College Football: 2008 Big 10 Preview.

The Big 10 FOURTH in my conference rankings?  Sure.  Almost pegged them fifth, but the overall strength and lack of a true patsy puts them here. 

The once proud and distinguished Big 10 conference has taken some serious hits by the public and experts alike over the past couple of years.  But it has predominantly been the losses of Ohio State in the past two BCS Championship games and Michigan’s defeat at home to Appalachian State last year that have led the way. 

We all know the story. 

Too slow...too methodical...three yards and a cloud of dust.  Right? 

You couldn't be more wrong. 

Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota all run some version of a spread or multiple receiver set offense.    With the addition of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan, the Wolverines will as well.  Add in the arrival of Terrelle Pryor in Columbus, OH and we will also see the sweater vest bring back some of the spread they used when Troy Smith was on campus.

Throw in the pro-set offenses of Michigan State and Iowa, and you really only have teams in Wisconsin and Penn State that rely upon grinding it out on the ground to win games.  Word has it that Penn State is going to a ‘spread’ offense this year.  Three yards and a cloud of dust?  Not even close. 

The Big 10 likely has only one team with 'serious' National Championship aspirations in Ohio State.  That is the main reason I have them ranked fourth in BCS supremacy. 

Other than what appears to be a weak top end, the Big 10 does not have a patsy in the entire conference, something most other BCS conferences cannot claim.  Penn State could be a sleeper contender, but they haven't seriously contended since Kerry Collins and KiJana Carter were residents in State College. 

So how do I see the Big 10 breaking down?  Here it is:  

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan
7. Illinois
8. Northwestern
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Indiana

  So here are my selections, and why:  

Ohio State:

Ahem... Excuse me, THE Ohio State.  With a grand total of 19 starters returning from a team that has played in the past two National Championship games, there isn't a whole lot to NOT like about tOSU.  

Offensively, they have the tools to do just about anything you want.  Run, pass, stretch the field, screen, dink and dunk. You name it, they have it.  Throw in the arrival of one of the most highly recruited players in College Football history in Terrelle Pryor, as a backup QB, and you have the makings of something special in Columbus.  If you don't consider Ohio State as a legitimate National Title contender, then you either:

1. Hate OSU 
2. Hate the Big 10
3. Believe their losses in the past two National Championship games should prevent them from ever playing in this contest ever again. 

If those thoughts enter into your mind then why did Florida win the National Championship in 1996?  (Beaten by Nebraska 62-24 in the previous years Fiesta Bowl.) 

Why did Oklahoma win the 2000 National Championship game after getting beat by a 5-7 Notre Dame team, a 7-5 Colorado team by 14, a 6-5 Texas Tech team by 10, and a Mississippi team in the Independence Bowl in the previous season? 

How about Tennessee in 1998 after getting beat by Nebraska 42–17 in the previous year’s Orange Bowl?  How about  THE same Ohio State program that was 7-5 in 2001, and then went on to win a National Championship in 2002, rolling to an undefeated season and supposedly beating one of the 'best' College Football teams in the history of College Football? 

 Well enough about that. 

On offense, we should see some major improvement in senior signal-caller Todd Boeckman.  Even if he doesn't improve that much, a repeat of last year’s performance would be good enough with the talent around him. 

Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells is the best RB in the nation and is my early season favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.  Brian Robiskie is a stud WR, and Brian Hartline, and Ray Small make very solid No. 2 and No. 3 options.  Throw in what is arguably the best offensive line in the country and you have the makings of a dominant offensive unit.  What is really appealing about the Buckeye offense this year is that they are extremely strong in their two deep rotations.  Many a BCS conference teams would be glad to line up OSU’s No. 2’s as their No. 1’s in 2008. 

So what about the defense?  Just as scary.  On defense, tOSU returns one of the most feared LBs in the nation in James Laurinaitis to roam the middle for a stodgy OSU defense.  Behind him is what I believe will be the Jim Thorpe award winner for the best defensive back in the nation in Malcolm Jenkins.  

James and Malcolm have some good stuff around them on defense as well.  Vernon Gholston and Larry Grant are gone, but they have studs in Ross Homan and Lawrence Wilson to replace them.  Throw in this year’s biggest splash at DE in Cameron Heyward (shouldn't be that big of a surprise) and the Buckeyes have it all. 

Laugh all you want, but their trip to USC will likely decipher at least one part of the National Championship game this year, much like OSU's battle with Texas in 2005.  The THE, will be put back into THE Ohio State in 2008.  Bank on it.  This is a team that has been close to tasting the almighty in the past two years.  Throw in my most respected coach in the country in Jim Tressel, and you have my pick for this year's National Champion.  

Penn State: 

Glutton for punishment?  Maybe. I keep pegging these guys to finish close to the top of the Big 10, and last year I had them on top.  You would think I would learn. 

With 18 starters returning and Joe Pa in his 1,000th year as head coach at PSU, I have to peg them here (someone please kick me while I'm down).  They were 4-4 in conference play last year, which was just a bit of a disappointment (really?).  

The Nittany Lions return the second best Offensive Line in the Big 10.  They also lose one of the most embattled QBs in the history of Penn State football in Anthony Morelli.  Much was expected of Anthony, and he quite simply did not produce, especially in big games when it really mattered.  The Lions will also return one of the best defenses in the Big 10.  Last year they gave up the most points that they have given up in the past three years. 

However, it was STILL only 17.5 points per game.  Good enough for seventh in the country in PPG, and 11th overall in yards given up per contest.  On the bad side, they lose two of the best defensive players in the nation in Sean Lee and Dan Connor. (Lee to injury, Connor to the NFL.)  Both were stalwart LBs, but if there is anything that PSU can replace, it is LBs. 

They aren't called Linebacker U for nothing.  Look for Chris Colasanti to step into a major role as a difference maker at MLB for the Lions in 2008.   Maurice Evans is an absolute stud, and an AA candidate at DE, and AJ Wallace at CB and Anthony Scirrotto at Safety anchor a strong secondary.  On the offensive side of the ball?  Depends. 

Evan Royster has some serious talent; Kurt Warner-type talent, and Derrick Williams needs to live up to his original billing with Deon Butler showing the way at WR.  As always, they have another solid OL in tow.  Just depends on the QB at PSU like it always has in most years.  

When they have a gamer they win, when they don't, well...they don't.  Throw in the supposed move to the ‘spread’ offense and this pick at #2 in the Big 10 gets even riskier.  But, I’ll call for it to be a good and necessary change and should help either Darryl Clark or Pat Devlin in their 1st year as the starting QB.  If things fall into place, PSU could find themselves BCS bowling again in ’08.   

Michigan State: 

Third?  Like I said, flip-flop the rest, and I'd have a hard time arguing myself.  BUT...I REALLY like Brian Hoyer the SR QB at MSU.  He is a winner.  Javon Ringer is a winner at RB as well. 

Mark Dantonio is a solid coach, who took a 4-8 disaster of a team in 2006 to a 7-6 record and a bowl game appearance in his 1st year.  Sure, they lost to Boston College in their bowl game, but BC was once ranked as high as #2 last year and losing by a field goal to an 11-3 team isn’t that bad. 

The Spartans return 13 starters, but they do lose 1 year wonder WR Devin Thomas (a JUCO transfer) to the NFL a year early.  The test that will maybe make or break this team is week 1: a visit to California.  If they come out victorious in that one, they could go 7-0 before a date with Ohio State.  If they show up short, they could also show up against Ohio State with a 2-5 record.  Such is the 'stability' of the Big 10 this year. 

But it isn't much different from any other league this year.  When all is said and done, I like Dantonio as the head coach at MSU, and coaching is likely the trump card when teams look like they are even.  That is why I put Sparty over the rest...although I'm not very excited about it. 

I expect the defense to get better in the 2nd year of the system, and the offense 'should' improve with a 2nd year bona fide starter and gamer at QB.  Look for Mark Dell and Deon Curry to be one of the best receiving duos in the Big 10, and if Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, and Kendall-Davis Clark can rally the troops on defense, they will be competitive in each and every game in 2008. 

Throw in Dantonio's defensive background as former DC for the Buckeyes, including their 2002 championship season, and the men in green should improve dramatically on that side of the ball.  State fans should have a lot to cheer bout in '08.  GO SPARTA!  

Iowa:  

I have listed four Big 10 teams and have not mentioned Michigan or Wisconsin you ask?  Absolutely. 

What does Iowa have other than a loyal fan base?    Well...they have 13 starters returning from a team that was less than spectacular last year.  Ask any Iowa fan if they were a bit disappointed in their team’s performance and the performance of their ‘stud’ QB recruit Jake Christensen last year and you will have likely hit a painful nerve.   

On the flip side, the Hawks have a pen chance for doing something good in years AFTER great expectations.  Last year, with Albert Young, Dominique Douglas, and a solid defense, the Hawks were going to make some noise in the Big 10.  Is 6-6 noise?  Is a 38-20 loss to Indiana noise?  Is a 13-15 loss to a 3-9 Iowa State team, considered noise? 

 Is Ferentz a good coach?  It is starting to get some debate, but I believe he is and so should Hawkeye fans.  This is a team that could challenge OSU for conference supremacy, but it isn’t likely to do so this season.  They will have one of the best Offensive Lines in the Big 10 behind OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin. 

They will also have two of the best DT's in the entire conference to anchor their DL in Mitch King and Matt Kroul.  Solid DT’s are the centerpiece of any great defense.  Throw in the rush end talent of Clayborn and Ballard, and you might have a legit sleeper in the Big 10 this year. 

If a WR, a LB, and CB can step up, this is a team of substance that can compete with anybody in the Big 10, maybe even nationally.    Fourth?  Yes.  This should be a solid return of the Hawkeyes to Big 10 relevance.  

Wisconsin: 

Always good, just always not good enough.  That is the Badgers in a nutshell.  I love everything about this program.  Honestly I do.  They do it the right way. 

Problem is, they just don't get enough difference makers to put them over the hump.  2008 is not any different.  Seventeen starters returning, a good coach, a solid tandem of running backs, a great offensive line, and a defense that is feisty.  Really?  Sounds like every other season since 1994 for the Badgers. 

Last year many a person had Wisconsin on their short list of National Title contenders after a 12-1 season and 16 starters returning.  Yours truly predicted at least three losses and was ridiculed by Badger fans across the nation.  Playing a schedule like they did in 2006 was very reminiscent of the Kansas schedule in 2007.   

So what do the Badgers have in store for 2008?  They will be good.  They always are.  Bielema is a solid coach, and they will be sound on both sides of the line.  What they lack in talent, they more than make up for in coaching and fundamentals.  But...I'm picking them fifth, ahead of Michigan, so what is my beef?  I have none. 

Just looks like another solid 9-4, 8-5 type season for the Badgers.  That usually means a .500 record in conference and a fourth to sixth place finish in the Big 10.  They get Ohio State and Penn State at home, but also have road games at Fresno State, Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan State. 

Once conference play starts, they do not get a break in which they play eight straight weeks of football.  That will wear on any team, especially in the physical Big 10.  On offense, they have the best receiving TE in the country in Travis Beckum.  They will also have one of the best RB rotations in PJ Hill, John Clay, and Lance Smith. 

And as always, they will have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the entire country.  What they won’t have is the gutsy signal calling of the departed Tyler Donovan.  Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer will battle it out for QB duties.  Neither will be as effective as Donovan was last year. 

On defense, the Badgers return nine guys including the tackling machine play-making abilities of Jonathan Casillas.  He won’t get much national, or maybe even conference attention, but he is a solid LB.  The DL is good, but far from great, and the loss of Jack Ikegwouonu at CB is as heavy a loss as anyone in the conference in the secondary. 

The Badgers simply don’t have anyone to replace him and his 15 PBUs (Pass Break Ups).  Chalk up another solid year for Wisconsin, and an appearance in the Champs, Alamo, or Insight Bowl. 

Michigan: 

They just lost everybody and their dog on the offensive side of the ball: Jake Long, Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington.  They also lost their four top tacklers on defense from last year.  They have a new coach; a coach that is bringing some baggage with him as well.  Sixth in the Big 10?  It may be a bit high.

On Defense, they lose Shawn Crable, who was their biggest playmaker on defense last year, along with the aforementioned top 4 tacklers.  The defense is not lacking any talent, and do return 7 starters including lock-down corner and AA candidate Morgan Trent, and opposite of him the physical Donovan Warren. 

The DL will be solid, and is likely the best in the Big 10.  LB on the other hand is the major concern.  There is plenty of talent, but it is largely unproven and pretty young as well.  If the Wolverines are to make a run at the Big 10 title, it will be the defense leading the way because....

On offense, what else can you say?  This is a rebuilding year.  Only three starters return and they will be implementing a new offense to boot.  There is some talent, and one should fully expect Michigan to patch together a solid offensive line, but QB, RB, and WR are huge question marks. 

Greg Matthews will likely step into the role as the No. 1 receiver.  The question is whether he is ready for double teams and the brunt of the workload at wideout.  RB will likely come down to a revolving door of talent in Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, Kevin Grady, and true freshman recruit Sam McGuffie. 

QB, however, is a whole 'nother story.  Steven Threet looks like the likely under center option, but that can’t get Michigan fans very excited.  The options facing the Wolverines at QB are a redshirt freshman (Threet), a lightly recruited DB transfer in Justin Feagin, a Sophomore walk-on in Nick Sheridan, a converted RB in Carlos Brown, or a redshirt Sophomore in David Cone (and no he isn’t a former major league pitcher). 

In all the Wolverines do not have a QB on their roster that has ever attempted, much less completed a pass in collegiate football.  Yes, you read that correctly.  ZERO pass attempts, ZERO completions for their entire returning QB depth chart.  Now you are going to throw a new offense at them?  An offense that none of them were recruited to perform in? 

Believe me, I’ve seen this before, and the results won’t be good.  Michigan will struggle mightily on the offensive side of the ball, and expect the possibility that Zoltan Mesko may at many times be their best option, and he is the punter. 

Michigan has enough talent to at least be competitive, but games with Utah, @ Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Penn State, Michigan State, @ Purdue, and @ Ohio State loom on their schedule.  That is eight games that Michigan could lose and nobody would be real surprised about. 

The Wolverines 40 year streak of consecutive winning seasons, and 33-year streak of consecutive bowl game appearances is in serious jeopardy in 2008.  Somehow, some way, I see them clawing and scratching their way to at least a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season record.  After all, they are still Michigan. 

Illinois: 

From the Rose Bowl to seventh in the conference?  Yep, that is where I see them.  The loss of Rashard Mendenhall, J. Leman, and five of their top seven tacklers will prove to be too great for the Illini to overcome in conference play.  They also have back to road games against Penn State and Michigan, and also play Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State. 

Juice Williams is an exciting QB to watch play, and Arrelious Benn is one of the most talented receivers in the country.  Unfortunately, they have an average offensive line in front of them, and a serious drop off in talent in the loss of RB Mendenhall.   A drop in offensive output should be expected. 

On defense, they return six starters, but as mentioned before are without five of their top seven tacklers from last year including heart and soul LB J Leman.  Vontae Davis is one of the best CB’s in the country, but he won’t have a whole lot of help with him. 

The DL will be improved but far from great, and the LB corps will severely miss their field general in Leman.  Throw in a much improved conference, a tougher schedule, and I fully expect a significant drop from the Illini in 2008.  They should still go bowling, but not much else should be expected from the Zooksters this year. 

Northwestern: 

I should probably have the Wildcats a bit higher in my rankings, but it is a bit difficult to put them in front of anybody else.  Such is the strength throughout the middle of the Big 10 this year. 

Starting the season the Wildcats could easily start out 4-0 with four relative cupcakes on the schedule.  Northwestern returns 15 starters including their undervalued QB CJ Bacher, and their crafty RB in Tyrell Sutton. 

The ‘Cats will score some points, but it will be their defense that determines just how good they will be in 2008.  On the defensive side of the ball, there just isn’t a whole lot of talent that scares anybody.  Likely if the ‘Cats are to go bowling again in ‘08; they will need to simply outscore some people.  Games against Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, and Illinois should offer them those opportunities.  

Minnesota: 

Even though Minnesota was 1-11 in Tim Brewster’s 1st year as head coach, it wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked.  Sure, they lost to a lower division opponent in North Dakota State, but so did Michigan. 

The loss to Florida Atlantic didn’t turn out to be that bad, and other than a 20-point loss to Indiana, a 23-point loss to Ohio State, a 24-point loss to Michigan, and a 27-point loss to Illinois, the Gophers were pretty damn competitive in the rest of their games. 

They get 15 starters returning including a solid Sophomore QB in Adam Weber.  They are still extremely young, but Brewster has these kids playing hard and believing.  They could also start out the season 4-0 before a trip to Ohio State. 

Sprinkled in amongst a solid first year recruiting class are some JUCOs that could make some waves for the Gophers in ’08 as well.  Tramaine Brock at FS should help shore up a porous secondary, and Tim McGee, and Cedric McKinley should be able to provide some much needed depth up front in the Gophers defensive front four. 

The Gophers should be able to score some points, and their defense really can’t get any worse since they ranked 119th out of 119 teams last year.  If things fall into place, the boys from Minneapolis could even go bowling in 2008. 

Tim Brewster looks like he will get this program moving back in the right direction again, and if early recruiting for the 2009 season is any indication, the Gophers could well be on their way to a top 25 recruiting class to build upon for next year as well.  Look for the Gophers to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2008.   

Purdue: 

10th in the conference for Purdue?  Sure.  They return one of the best QBs in the country in Curtis Painter and a sold RB in Kory Sheets, but they lose all everything WR Dorien Bryant and their go to TE Dustin Keller. 

On defense is where they are going to struggle the most.  Big 10 All-Conference LB candidate Anthony Heygood is back, but nobody else really strikes anybody as quality Big 10 defenders.  Even with those considerations, that isn’t the biggest concern in West Lafayette, IN this year. 

The schedule is the biggest problem.  Take a peek at this stretch of games.  At home vs. Oregon, vs. Central Michigan, @ Notre Dame, vs. Penn State, and @ Ohio State, and those are just games 2 through 6.  Throw in additional road games to Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and this is one of the toughest schedules in the country. 

They also play all their games in 12 consecutive weeks.  Very unlikely to foresee the Boilers going bowling in 2008, and with a possible 1-5 start to the season, things could get really ugly.  Rumors were that Joe Tiller was going to retire after this season.  He may not have a choice.  Purdue in '08?  Looks more like Purdon't. 

Indiana: 

From an inspiring bowl season to cellar dwellers?  Unfortunately, that is how I see it.  Losing James Hardy to the NFL was one thing.  Losing Kellen Lewis in the off-season was another. 

Coming off of their best season in well over a decade the Hoosiers were looking forward to the 3-headed punch of Lewis, Hardy, and Thigpen in ’08.  Now two out of the three are gone, and the Hoos don’t have anybody near the level of talent that these two guys had to replace them. 

Greg Middleton, the returning NCAA sack leader and all Big 10 DE is back.  But…expect that type of production to drop.  When you consider that Indiana’s strength will be their defense, then you can foresee some struggles in Bloomington in ’08.  It is hard to put them in the cellar because they simply aren’t that bad, but somebody has to lose, and this looks like the weakest team in the Big 10 this year. 

Again, another plus for the Big 10 if this is the worst team in their conference.  Yet another example of the parity that is now the norm in College Football.  

NOSTRADAMUS is the College Football director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com