The 2010 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Six Pack

Kinda funny that Dustin learned that he won the tournament from a bystander while eating a sandwich in the clubhouse last year. I wonder if it was a club sandwich…

Per usual, last week's Northern Trust Open was an excellent event to watch. Steve Stricker, one of the most respected talents on tour took home the trophy after almost letting this one get away from him. Stricker, known as a lethal assassin with his putter, definitely let some opportunities fly by in both the second and beginning of the fourth rounds. Regardless, he buckled down and held of JB Holmes, Luke Donald, and brilliant young talent Dustin Johnson.

Speaking of putting, did you see Kevin Stadler miss his standard-issue, basic two-foot putt on 18 to end his round? Cost of missing that putt: $38,000.

Welcome to Pebble Beach! Expect some chilly weather this weekend with highs expected to only be in the low 60s. Saturday could have some rain, so watch for your big hitters to make moves on Saturday (if they make the cut).

It can’t be worse than last year. The torrential wind and rain forced a cancellation of the final round, proclaiming Dustin Johnson victorious after three rounds. That was fine by me, as I picked DJ to win this event last year at a stellar 50:1 odds. I really want to break my rule of not picking people to repeat, because DJ will definitely be a player to watch this week.

For a pro-am, this field is actually pretty decent. I ended up having to slice and whittle 17 selections that were on my radar down to only six. It was a daunting task, but we got ‘er done and I am pleased with the results.

This week is value supreme.

On to Yahoo fantasy golf.

Currently I have 784 points and am ranked in the 74th percentile. I promise that will steadily increase. In my group, The Fans of Hunter Mahan, I am ranked in the 65th percentile. Last week, I hauled in 148 points, which is respectable. I am trailing most of the Yahoo experts at this time, but I am sure I will find a way to surge ahead as time moves on.

Here’s who I like this week:

GROUP A—I am starting the red hot Luke Donald and backing him up with the lukewarm Phil Mickelson

GROUP B—I will start the en fuego Dustin Johnson and South African standout Retief Goosen, while Alex Prugh and Jim Furyk keep the bench warm.

GROUP C—I am going to start no-brainer Mike Weir and back him up with the stealthy John Mallinger

Now let us delve into that corner of my mind known as The Six Pack…

No. 1—Luke Donald

Is anyone heating up more than this wily Englishman? I say not. Donald is definitely on the verge of something great. His wife is pregnant and due soon, so you know a victory basically secures the child’s future and will drive his motivation to win.

He is carrying more momentum than anyone, except perhaps Dustin Johnson and Alex Prugh. More on him later.

This event sees three different courses: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and this year will see The Monterey Peninsula Country Club host its first tour event ever. No course is excessively long, but one thing is for sure: All three courses will have LOTS of wind to contend with.

That basically favors a guy like Donald who happens to be first in sand saves at 90 % (Did you see that hole out from the bunker Sunday?) and is also third in scrambling. No doubt he can get up and down from tight spots.

Donald is eighth on money list with $704,521 and also ranks 13th in putts per round at 28. His recent play has been marginal, except for last week’s runner up finish at Riviera. He has been on my radar early this year, and this could be his week.

Donald has only played in this event five times and has not been here for two years. He has two cuts, but if he makes the cut, it is a T-25 guaranteed, and he also locked down a T-7 back in 2006.

At 26:1, Donald is my favorite in this range this week.

No. 2—Mike Weir

When you think of someone who has been tried and true at this event, Mike Weir has to pop into your head. He’s almost “Fred Couples at Riviera"-like, if you catch my drift. Weir has seven top-10s in 12 trips to Pebble Beach.

That my friends, is consistency personified.

Yes, Weir is coming off a disappointing cut last week, but he did fare well at the Pro-Am known as the Bob Hope Classic a few weeks ago by placing sixth. This shows he likes the pro-am format and usually fares well in them. You also need to realize ALL of Weir's rounds this year have been in the sixties, EXCEPT his second round at Riviera, which was an almost unheard of 77. Weir only had three rounds that were 77 or higher in all of 2009, so let’s take last week with a grain of salt, shall we?

Weir is fourth in putts per round at 27.57, second in sand saves at 83 %, eighth in scoring average at 68.57 strokes, and seventh in all-around ranking. These stats prove that he is a leader in recovering from bad situations (in case the wind pops up) and that he also possesses the two most important skills necessary to win tournaments: putting, and EVERYTHING else!

Weir has done everything BUT win at Pebble, including two T-2’s and two T-3’s. I think this may be his year, and at 28:1 odds, how can you say “No”?

No. 3—Kevin Na

Kevin, as usual, is flying under the radar and not catching the attention of the odds makers.

We are OK with this.

He is a perfect three for three in cuts made this year, and is trending up nicely with two top-10s in 2k10 already. For you newbies, that means he’s, uh, playing pretty well right now.

Na’s track record certainly leaves something to be desired in this event, with his best finish being a T-43 in 2008. I think the skill set that Na possesses should set him up for success in a multi-location event, after all he just placed eighth at the Bob Hope Classic, which is a multi location pro-am as well. The fact that he is in the field at an event he does not play great at, tells me he’s got a score to settle with this place.

So far in ’10 Na remains one of the best putters on tour, ranking eighth in putts per round at 27.69. He is very capable of going low and possibly VERY low, ranking 10th in actual scoring average at 68.62 strokes. The way he gets those low scores is by breaking par. Something he ranks 20th in at 25.64 percent.

The real attraction Na this week is his recent play, his skill set, and did I mention he has 51:1 odds of winning?

No. 4—Marc Leishman

It was simply a matter of time before last year’s Rookie of the Year made his debut in the esteemed BLJ Six Pack. Time has finally come to acknowledge this young man, and the game he brings.

Marc has lit it up so far in 2k10, going a perfect three for three in cuts made. All three performances have been in the top 25, and one of which was a runner-up at Torrey Pines a couple of weeks ago. I say strike while the iron is hot, and this kid's iron is smoking hot right now.

Leishman ranks 14th in actual scoring average with 68.92 strokes per round and is 11th in Fed Ex Cup Points with 311. If the wind gives him trouble, I love the fact that he can recover. He ranks 27th in scrambling so far this year.

This talented Aussie cannot be overlooked, especially with the magnificent value and high odds. He has 51:1 odds of winning it all this week.

No. 5—Alex Prugh

Right now 89 % of you are forming the question in their heads, “Who the heck is Alex Prugh?”

Luke Donald and DJ may be red-hot, but this guy HAS to be at the top of the heat-o-meter in the PGA right now.

This Nationwide grad has come from out of nowhere and suddenly finds himself ranked 13th in FedEx Cup points, with 273. A relatively unknown Washingtonian who can smash the ball off the tee equals a stealthy value filled pick in this week’s sixer.

Prugh has made all four of his cuts this year, and guess what? THREE of those have been top ten finishes! That is truly remarkable. This will mark his first trip to Pebble Beach, and I expect him to carry his momentum right to the top of the leader board this week.

Alex ranks ninth in driving distance at 294 yards, which will help him shorten the playing field. He is currently sixth in actual scoring average with 68.5 strokes per round, carries a fourth in all-around ranking, and also is third in total birdies with 70. With stats like these, you can almost hand him the trophy now.

Hopefully he keeps doing what he’s been doing, because you can easily still find him at 66:1 odds right now.

No. 6—John Mallinger

Okay, okay, I know he’s not the sexiest pick out there, and he will probably not find his way into the six pack again in 2010, BUT if there is one event to look at this guy, it is the AT&T Pro-Am in Pebble Beach.

The only slightly attractive statistic about Mallinger this year is his driving accuracy. He ranks 16th with 71.17 percent of fairways hit.

That being said, he has missed all three cuts he has been in this year. His last two events last year saw him place T-55th, and another gruesome cut.

Why would I ever pick someone who is A) playing badly, and B) has such a high-cut percentage?

The answer is simple.

It is his track record at this event.

He has played here three times. The first time, he came in third, the second time, he placed third, and the third time he came in 33rd. The real curiosity here is the timing of this event and his past history.

Mallinger has historically come into this event playing HORRIBLE golf. After this event, his woeful ways continue. But for some unknown reason, he seems to show up here in February and play well.

He may appear as the darkest of dark horses, but to me at 126:1 odds, how can you say no to him?

Good luck everyone.