. The remaining Big East schools would also likely be left without a conference as well.

Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Cincinnati
South Florida

What could happen to these schools?

A few options exist, but none would be clear cut BCS caliber conferences:

Mountain West: Now at eight strong, could add some or all of the four Big 12 schools. Texas Tech and Kansas State might top that list.

MWC: San Diego State, UNLV, BYU, Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, Kansas St., Texas Tech, TCU.
C-USA could bring in some, or all of these four schools to grow to as much 16.
C-USA could split as has been long rumored. The current eastern members have been less than happy with the Texas centric league. So C-USA could then be split with:

New Conference: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Marshall, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, UAB, USM.
C-USA: UTEP, Texas Tech, Baylor, SMU, Rice, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane, Kansas St.

As we know, things never play out how we think they will, and it takes just one minor change in the setup of the dominoes for things to go in a different direction.

But if the future path is indeed leading to just four BCS super conferences, there will be many changes taking place. And this might be exciting for the fans of schools that are part of it, but it will be a crushing blow to those schools left out. That means the MAC, C-USA, WAC and Sun Belt. You too, majority of MWC fans. The Big East is on a path to go through membership changes on the football side before a single conference even expands beyond 12. And some Big 12 schools currently in the BCS could find themselves on the outside looking in. So for all the excitement also comes fear for many schools.