By Derek Lofland.
One of the biggest dilemmas for Fantasy Football Owners is trying to decide whether a breakout player was just a flash in the pan or a rising star that gave us a glimpse of great things to come.
It happens every year, a player finishes the season with a good five or six-game stretch and is suddenly elevated to first round status.
In 2008, Houston Texans RB Steve Slaton had 1,282 yards rushing and scored nine rushing touchdowns. He also added 50 receptions for 377 yards and one receiving touchdown. Being a rookie, many people thought that 2010 would offer 1,800 to 2,000 combined yards and 12-15 total touchdowns, making him a popular first round or early second round pick. He responded with only 437 yards rushing, 417 yards receiving and seven touchdowns, four of which came in two games. People that picked him in the first or second round were having buyer’s remorse by early October.
Conversely, Titans RB Chris Johnson had 1,228 yards rushing, 260 yards receiving and 10 total touchdowns in 2008. He was also a popular late first round to early second round choice. He responded with 2,006 yards rushing, 503 yards receiving and 16 touchdowns. Had people known what he was going to do, he would have been the first pick in the draft. People that found him in the second round found a steal.
Running back is a difficult position to predict, because each year college players burst out of nowhere to post amazing numbers and backs that were effective the year before just cannot stay healthy or effective two years in a row. Running back is a position that it is relatively easy to have one good year, but the average running back is lucky to make it three years in the NFL. Star players can become memories in a short period of time. With running backs typically being the top scorers in most fantasy formats, the good running backs usually go in the first two rounds and it makes the consequences of picking a bust even more painful...