The Tampa Bay Rays are the feel-good story of baseball. So why is it that I still have a bad feeling about their chances?
Perhaps my brain is locked in on the Yankees and Red Sox, the two Goliaths of the AL East that each year morphs us into Bill Murray’s character from Groundhog Day, in which life just repeats itself over and over again.
Wake up...Yankees and Sox in the playoffs. Wake up...Yankees and Sox in the playoffs. Wake up...Yankees and Sox in the playoffs.
It’s a viciously annoying cycle.
I wake up, and every day I see a new person diving headfirst onto the Tampa Bay bandwagon. Yet, every day, I stay behind and watch that wagon leave me in its wake.
Another sweep of Boston at “The Trop,” the best record in baseball, no signs of slowing down, and here I am presenting you with the first “anti-Rays” piece of the year.
Hang on a sec: I have to make sure that my head is screwed on straight.
Yep, it is.
Damn.
I don’t come here questioning Tampa Bay’s stockpile of talent—or purposely attempting to burst the Rays' bubble. I am questioning their longevity, as many have...until recent weeks, that is.
Tampa Bay’s pitching has been great, the defense solid, and the hitting's there at all the right moments. Many baseball prognosticators discuss how the youth of the Rays will help the team stay fresh throughout the long baseball season.
I instead stare Tampa Bay’s youth right in the face and can only think about how, countless times, young players wear down during that first season that features a giant workload.
Take a look at the rotation of the Rays. The oldest player on the starting staff, James Shields, is only 26. Youth usually equals inexperience. Let’s dive deeper into the starting five of the Rays.
Scott Kazmir, 24-years old
2008: 7-3, 2.63 ERA
Career Stats: 42-32, 3.50 ERA
Best Season: 2007, 13-9, 3.48 ERA
Red Flag: Over 200 innings only once in his career (2007), plus has had injury issues.
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Matt Garza, 24-years old
2008: 7-4, 3.47 ERA
Career: 15-17, 4.06 ERA
Career Best: This season
Red Flag: Never pitched over 100 innings in one season, and no more than 15 starts in one year.
James Shields, 26-years old
2008: 6-5, 3.70 ERA
Career: 24-21, 4.09 ERA
Career Best: 2007, 12-8, 3.85 ERA
Red Flag: Over 200 innings only once in his career (2007).
Edwin Jackson, 24-years old
2008: 4-6, 4.33 ERA
Career: 15-25, 5.30 ERA
Career Best: This season
Red Flag: 161 innings last year (Nothing over 40 previously). Never had an ERA under 5.00 (with exception to a four-game performance in 2003 with the Dodgers).
Andy Sonnanstine, 25-years old
2008: 9-3, 4.60 ERA
Career: 15-13, 5.31 ERA
Career Best: This season
Red Flag: Only one other season in majors—130 plus innings and 22 starts.
There you have it, an inexperienced and youthful rotation, in which more than half of the group is experiencing a career year so far.
Still, we haven’t even hit the dog days of summer yet. The All Star break isn’t even here. There’s certainly a chance that any of these players could begin to struggle as the season winds down. Injuries can, and do, occur.
As we all know, when a rotation falters, the bullpen usually crashes down with it. The 'pen doesn’t get its regular rest. When the pitching struggles, quite often the offensive players may start pressing. It’s all a domino effect.
Go ahead and bring up the 2006 Detroit Tigers as an example. Fine, Verlander was a rookie and pitched well, but Jeremy Bonderman had three seasons of 160+ innings before Detroit’s 2006 World Series run. The rest of the team was speckled with seasoned veterans such as Pudge Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, and Magglio Ordonez. Those Tigers were a different story.
Go ahead and talk about baseball’s trading deadline, and some potential moves Tampa Bay can make. I know they have the depth in their farm system to make a deal.
Still, every single one of us knows that both Boston and New York will find a way to refuel at the deadline. Players will drop their no-trade clauses and flock to each of these powerhouses. Plain and simple, the major markets will get deals done.
What I want to know is this: does the Tampa Bay front office have the stones to make a major deal?
Tampa Bay teams of the past certainly didn’t. The "Artist Formerly Known as the Devil Rays" dealt away Aubrey Huff way too late, never getting enough value for him. Then there was the injury-prone Rocco Baldelli, who was wanted by most of the league for years. Tampa Bay never moved him. Now, as sad as it is, Baldelli’s career is likely over.
Still, everyone jumps on the wagon, praising those sneaky little “devils” of the game—the Rays.
As for me, while the Rays are a fun and unexpected story, I can’t help but admit that I still see a collapse in sight. The rotation is young and inexperienced. If they falter, the bullpen will tire. Following that, the offense could begin to press.
All the while, the major markets are restocking their rosters. Maybe I’m off base. Maybe the Rays can use this piece as bulletin-board material. Maybe I’m still stuck in that Groundhog Day rut.
Wake up...“Rays of light” shining on the game of baseball. I awake and only see “Rays of Plight.”
That’s right, I’m doubting one of the better baseball stories in recent memory. Cue the Rays, who now have to prove me wrong.
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about 1 month ago
Age is only a number. Many times a young team is oblivious to their surrounding and won't let yankee stadium bother them in Oct. Yes their pitchers are young and wild at times, but fine another staff that has pitchers as good as Kaz, Shields, and Garza.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Danny - It is only a number, but experience comes with age... and experience helps. There are plenty of teams in the game with trios of starters that can match that of Tampa Bay. That isn't to say they aren't talented, because they certainly are. Just think of some teams of the past that have youth in starting pitching, but they couldn't get it done when it counted. Take the A's of 2003... with Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. They couldn't get it done in the end.
about 1 month ago
I disagree with Danny here, no matter the age of the player it's still "YANKEE STADIUM". For a young player to play in that stadium in october with their cindarella story on the line would be like a teenage garage band opening up for Aerosmith at Madison Square Garden, I'm sure it will get a little overwhelming. And the same goes for playing the defending champion red sox at fenway in october. As far as jumping on the bandwagon, I can't believe in a team until they've won a championship, and despite current W/L records the best team in baseball is the Boston Red Sox, and that won't change until someone else wins it all.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Tim - I agree... playing in any large venue on the biggest of stages is always going to be a major challenge for the younger players of the game. There certainly are a select few that were able to escape with victories. Josh Beckett comes to mind, when he was with the Marlins, and absolutely dominated the Yankees in the World Series.
from about 1 month ago
You can't believe in a team until they have won a championship?
Well obvioulsy after somone wins a championship it's pretty easy to believe in them then. So tim if your favorite team is had the best record in baseball and won their division you still wouldn't believe in them heading into the playoffs.
I doubt the Rays are going to have to worry about playing in Yankee Stadium in october since the Yanks aren't going to make the playoffs.
These are professional athletes so i find it kind of hard to compare them to a teenage garage band.
You pointed out the Rays "problems" with their pitchers so lets look at the Red soxs.
John Lester: Has never pitched more than 82 innings in a season before this year. Career 17-5 with 4.16 ERA.
Clay Buchholz: Never pitched more than 23 innings in a season before this year. Career 5-4 with 4.15 ERA.
Josh Beckett: We all know how good this guy has been but he has had several injury problems and has only pitched over 200 innings twice in his 6 full MLB seasons.
Dice K: Had a bit of a rough year last season with an ERA at 4.40 but is having a good season so far this year. However he also has little experience in the post season and has already been on the DL this year.
Tim Wakefield: A 41 year old veteran who has had some success. Career ERA is 4.31 and has only pitched over 200 innings 5 out of 16 full MLB seasons.
from about 1 month ago
Michael - Fair enough in regards to your points regarding the Red Sox and their rotation. However, they do appear to have some additional depth, and Epstein knows how to get deals done before the deadline.
about 1 month ago
I don't think the Rays are going to fade, they remind me a lot of the 2005 White Sox, Mad pitching.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Matt - The 2005 White Sox are an interesting comparison. Still, when I look at that team, not one player starting on offense or defense was under 25 years of age (unless you count McCarthy at the end of the season). Jon Garland and Juan Uribe were 25 I believe. Most of the rest of the team consisted of veterans in their late 20's and early 30's (e.g. Konerko, Garcia, Dye, Everett, Hernandez, etc.)
about 1 month ago
Kevin-
Congrats on your contract with FOXSports.com...cool, we work for the same company. Have fun with it....they have the coolest people working for them. Yeah you!
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Lisa! I definitely look forward to it... stay in touch.
about 1 month ago
Good Article. I would have noted how the Rays' bullpen is wildy inconsistent.
Percival has been getting saves as of late, but he's also been giving up a good amount of runs and hits. And Dan Wheeler who is stepping in as closer now, has been known to be wildly erratic at times when pitching late in games. Much of the reason he was traded from Houston along with Cap Issues last year.
All in all good article, as badly as I want to hop on the Rays' bandwagon, I'm still a realist and it's going to be extremely hard for these Rays to keep it up.
from about 1 month ago
Gage,
Thanks... appreciate you stopping by. It sounds like we are on the same page for the most.
The Percival situation was something I wanted to touch upon in the article, but didn't really find the place for it. Percival is also very injury prone, and I think if the Rays are going to make one deal, they should try and get someone with closer experience. One rumor I heard was for Brian Fuentes, who at one point closed for the Rockies.
from about 1 month ago
that would be very interesting to see if they could land Fuentes. I would hope that they would because you can never have enough pitching, but will they pull the trigger?
Though J.P. Howell has been very serviceable as their long relief man, but he could use some help in that position.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah, it would be. I'm trying to think who else could be available for them at the deadline. The O's could make Sherrill available, but I think that's a long shot, especially considering that they are still in the race... plus, they're in the same division together. They should add a veteran bat too to come off the bench.
about 1 month ago
Yay! Finally someone who I agree with.
from about 1 month ago
Hooray! Ha ha... thanks for stopping by.
about 1 month ago
The only thing that I doubt is not their ability is their depth. I am a Rays fan and have been since 2002. The one thing that the Red Sox and Yankees have is that if they are able to fill in players if they have injury problems maintain. The Rays will hold on to the lead if they can stay un injured or if the injuries are not more than a week. They have maintained through injuries to Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir. Also with the suspensions to multiple key players. Even though it seems improbable, the Marlins have done it twice in the past with a group of young players, and you are not taking that into account.
from about 1 month ago
Jonathan,
To some degree, they have depth.... but it is more so in the form of inexperienced, yet talented minor leagues. So, I guess depth is a relative term. Still, this is why Tampa Bay really should find a way to make a deal or two at the deadline... just not a major deal that severely disrupts their minor league system.
from about 1 month ago
I mean they do not have the depth that any of the AL east teams have. And they are a little more talented that a minor league all star team.
about 1 month ago
It may all fall apart come September & October, but I have watched the Rays' young talent from their Montgomery farm team, the Biscuits, and let me tell you they are for real. It may be another two to three years before it all comes together, but from what I've seen coming up the past three seasons, the Rays should be loaded for a while!
from about 1 month ago
Timothy,
I believe it. I researched some of the stats on that Biscuits, because at first I was searching for some weaknesses in depth due to injury. They definitely have few players in the minors that statistically show they could be ready for the majors in the near future.
about 1 month ago
I believe the Rays will go far this season, but excellent point about the Starting pitchers and their lack of innings pitched. Where are the innings going to come from late?
Do I hear CC Sabathia knocking??
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Harris.
Regarding Sabathia... if you ask me, I would be shocked to see that. Only because you would expect Cleveland to ask for the farm to get him in a deal... maybe even having David Price as a centerpiece, which Tampa Bay would never do.
from about 1 month ago
Yea I agree Kevin, if he goes anywhere it seems as if the Brewers are looking like a possible destination with having either Mat Gamel or Matt LaPorta as the centerpiece of the deal. That seems like the "most-likely" deal to take place.
from about 1 month ago
Milwaukee huh? What about the Yankees? Though they may not have enough depth to make a deal happen. Also, I assume the Indians will not give the team a window to try and sign him to an extension.
about 1 month ago
I have serious problems with believing that the Yankees will stay afloat. And it all stems from their rotation. Mussina and Pettitte sometimes appear to be past their prime, and now that the hoopla about Joba is winding down we have to actually figure out how good of a starter he really is. It got so bad that they brought back Sidney Ponson, and from what I've seen from his performance in the last few years, wanting the Pontoon in your rotation is like wanting a pot of boiling hot water to put out a fire--it looks dangerous, but maybe, just maybe, it'd work. But I digress...the Yanks put up 18 runs yesterday, sure. But they also gave up seven, and they also lost the series. To Texas. And let's not forget the 12-donut to Pittsburgh on that fateful Monday. I think the Rays picked the right year to be good, because the Yankees are toast if they can't solve their problems.
from about 1 month ago
Good points regarding the Yankees... but then again, it's the Yankees. Where they lack in effectiveness, they somehow find a way to fill holes at the deadline. While old, they still seem to find ways to get the job done late in the season. I'm not talking title, but playoffs... well... I wouldn't be surprised.
about 1 month ago
I am a huge Sox fan and with the way the Rays pitch and play defense they are 100 times scarier than an old Yankee team that can do neither
from about 1 month ago
That makes sense considering what you had to watch over the last few days, as Tampa Bay swept Boston under the rug at "The Trop".
from about 1 month ago
Uh, yeah exactly... that's why I said that
from about 1 month ago
Ha ha fair enough...
Nice win for the Sox last night over the Yanks...
about 1 month ago
Fun read, Kevin, but you almost sound like most Cincinnati sports fans I know (I'm one of them myself)
Anytime the Reds or Bengals go on a hot streak (which honestly, hasn't happened in a LONG time), we curl up in the fetal position and repeat to ourselves something along the lines of "This can't be happening" or "This is too good to be true" or "We're going to do something to screw this up"
The Rays have done well against the only other team in the AL that matters besides the Yankees, BoSox and ChiSox: The Angels. Obviously, you guys are doing something right ;)
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Ryan. It must be hard being a Cincinnati fan these days huh? It looks like you're an OSU guy though, that must help...
from about 1 month ago
I dunno, after the last two bowl games? Its been kinda rough to be a Bucks fan too. ;)
At least the Cyclones won the Kelly Cup. I guess that sorta counts...
from about 1 month ago
Argh, yeah that's right... that whole BCS thing. As a Penn State grad, I really don't care for OSU when it comes to sports. I will say this though, I do like Tressel. He's a classy guy. It's unmeasurable on how much better he is than Cooper.
about 1 month ago
Kevin you make a good point with their inexperience when you compared them to the 2003 oakland A's but for every example you use to disprove someone there is always one to prove you wrong as well.
How about the 1991 Atlanta Braves.
Tom Glavine: 25 years old. 20-11 record
John Smotlz: 24 years old. 14-13 record
Steve Avery: 21 years old. 18-8 record.
Remember this team went from LAST to FIRST and lost a controversial world series to the Twins in 7 games. The Rays finished last, last season didn't they?
Also, that braves team struggled to score runs. They Rays have a much better offense then the 91 braves team.
from about 1 month ago
Michael,
OK, I'll give you the Braves as one of those examples.... rare examples of a team that has managed to get the job done while being young.
However, does that mean that you are indirectly calling Kazmir, Garza, and Shields potential future Hall of Famers?!
about 1 month ago
Either way you cut it, it is going to be fun watching what unfolds in the next half of the 2008 MLB season! Happy 4th of July everyone!!
from about 1 month ago
Nick,
The second half should be great. Happy 4th to you as well!
about 1 month ago
GO RAYS
I hope they dont fade, really.
They are good for baseball
and so are the Marlins
I feel every time the Marlins win the WS, everyone loves it
except Chicago fans
but thats neither here nor there
great read!
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Reggie...
They're great for baseball, but maybe not so great for baseball ratings. As a whole though, great for baseball. There are a handful of surprises this year... from the Rays, to the Marlins, to the Cardinals, to the Orioles, and so on... it's been a great year thus far.
about 1 month ago
Great article. Rays are like the 2003 A's and somewhat similar to last years Rockies. Too young to realize what they in store for them. Plus, i don't like bartlett or garza. Yea, i'm a twins fan
from about 1 month ago
Branden,
Yep, I had made that comparison to the A's as well. Still that A's team had enough to carry them to the playoffs, but when the real pressure came, Oakland couldn't do anything once they got there. The real questions remains... what will happen with this year's Rays team?
about 1 month ago
Really, really well written man. 5 starz.
Let's hope, for Baseball's sake and the fans in Tampa/St. Pete, that you're wrong. They have suffered long enough and the Devil Rays, yah I said that, are really kickin' it up in the front office finally.
We need a feel good deal after the Mitchell Report you know and wouldn't it be cool for Lou Peniella to meet 'em in the WS?
about 1 month ago
Thanks L.J. I appreciate that.
Agreed we do need a good story like the Rays. They likely wouldn't help media ratings come playoff time, which is a shame. People should want to watch history if they can make it happen. Again, I didn't want to burst their bubble, it's just how I see things going unfortunately. As I said, I hope they prove me wrong.
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